I don’t think it’s all on Fred either..... he has not been good but the team buckles easily under pressure on top of that.... there is more rotten here than just goaltending from what I can see.
I guess it depends on what you call "rotten". I don't think even the most enthusiastic analytic user here would call the Leafs much better than average defensively. But I don't think the goaltending statistics are lying. We've had bottom tier goaltending performances almost all season, but average to average plus defensive impact performances (aided by being a strong possession team while at the same time both not taking a lot of penalties and limiting chances on the PK at a league leading rate). The most rotten thing about our defensive performance imo is that it's been missing it's #1 defender for a month now, which is something that most teams are going to struggle with.
Basically, I don't think the .888 sv% we've received since January 1st is unfair to the level of goaltending we've received, and I don't think there's a whole lot that any team can do to look pleasing to the eye test on a defensive level when you're getting goaltending like that.
I mean, here's the workload statistics over the same period of time
Per 60:
14th in shot attempts against
13th in shots against
21st in chances against
15th in high danger chances against
Which combined, ranks us 11th in expected goals against
So nobody is going to confuse us with the Brodeur era Devils, but we're pretty comfortably average overall in shot volume and quality metrics.
Going the other way:
9th in shot attempts
10th in shots
3rd in chances
3rd in high danger chances
3rd in expected goals for
The problem is pretty clearly:
29th in SV%
Game after game we see goalies at the other end making stops that "you can't blame Freddy for that" when they end up in our net. The Pittsburgh game is a good example. We didn't play well and looked asleep for extended stretches. 2 of the goals against were varying degrees of ugly and 3 would have required great reads/great saves. But at the other end, Jarry made 2-3 of those types of stops. Nobody seems to think it's abnormal with the opposition goalie does it, but becomes abnormal to expect any of those types of stops at our end.
I'm open to the idea that there are holes in the analysis of the metrics. A couple of those Pittsburgh goals last night were "high danger chances" but they crossed the dreaded "royal road" before the shot, which we know statistically elevates the chance of it going in. I don't think xG accounts for puck movement before the shot. But what I don't think is possible here is that what isn't accounted for in xG, lighting the entire concept of shot location being a rough approximation for shot quality and pissing on it. Especially when even a moderately informed eye test can easily point out a slow, lazy performance by Fred this year. He's tracking pucks terribly, he's challenging shooters poorly, he's lazy post to post, he's an adventure with the puck way too often. On top of that, anyone who saw Hutch play and doesn't see a scrambling mess the majority of the time should take up watching Tennis instead.
