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The many possible paydays of Seth Jarvis

NoMich

NoMich

Well-known member
What’s a Jarvis going for nowadays?

Despite the drama involving Martin Necas this offseason, the biggest contract concern the Carolina Hurricanes are looking at has to do with their breakout winger Seth Jarvis. Charismatic and entertaining in a league filled with generic player robots, Jarvis has quickly endeared himself to the Hurricanes fanbase, but his entry-level contract is up this offseason, and both the team and the fans seem to want to secure him for the long term with an eight year contract — the longest currently allowed by the collective bargaining agreement. But what might that contract look like? Buckle in — it’s going to get statistical.
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Thanks for sharing that!

An 8 year deal for Jarvis with the rising cap I would say would be fair at $8 - 8.5 million AAV. It should definitely be higher than Svech's number, both because Jarvis does a heck of a lot more out there than Svech does AND because of inflation of salaries.

A 2 year deal would be something like $4-5 million AAV. 3 Years $5-6 million AAV. 5 Years $6-7 million AAV.

I have no idea what Jarvis is going to do here. If he elects to 'bet on himself' and take the bridge 2 Years at $4.5 million AAV (something like $3.5 million than $5.5 million), if he goes and puts up 30 goals, 70 points with +D numbers and PK numbers, to me he still peaks at $8-9 million AAV on a long term deal as a winger. If the Canes offer 8x$8, I don't think it would be smart for Jarvis to not jump at that. Is there really an 80 point+potential there that would demand $9+ million AAVs? I don't see it.

Sure Dom's valuations are going to say Jarvis is a $10 million+ player because of his positive D work, but no one is going to pay him $10 million unless he becomes a 40 goal player.
 
Yeah, one thing Tom never really gets to until the very end of that long-ass blog is that Jarvis adds value off the puck at a rate much higher than any of his logical comparables. That's why the stats models show his value so much higher than you'd think based on his counting stats alone. And that makes it tough to project the outcome. Put it this way, Carolina would be thrilled to get Jarvis on a 5 to 8 year deal at something like Svech's number adjusted for cap inflation. And Jarvis would probably be wise to look at something a bit more like $5-6 million for 2 or 3 years. That's a huge chunk of change and still allows him to revisit his contract before he hits the open market. But most players end up digging in for the long term security when they get the chance. 8 by $8.5 mil is my best guess for the ultimate outcome here.
 
My only concern with Jarvis would be durability, love the player, love the compete level, hate the fact that he is a smaller build and the body could be prone to lots of future injuries based on how he likes to play the game fearlessly. The bridge deal might be where the two sides end up, but most Canes fans would probably be happier with a Svech-like contract in terms of length and term. His defensive game has improved so much that he has turned into a great two way player but I agree with CMal that I do not see a 80+ point potential and a monster number contract there.
 
Travis Konecny just got 8x$8.75
TheBigKahuna said:
I don't think he's an $8.5m player, even at 8 years.
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Travis Konecny just got 8 x $8.75. He is coming off the best season of his NHL career, 76 Games 33 Goals 35 Assists. He is 5'10" 192

Jarvis is coming off his best season. 81 Games 33 Goals 34 Assists. He is also 5'10" but a slighter 172 (although I suspect he is going to be bigger than that come next season.

Konecny of course is coming off back to back 30 goals seasons, not just one 30 goal season. If you want to try to say that Jarvis's 33 goals last season are 'different' because his shooting% was a probably unsustainable 18.8%, I could accept that argument. Both Konecny and Jarvis kill penalties around the same amount.

But Jarvis at $8 million AAV is not a stretch.
 
Put it this way ... Konecny is 27 years old with 8 NHL seasons played. He took until years 7 and 8 to peak, where as Jarvis hit pretty much that same kind of level in his third year. Even if Konecny is worth $8.5 mil AAV now (and based on the market, he is), then he'll have diminishing returns by the last 2-3 years of that contract term. Even if Jarvis is worth say $5.5-6 million right now, he'll have growing value over the course of an 8 year deal ... and would be 30 at the end of it, so you're not paying for subprime years. That's how the math works on these things.
 
It's pretty easy to get to $8 million for Jarvis if they need to. LTIR Fast, or punt a couple of guys to the AHL and you're there. I've got a sneaking suspicion that he's going to go with the bridge though. So it may not matter as much.
 
I would think that Jarvis' accountant would be telling Jarvis and his agent that money (the signing bonus he will get) in the bank is generally best secured ASAP. Really that is the only motivation for Jarvis signing sooner rather than later other than the risk he suffers a devasting injury before he signs a contract. On the Canes side it's kind of the same situation. Dundon I'm sure is in no rush to part with that signing bonus. No Arbitration kind of allows the process to go very slowly.

There is zero on the calendar that makes getting a deal signed anytime in August a pressing issue so neither side is in any rush. Still 6 weeks until camp.

Jarvis isn't the only RFA of consequence that is still unsigned:

Jeromy Swayman
Lucas Raymond
Moritz Seider
Cole Sillinger
Thomas Harley
Dawson Mercer
Cole Perfetti
Matthew Berniers
Nic Robertson

They will all get done, but it could be anytime between today and Sept 20th really. Or later if things get contentious.
 
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cmaleski2 said:
I would think that Jarvis' accountant would be telling Jarvis and his agent that money (the signing bonus he will get) in the bank is generally best secured ASAP. Really that is the only motivation for Jarvis signing sooner rather than later other than the risk he suffers a devasting injury before he signs a contract. On the Canes side it's kind of the same situation. Dundon I'm sure is in no rush to part with that signing bonus. No Arbitration kind of allows the process to go very slowly.

There is zero on the calendar that makes getting a deal signed anytime in August a pressing issue so neither side is in any rush. Still 6 weeks until camp.

Jarvis isn't the only RFA of consequence that is still unsigned:

Jeromy Swayman
Lucas Raymond
Moritz Seider
Cole Sillinger
Thomas Harley
Dawson Mercer
Cole Perfetti
Matthew Berniers
Nic Robertson

They will all get done, but it could be anytime between today and Sept 20th really. Or later if things get contentious.
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Detroit paying up for both Seider and Raymond all at once is going to sting...maybe one bridge and one long one to balance it out?
 
A couple of loosely comparable players to Jarvis in that pile. That might be one thing he's waiting on.
 
CanadaCanes said:
Detroit paying up for both Seider and Raymond all at once is going to sting...maybe one bridge and one long one to balance it out?
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They've got $17 million in cap space. I'm sure they'll survive paying market rate for two proven young players
 
Another side note on the Jarvis contract situation, Elliott Friedman from Sportsnet mentioned this in his most recent 32 Thoughts segment: "I have a theory that Carolina’s extension with Jarvis is not far from done, possibly delayed because GM Eric Tulsky continues to tinker."
 
I'll say it again ... Friedman has no contacts within the Canes organization now that Waddell is gone, so anything he's speculating about is sourced from his imagination. The traditional hockey press has built up this image of Tulsky in their own minds and will just keep banging that drum ... probably until the end of time. It's not in Carolina's interests to delay and it IS in Jarvis' interests to delay as it is literally his only point of leverage ... and Occam's razor is still a thing.
 
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