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The Motherfucking 2021 Season Thread

leafman101

Well-known member
Yeah I wouldn't put too much stock into the game 1 roster. Don't forget Spezza sat out game 1 last year.

They have a lot of NHL bodies on D, and the cap to deal with. The first lineup won't be the last lineup.
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
If what has been said about him by Euro observers is true, Lehtonen will quickly pass the likes of Bogo Dermott and Holl.

If not...he'd be a long way from the first vet Euro who finds out just how tough the world's top league is.
 

Habsy

Yes, I'm kidding people.
Staff member
Yeah I wouldn't put too much stock into the game 1 roster. Don't forget Spezza sat out game 1 last year.

They have a lot of NHL bodies on D, and the cap to deal with. The first lineup won't be the last lineup.
The games will be ugly for a week or two also. Fans will need to understand that.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Dom's updated final roster team projections.

4. TOR .578
10. MTL .534
12. EDM .517
14. CGY .516
21. VAN .481
22. WPG .480
31. OTT .379
 

zeke

Well-known member
Top-100 Leafs - note that this is better described as "most projected value given their role and usage" rather than just "best player".

#1 Matthews
#2 McDavid
#3 Pastrnak
#4 Kucherov
#5 MacKinnon
#6 Marchand
#7 Panarin
#8 Draisaitl
#9 Point
#10 Stamkos
#11 Bergeron
#12 Malkin
#13 Pettersson
#14 Stone
#15 Crosby
#16 Marner
#17 Hedman
#18 Hamilton
#19 Guentzel
#20 Tavares
#21 Aho
#22 Eichel
#23 Makar
#24 Josi
#25 Hall

#55 Nylander
#72 Rielly



Interesting how forwards seem to be more valuable than dmen in general.
 

Volcanologist

Well-known member
Interesting the disparity between McDavid and Draisaitl. I don't think either is the best player because they don't play a lick of defence. They're the top offensive/powerplay players in the league, sure.

I think Matthews has to win some hardware to be the best player in the league. Stamkos is too high as well. I don't see him as a top 10 forward anymore.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Interesting the disparity between McDavid and Draisaitl. I don't think either is the best player because they don't play a lick of defence. They're the top offensive/powerplay players in the league, sure.

I think Matthews has to win some hardware to be the best player in the league. Stamkos is too high as well. I don't see him as a top 10 forward anymore.

Thing with Stamkos is that his pure production is still pretty insane. And remember a large part of these values is pure PP value - and you get more value if you're projected for more PP minutes.

But I agree - my gut says that Stamkos is stealing some of Point's value there and Point should be higher and Stamkos lower.

Thing with McDavid and drai is that a lot is riding on previous years - their defense seems to be declining and last year was their worst year analytically.
 

zeke

Well-known member
Based on his values, the Leafs roster should be more like this (more from best to worst than actual lines):

Nylander 2.43 - Matthews 4.59 - Marner 3.48
Mikheyev 1.05 - Tavares 3.16 - Hyman 1.71
Anderson 0.31 - Kerfoot 0.62 - Boyd 0.56
Vesey 0.30 - Engvall 0.29 - Spezza 0.21
(Barabanov 0.20 - Thornton -0.27 - Simmonds -0.04)

Rielly 2.27 - Brodie 1.16
Muzzin 1.33 - Dermott 0.60
Lehtonen 0.20 - Holl 0.47
(Sandin -0.16 - Bogosian -0.18)
 

leaffan2005

Well-known member
I like the things I am hearing from Keefe leading up to this season. He seems to have recognized that you can't just play soft kids up and down the lineup without having a bit of sandpaper and leadership mixed in. Also like how hard they are seemingly going in every practice so they can hit the ground running in this shortened season.

Now it will be up to the core guys to get their shit together and put forward some semblance of consistency on a nightly basis.
 
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Volcanologist

Well-known member
What I've liked most is that they want a legit defensive line. I try to grasp at anything that shows this franchise cares about goals against.
 

zeke

Well-known member
how much do you trust the model?
what changes would you make?

I think his numbers are the best ones out there.

The problem is that they're mostly not public, so you can't see a breakdown of EV vs PP or make your own personal adjustments based on usage changes.

So you see Muzzin at 1.33 and Petry at 1.75 and that's a big edge for Petry, but that's likely all because petry plays on the PP and muzzin doesn't. But I can't be sure of the exact details unfortunately.

But overall his numbers are good - his model has pretty much the best track record out there, and imo in no small part because he's the only guy out there who never fought against QOC being important, he instinctively knew it was so he made sure to figure out how to incorporate it from the start.

Oh but wait - I just noticed there's more numbers available so maybe I can find some more there.

His points projections btw:

1. McDavid 121
2. Draisaitl 113
3. Kucherov 104
4. MacKinnon 103
5. Pastrnak 99
6. Panarin 97
7. Matthews 96
8. Marchand 96
9. Marner 96
10. Malkin 95
 
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