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The Stretch Run

Updated, 11-2-1 since the Western roadtrip, or a 134pt pace:

Tue, Mar 7: Detroit 3-2W
Thu, Mar 9: Philadelphia 4-2W
Sat, Mar 11: @ Carolina 3-2OTW
Tue, Mar 14: @ Florida 7-2L
Thu, Mar 16: @ Tampa Bay 5-0W
Sat, Mar 18: Chicago 2-1OTL
Mon, Mar 20: Boston 4-2W
Wed, Mar 22: @ Columbus 5-2W
Thu, Mar 23: New Jersey 4-2W
Sat, Mar 25: @ Buffalo 5-2L
Tue, Mar 28: Florida 3-2W
Thu, Mar 30: @ Nashville 3-1W
Sat, Apr 1: @ Detroit 5-4W
Mon, Apr 3: @ Buffalo 4-2W
Tue, Apr 4: Washington
Thu, Apr 6: Tampa Bay
Sat, Apr 8: Pittsburgh
Sun, Apr 9: Columbus
 
Amazing what a switch this is from years past.

The Kessel/Phaneuf Leafs would sometimes begin their annual collapses a bit earlier, but traditionally (excluding the mirage that was the lockout-shortened season), the death knell of their season would be an absolutely shambolic month of March. That's where they'd transform from a team that had merely fallen a bit out of the playoff race in February to a team that was legitimately challenging for a top-5 draft pick.

From to the original "18-wheeler off a cliff" in 2011/12 to 2014/15, the cumulative record of the Phaneuf/Kessel Leafs in the month of March in 82 game seasons was:

13-28-3 (54-point pace)

This current edition of the Leafs also fell outside of the playoff race for a bit during a pretty mediocre month of February. But unlike the old Leafs, instead of plunging right down to the bottom of the standings afterwards, they charged through March with this record:

8-3-2 (105-point pace)

...and they've also won their first two games in April.
 
Great stuff LeafGM. Sure wish there was a 'like post' button, would be ideal for situations like this where you'd like to recognize the efforts of a poster but would rather not clutter up the thread with a post.
 
BG said:
Great stuff LeafGM. Sure wish there was a 'like post' button, would be ideal for situations like this where you'd like to recognize the efforts of a poster but would rather not clutter up the thread with a post.
Click to expand...

There is one. It looks like a Star of david and is to the left of the report post button (look under the avatar).
 
A bit of a gut check for the Leafs after they dropped the game last night. They need to win at least one of the next three games against Tampa, Pittsburgh or Columbus to assure themselves of a playoff berth. Two OTLs would also do it.

Tampa or the Islanders would need to run the table on their next three games to get in, if the Leafs lose the next three. If either of those team fails to get 6 points in regulation or overtime, they're out.

The Leafs control their own destiny. Beat Tampa on Thursday and they're in. It's not a must win, but they really need it to have a chance at avoiding the Capitals in round one.
 
Updated, 11-3-1 since the Western roadtrip:

Tue, Mar 7: Detroit 3-2W
Thu, Mar 9: Philadelphia 4-2W
Sat, Mar 11: @ Carolina 3-2OTW
Tue, Mar 14: @ Florida 7-2L
Thu, Mar 16: @ Tampa Bay 5-0W
Sat, Mar 18: Chicago 2-1OTL
Mon, Mar 20: Boston 4-2W
Wed, Mar 22: @ Columbus 5-2W
Thu, Mar 23: New Jersey 4-2W
Sat, Mar 25: @ Buffalo 5-2L
Tue, Mar 28: Florida 3-2W
Thu, Mar 30: @ Nashville 3-1W
Sat, Apr 1: @ Detroit 5-4W
Mon, Apr 3: @ Buffalo 4-2W
Tue, Apr 4: Washington 4-1L
Thu, Apr 6: Tampa Bay
Sat, Apr 8: Pittsburgh
Sun, Apr 9: Columbus
 
If that 1 comes against the Bolts in a SO. If Bolts ROW the rest of the way, the Leafs will need 2 points, as Bolts would win the tiebreaker.
 
Tampa only has the tiebreaker if they beat the Leafs in regulation. If the Leafs take it to OT they basically lock it up.

The tie breakers are:

1. ROW - if Tampa wins out, and the Leafs lose out, they are tied with 38.
2. Head to Head points - if the Leafs lose a 3 point game, then both teams would be at 5 points (2-1-1).
3. Goal differential - the Leafs are +11, Tampa is 0.
 
Isles get Carolina, New Jersey/Ottawa back-to-back to finish.

Bolts get Toronto/Montreal back-to-back, and Buffalo to finish.
 
Toronto is 90+% in, as the only way the Leafs will miss the playoff is if we fail to pickup 2 points in the next 3 games (not 2 wins, but 2 points) and Tampa / NYI win all remaining games in ROW.

The chance of that is pretty slim (Stranger things have happened before, I know ... )

But it will be nice to clinch it vs the Bolts, who on paper is the weakest of the 3 remaining teams remaining on our calendar.

Just beat them in regulation, then we can rally for position with the last 2 games in the season.

We can still easily finish as high as 2nd in division (and home ice!) or mathematically as low as 9th and out of playoff with only 3 games left ... it's crazy.
 
Ideal result would be us winning against the Bolts tomorrow, and the Sens defeating the Bruins.

I don't so much care about home ice at this point---the first priority is clinching.

Second priority is getting out of the wild card.

Third priority is getting Ottawa instead of Boston in the first round.
 
I don't care much about Sens or Bruins in round 1. I think we can beat both teams in a 7 games series.

I just don't want to face the Caps in round 1.
 
LeafGm said:
Ideal result would be us winning against the Bolts tomorrow, and the Sens defeating the Bruins.

I don't so much care about home ice at this point---the first priority is clinching.

Second priority is getting out of the wild card.

Third priority is getting Ottawa instead of Boston in the first round.
Click to expand...

Yep
 
If we're lucky, Marchand will get at least a one-game suspension for his spear last night, and the Sens will take advantage and beat them in regulation on Thursday.

Then they'll be no more than one point ahead of Toronto, with the Leafs having games remaining against Pittsburgh & Columbus, & Boston having a single game left against Washington.
 
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