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New Canadian Politics Thread

Altair

Active member
https://www.cp24.com/news/forum-poll-pcs-pull-ahead-of-ndp-as-election-day-nears-1.3953091

The Forum Research poll, conducted on May 28 and May 29, randomly sampled 2602 Ontario voters and found that 39 per cent of decided and leaning respondents said they support the PC Party. Andrea Horwath’s NDP Party saw 35 per cent support and only 19 per cent said they would cast their ballot for the Wynne Liberals.

Based on the results of the poll, Forum Research projects the PCs to win a majority with 77 seats. The NDP is projected to receive 41 seats and the Liberals could wind up with six, according to the poll.
I know the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but at this point, it seems that the NDP might have hit their ceiling and Ford is going to win just due to vote efficiency.

NDP need to be 3-4 points ahead to have a chance, and most every poll has the liberals stubbornly around 20 percent, meaning that vote on the left isn't coalescing around the only party that can prevent Premier ford being a reality.

Annoying.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
https://www.cp24.com/news/forum-poll-pcs-pull-ahead-of-ndp-as-election-day-nears-1.3953091



I know the only poll that matters is the one on election day, but at this point, it seems that the NDP might have hit their ceiling and Ford is going to win just due to vote efficiency.

NDP need to be 3-4 points ahead to have a chance, and most every poll has the liberals stubbornly around 20 percent, meaning that vote on the left isn't coalescing around the only party that can prevent Premier ford being a reality.

Annoying.
I don't think the polls are accurately representing the "anyone but Ford" narrative yet, and won't until election day. A Liberal supporter who is considering "never Ford" probably won't say it yet, but they'll vote strategically on election day.
 

Altair

Active member
I don't think the polls are accurately representing the "anyone but Ford" narrative yet, and won't until election day. A Liberal supporter who is considering "never Ford" probably won't say it yet, but they'll vote strategically on election day.
ABC/H was starting to show up in the polls by this time in 2015.
 

UWHabs

Active member
I don't think the polls are accurately representing the "anyone but Ford" narrative yet, and won't until election day. A Liberal supporter who is considering "never Ford" probably won't say it yet, but they'll vote strategically on election day.
Well, there's a lot of very stubborn Liberals out there, though, so there's a good chance they won't crater that much further. But we've basically been stuck with the PCs in the 35-39 range, the NDP around the same, and the Libs caught in that 20% range. Still lots of variability out there, though. The Lib seat range on the CBC poll tracker still has predicted with 1 seat, with a range of 0-15.
 

Altair

Active member
Well, there's a lot of very stubborn Liberals out there, though, so there's a good chance they won't crater that much further. But we've basically been stuck with the PCs in the 35-39 range, the NDP around the same, and the Libs caught in that 20% range. Still lots of variability out there, though. The Lib seat range on the CBC poll tracker still has predicted with 1 seat, with a range of 0-15.
All that's saying is the vote split is going to kill the NDP on election day.

Their vote isn't efficient to begin with, liberals making it 3 way races all over the province, it's going to help a lot of PCs win tight contests.

Ford needs one thing to get elected on june 7th, a strong liberal party. His percentage of the electorate isn't going to get any higher than the high 30s, all he needs is for the 60 percent of left leaning voters to split the rest and he's golden.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
So here's a question.

If the PC's win a minority. Do the NDP and Liberals create a coalition? I know that's a dirty word in Canadian politics, but it shouldn't be.
 

UWHabs

Active member
So here's a question.

If the PC's win a minority. Do the NDP and Liberals create a coalition? I know that's a dirty word in Canadian politics, but it shouldn't be.
100% they should. Both sides hate Ford with a passion, and I bet you could line up all the policy proposals from each and people would do much worse than 50/50 identifying which is which.

But coalitions are basically not a thing in Canada, so I'd have a very hard time seeing the Liberals as wanting to formally be the short end of a coalition. And they probably don't want to give the NDP power. My guess is the Libs would hold their nose through a PC throne speech, elect a new leader, and hope to force a new election next year with a more popular candidate.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
They almost certainly would do that.
Canadian politicians are absolutely spineless.

It's a major reason why Trudeau gained so much popularity so quickly: I'm going to fix FPTP, & legalize weed. Two ideas that other politicians wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. I honestly believe it's why so many people gravitate towards tough talking Conservatives. They want to feel like the person leading them has some marbles. Left wing politicians are usually massive pussies.
 

Wayward DP

Active member
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.

2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
 

UWHabs

Active member
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.

2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
If the riding was NDP before, they'll probably win again. You can always poke around to find one of those prediction things to see how close the riding might be.

Otherwise, look up who's running and try to pick who looks like the best candidate. Worry locally.
 

MindzEye

Wayward Ditch Pig
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.
De nada, Zeke is a dummy.

2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
If you're not voting Ford, vote strategic imo. You not voting Ford doesn't do a hell of a lot if a PC candidate ends up winning your riding because Liberals and NDP vote split. Find out whichever candidate is polling stronger in your riding and give them a little push. I did that in the last federal election and ended up voting for Kent Hehr, who won a rare non blue seat in Alberta. He's a twit and all, but I helped get JT his majority that in turn seems to have set the stage for JT legalizing, thus providing me with the investment opportunity that led to my financial freedom.

So yeah, vote strategic. **** this noise about always supporting your "team" or voting for the party that aligns with your views every time. I keep being told by people that elections have consequences, and they're right. So vote accordingly. When there is a party that just needs to be stopped, help stop them. I'll take a shitty caretaker government destined for one term over a populist nutjob 100 times out of 100.
 

zeke

Well-known member
1. Thanks for bringing this thread back. sorry zeke but splitting them was a dumb idea.

2. I need help. I'm really struggling with my vote. I will, under no circumstances, vote for Doug Ford. But I could be convinced to vote for any of the other three parties. My riding has an NDP incumbent, but she is retiring. I would describe myself as pretty centrist - slightly left socially, slightly right fiscally. Of course you are all free to disagree with my self-assessment based on my posts here...
1. no you

2. neither party is fiscally responsible, but one is socially responsible. it's an easy choice.
 

Altair

Active member
I for some reason believe that zekes idea to merge the two was his subtle way to kill any talk of Canadian politics seeing as how it distracts away from his American political obsession.
 
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