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The Motherfucking 2021 Playoffs Thread

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
Oh he's still good.

CBJ Forwards (13 with 20+gms)

#10) toi
#2) 22.3 dzs%
#13) 6.7 ozs%
#1) +14.1 zs% diff

#4) xG qoc
#4) xgar qoc
#10) toi qoc

#1) -3.8 xga/60 relative to team
#7) +0.2 xgf% relative to team

Despite some of the toughest usage on the team, he was still their best defensive player.

Weren't you the one who told me to ignore relative statistics on bad teams?

The rest of that tells me that he's getting rinsed against 2nd line competition in a limited defensive role.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
This enabled him to be tied for 13th in hockey in the defensive component of evolving-hockey.com's xGAR, despite only playing 37gms.

Same guys who projected the Habs to win the division...

yeah, that makes me feel better.
 

zeke

Well-known member
I think it's hilarious that after the best leafs season ever you guys suddenly think dubas and Keefe are idiots, and will ignore all evidence to the contrary.
 

MyNameIsJonas

Well-known member
I think it's hilarious that after the best leafs season ever you guys suddenly think dubas and Keefe are idiots, and will ignore all evidence to the contrary.
This is fair, but it's also fair that you are optimistic as fuck no matter what is going on with all the teams you like.
 

trujaysfan

Well-known member
The lineup battles appear to be:

Engvall vs nash
Gally vs kerfoot
Bogo vs dermott

Everyone else is in the lineup or emergency
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
I think it's hilarious that after the best leafs season ever you guys suddenly think dubas and Keefe are idiots, and will ignore all evidence to the contrary.


Since when is this suddenly? I spent all summer saying that bringing Freddy back had very real torpedo potential and questioning whether Dubas had blinked and over reacted to a goofy as fuck 5 game play in last spring. Fast forward to the deadline and with an elite or near elite team defence, a sputtering as fuck powerplay and one good goalie, we spent a not insignificant amount of resources on gritty defensive help while ignoring (or at the least insufficiently addressing) our actual areas of need.

So cool, but I've held to the opinion for a long time now that the gritty, defence only players that the media jerks off to are generally useless . My team jumping on that bus doesn't change that I think it's a mistake.

You know that it's possible to be happy about some things (by far the best group of elite talent to wear the blue and white in the modern era, team defensive structure I don't think I've ever seen in my life as a Leaf fan, the unlikely Jack Campbell franchise record breaking performance) and still be unhappy about other things (a 3rd line that is built to score 0 goals in the playoffs, Jack having no safety net, a keystone cops level power play), right?

At this point, I don't care about being right, just fucking win. But if we beat two weak teams in the north and then get spanked by the first good team we play in a series that no one not named Auston Matthews scores goals (and then, only at 5v5), I become very worried that we trend further towards gudproville instead of adding more skill like we should have.
 
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leafman101

Well-known member
I think the gudpro stuff is way overstated. We arguably have the most skilled 1st, 2nd and 4th lines in the league. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Hyman, Spezza, Thornton. There are only two gudpro's in the mix there, and both have been good analytically. And the D is all skill with Sandin over Bogosian.

I think the 3rd line is the only line that isn't optimized. I have no problem with adding Nash, but Kerfoot has been our worst forward this year by a lot. The only reason to leave him in is he takes faceoffs on the PK, but I assume Nash can do that. Nash isn't very good, but Kerfoot has just been a bad 3rd line center this year that you have to avoid getting caught on the ice against top lines.

I'd put Galchenyuk back in, and go with the Hyman-Nash-Mikheyev third line.
 

leafman101

Well-known member
I also argued they should dump Freddy last offeason because it was a good goalie class, but none of those guys ended up moving teams. By GSAx, the three best goalies that moved in the last year and a half are Campbell, Lehner and Hutch. By save% Campbell and Hutch are top 2.

Dubnyk, Allen, Griess, Talbot, Holtby, Markstrom, Murray were all worse than Campbell and Hutch this year.

Looking purely at the stats Dubas did really good with goalies and it saved the season. No long term contracts, no key assets traded, just added cheap, undervalued talent and it worked.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Since when is this suddenly? I spent all summer saying that bringing Freddy back had very real torpedo potential and questioning whether Dubas had blinked and over reacted to a goofy as **** 5 game play in last spring. Fast forward to the deadline and with an elite or near elite team defence, a sputtering as **** powerplay and one good goalie, we spent a not insignificant amount of resources on gritty defensive help while ignoring (or at the least insufficiently addressing) our actual areas of need.

So cool, but I've held to the opinion for a long time now that the gritty, defence only players that the media jerks off to are generally useless . My team jumping on that bus doesn't change that I think it's a mistake.

You know that it's possible to be happy about some things (by far the best group of elite talent to wear the blue and white in the modern era, team defensive structure I don't think I've ever seen in my life as a Leaf fan, the unlikely Jack Campbell franchise record breaking performance) and still be unhappy about other things (a 3rd line that is built to score 0 goals in the playoffs, Jack having no safety net, a keystone cops level power play), right?

At this point, I don't care about being right, just fucking win. But if we beat two weak teams in the north and then get spanked by the first good team we play in a series that no one not named Auston Matthews scores goals (and then, only at 5v5), I become very worried that we trend further towards gudproville instead of adding more skill like we should have.


Yeah freddy has been poop this year, and so has Kuemper. meanwhile Driedger and Nedjelovic and CAMPBELL have been amazing. And unlike those teams our team is actually starting the hot goalie in the playoffs. but keep yelling at our front office about it.


Defense first players are useless, except when they're TJ Brodie. But why trust the GM who brings him in when he gets other defense first players later in the year?

Riley Nash has been a key member for both teams that have beat us in the playoffs the last 3 years, and you're going nuts because he might play over Galchenyuk and Engvall who couldn't keep a regular nhl spot even before we traded for Nash?



Team Ranks this year:

#4 5v5 goals for
#4 5v5 expected goals for
#10 PP goals for
#1 PP expected goals for

#6 5v5 goals against
#10 5v5 expected goals against
#16 PK goals against
#8 PK expected goals against

looks like targeting defense at the deadline was the right move.
 

Preston

The Artist Formerly Known as Goldust
Have seen a few nerds speculate recently that defense-first guys are kinda market inefficiencies. They're usually far cheaper than the one-dimensional offensive guys yet bring similar value, especially for a team already loaded with offensive talent.

I completely get the reasoning. My only question is whether he went too far in the Foligno vs Hall thing. I've got no issues with Nash though. He's great and absolutely should be given a real shot; the time to do that is the first two rounds to see if he can establish himself. They're not going to lose a series against Montreal because Riley Nash played over Engvall. They may lose against Colorado if they never gave Riley Nash a chance to establish himself in the first two rounds though. In a series like that Riley becomes absolutely crucial if he can get his game together and shake off the rust with a new team.

They are using analytics pretty strongly to base their decisions off of. They haven't deviated from that. The only thing that has changed is that they are looking for a bit of a different mix than in prior years. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. But I disagree with the "gudpro, Dubas abandoning nerdies" shit that is thrown around out there. We'll find out soon if it was the right approach. I sure as fuck don't know but I also know better than to doubt the man with glasses.
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Dermott can also play on the right side. Prior to this season, Bogosian was struggling to play with anyone, anywhere on the ice. Amazing that he gets put with an analytics darling on the 3rd pairing (well...and everywhere else...every LHD on our blueline is excellent in their role) and he looks a whole lot better.


When you say Bogosian was “struggling to play with anyone” prior to this season...does that also include his time with Tampa last year? I thought he generally did well in his role there.

What he did in the hockey career graveyard called “Buffalo” matters a lot less to me than what he’s done for us this year, and what he did in a similar role during Tampa’s Cup run.

And yes, Dermott is capable of playing on the right side. The question is if he can do it well, and if he can do it better than Bogosian, and I’m unconvinced.


Yeah, about that.

CF%
Engvall: 51.06
Nash: 48.5%

GF%
Engvall: 54.25%
Nash: 44.4%

xGF%

Engvall: 53.64%
Nash: 43.67%

HDCF%

Engvall: 52.43%
Nash: 41.44%


I don't care what role you're playing on what team, Nash has been dreadful this year, and that's playing mostly on the 4th line. It's one thing entirely if they guy came in, got some regular season reps and looked good in them. This is a reputation hire of a guy well past his best before date.


I’m not sure how useful it is to do a comparison of raw possession stats in this case. On the one hand, you’ve got a guy who’s mostly played center and been eating the toughest minutes on his team on one of the worst teams in the league.

On the other hand, you’ve got a guy who’s mostly played on the wing in butter soft sheltered minutes on one of the best teams in the league.
 

zeke

Well-known member
And yes, Dermott is capable of playing on the right side. The question is if he can do it as well as Bogosian, and I’m unconvinced.

there's also a question of who is better on the PK.

i'm not sure on the causation but our PK nerdies dropped at the end of the year.
 
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