The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

[zeke]

yeah Risto is irredeemable statistically, even moreso than a guy like Ceci was. and that contract.

this can't happen.

 

[Preston]

Yeah if Dubas does that my love affair with him is over

 

[Preston]

 

[zeke]

pass

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

I feel like claiming a team doesn't have an identity is what you say when you have no idea whats actually wrong

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

Craigory Button listed the 3 problems of Toronto. Never once used the word goaltending

 

[JackBurton]

 

[TinCow]

I guess it depends on what you call "rotten". I don't think even the most enthusiastic analytic user here would call the Leafs much better than average defensively. But I don't think the goaltending statistics are lying. We've had bottom tier goaltending performances almost all season, but average to average plus defensive impact performances (aided by being a strong possession team while at the same time both not taking a lot of penalties and limiting chances on the PK at a league leading rate). The most rotten thing about our defensive performance imo is that it's been missing it's #1 defender for a month now, which is something that most teams are going to struggle with.

Basically, I don't think the .888 sv% we've received since January 1st is unfair to the level of goaltending we've received, and I don't think there's a whole lot that any team can do to look pleasing to the eye test on a defensive level when you're getting goaltending like that.

I mean, here's the workload statistics over the same period of time

Per 60:

14th in shot attempts against
13th in shots against
21st in chances against
15th in high danger chances against
Which combined, ranks us 11th in expected goals against

So nobody is going to confuse us with the Brodeur era Devils, but we're pretty comfortably average overall in shot volume and quality metrics.

Going the other way:

9th in shot attempts
10th in shots
3rd in chances
3rd in high danger chances
3rd in expected goals for

The problem is pretty clearly:

29th in SV%

Game after game we see goalies at the other end making stops that "you can't blame Freddy for that" when they end up in our net. The Pittsburgh game is a good example. We didn't play well and looked asleep for extended stretches. 2 of the goals against were varying degrees of ugly and 3 would have required great reads/great saves. But at the other end, Jarry made 2-3 of those types of stops. Nobody seems to think it's abnormal with the opposition goalie does it, but becomes abnormal to expect any of those types of stops at our end.

I'm open to the idea that there are holes in the analysis of the metrics. A couple of those Pittsburgh goals last night were "high danger chances" but they crossed the dreaded "royal road" before the shot, which we know statistically elevates the chance of it going in. I don't think xG accounts for puck movement before the shot. But what I don't think is possible here is that what isn't accounted for in xG, lighting the entire concept of shot location being a rough approximation for shot quality and pissing on it. Especially when even a moderately informed eye test can easily point out a slow, lazy performance by Fred this year. He's tracking pucks terribly, he's challenging shooters poorly, he's lazy post to post, he's an adventure with the puck way too often. On top of that, anyone who saw Hutch play and doesn't see a scrambling mess the majority of the time should take up watching Tennis instead.

Sounds great.... but is it a realistic hope to offload Andersen and trade for a legit #1 goalie for a push to the playoffs?

 

[Artnes]

It depends on if Bowman is interested in having a gap stop next year until he finds a permanent replacement and believe Anderson will bounce back (he will)

Unless Lehner caves in his demands he likely hits UFA and it’s not worth the risk of not getting an asset for him at the deadline if that’s the case

It’s an ideal move for both sides

 

[MindzEye]

Sounds great.... but is it a realistic hope to offload Andersen and trade for a legit #1 goalie for a push to the playoffs?

Depends on what the asking price for Lehner is I guess.

Whether it's realistic or not, it's the only personnel decision that would make the impact being screamed for in Toronto right now. Pay out the ass for the best shot suppressing RHD in the league and he's going to look bad in front of .888% goaltending. We'd be right back where we started with the media raging about identity, dedication, and whatever bullshit they use to make themselves feel like they have a clue what's actually going on out there.

 

[TinCow]

I feel like claiming a team doesn't have an identity is what you say when you have no idea whats actually wrong

What is the Leafs identity then?

 

[Artnes]

Why does a team need an identity period

 

[MindzEye]

What is the Leafs identity then?

An elite offensive team with decent but just decent defensive chops that moves the puck real gud through all 3 zones, and gets horrific goaltending.

 

[MindzEye]

Why does a team need an identity period

It doesn't, put people need their easy to digest tropes and narratives.

 

[TinCow]

Depends on what the asking price for Lehner is I guess.

Whether it's realistic or not, it's the only personnel decision that would make the impact being screamed for in Toronto right now. Pay out the ass for the best shot suppressing RHD in the league and he's going to look bad in front of .888% goaltending. We'd be right back where we started with the media raging about identity, dedication, and whatever bullshit they use to make themselves feel like they have a clue what's actually going on out there.

I’m all for kicking Fred out the door as he is just too much of a Jekyll and Hyde, but I just can’t get excited about this D group.

Muzzin and Sandin I like

 

[soco22]

Easier to just not listen to media in Toronto while things are like this. Too many dumbasses out there

 

[MindzEye]

I’m all for kicking Fred out the door as he is just too much of a Jekyll and Hyde, but I just can’t get excited about this D group.

Muzzin and Sandin I like

It was never meant to be a finished product. Barrie and Ceci only being signed through the year and all.

I do though have to question anyone who doesn't like Rielly. Criminally under rated in Toronto, legit #1. Holl is also solid as a #4.

If you were the GM of Seattle and had the opportunity to poach any blueline in the league to start your team with: Rielly-Muzzin-Holl-Dermott-Sandin-Lilly might not be the first one you pick, but there aren't that many in front of it. It's short a #2-3 type RHD, but the bones are way better than people suggest.

 

[TinCow]

It doesn't, put people need their easy to digest tropes and narratives.

hey now lol.

I really enjoy watching teams with rough tough identities.

hitting, trash talking, face rubs and the odd fight make for a great game (especially if the skill level is high as well).... and it often helps throw a team off a game plan that might be working a little too well against you.

 

[TinCow]

Easier to just not listen to media in Toronto while things are like this. Too many dumbasses out there

I don’t need the Toronto media to tell me what kind of Dmen I like.

 

[MindzEye]

hey now lol.

That wasn't aimed at you specifically, more of a shot at popular hockey thought in general.

I really enjoy watching teams with rough tough identities.


hitting, trash talking, face rubs and the odd fight make for a great game (especially if the skill level is high as well).... and it often helps throw a team off a game plan that might be working a little too well against you.

and I have no qualm with this in general as a preference. As a general team building philosophy, there are obvious examples of it's success in recent years. Where it loses the plot with me though is when it's spoken about as if it's the only way to win or be successful in the NHL when that doesn't stand up to scrutiny. A number of cup champions over the last 10 years have featured a boat load of speed and skill without very much sandpaper. The back to back Pittsburgh team was small and fast (if we're looking for an "identity") but highly skilled. The Hawks Cup winning teams could be called intense and competitive. But Andrew Shaw was the closest thing they had to a physical forward. Toews is "hard to play against" but he's not physical in the way that most people consider physical. They had a boatload of speed and skill though.

So yeah, stuff you're talking about, if blended with a sufficient amount of speed and skill can be successful (St Louis and Washington are kind of the modern iterations of that blend), but it all starts with speed and skill. If you're chasing the puck all night, you lose.

Fwiw, I personally prefer puck possession oriented, speed and skill as the core of a team. One of the biggest reasons for that though is a trend that I don't see slowing down. There are just fewer and fewer big, physical players that can keep up with high skilled burners entering the league every year. The game is getting faster, with a higher skill threshold. There are fewer and fewer players who play with a noticeable amount of grit, toughness, physicality etc. Chasing a shrinking group of players, many of whom don't have the hockey skills to provide value with the puck, is a bad investment imo.