OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
BeLeafer
Well-known member
The American left is resurgent but it didn't go away for decades by accident or because 'centrist' politics are particularly appealing. The FBI was created to destroy the left and working class politics.
www.chicagotribune.com
Column: 50 years later, it’s easier to see how the Black Panther raid changed racial politics
A lot has changed in the 50 years since the predawn Chicago police raid that left two Illinois Black Panther Party leaders dead and four other members wounded. For one, I’m a lot older now. I…
www.chicagotribune.com
zeke
Well-known member
zeke
Well-known member
zeke
Well-known member
Thought you hated MSNBC?
Anyways, look at all the polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Again, Silver uses piles of unreliable polls -- his tracker is filled with stuff from opt-in panels. The guy constantly embarrasses himself with his ignorance of methodology. You don't need to believe me about this.
zeke
Well-known member
do you find that it's just a weird coincidence that you used literally the one single poll in weeks that has shown a negative number for impeachment (and one from over a week ago, no less)?
BeLeafer
Well-known member
No. I don't pay hardly any attention to this. I just saw the poll on someone's twitter and it fit with my post on how pathetic congressional leadership is these days. It was also from a semi reliable polling outfit.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Here's the RCP page for it: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...eachment_inquiry_of_president_trump-6956.html
It uses crap too but links to the methodology statements for most of them and has decent polls included.
It uses crap too but links to the methodology statements for most of them and has decent polls included.
zeke
Well-known member
conveniently, 538 lists every poll, with a rating according to how well they've done in the past.
let's look at the polls they have listed over the last few months:
Marist (A+): +2, +1
Seltzer (A+): -2
ABC/WaPo (A+): +2
Monmouth (A+): -24, -24, -8, +7
Survey USA (A): +7, +9
Fox/Beacon (A-): -7, -8, +8, +4
Emerson (A-): +4, -2
WSJ/NBC (A/B): -6, +3
Pub Rel (A/B): -6, +4
SSRS (A/B): -13, +2, +7, +7
Quinnipac (B+): -20, +0, -4, -2, +2, -3
Gallup (B): +6, +3, -2
Morning Consult (B/C): -14, -15, -14, -12, -9, -16, -13, -18, -13, -13, +0, +7, +10, +8, +7, +4, +8, +4, +9
YouGov (B-): -1, -4, -1, +2, +8, +4, +4, +9, +8, +4, +9, +7, +6, +7, +6, +3, +5, +3, +8, +6
Ipsos (B-): -1, -1, +2, -4, -8, +4, +7, +6, +1, +6, +6, +4, +3, +4, +5, +7, +2
let's look at the polls they have listed over the last few months:
Marist (A+): +2, +1
Seltzer (A+): -2
ABC/WaPo (A+): +2
Monmouth (A+): -24, -24, -8, +7
Survey USA (A): +7, +9
Fox/Beacon (A-): -7, -8, +8, +4
Emerson (A-): +4, -2
WSJ/NBC (A/B): -6, +3
Pub Rel (A/B): -6, +4
SSRS (A/B): -13, +2, +7, +7
Quinnipac (B+): -20, +0, -4, -2, +2, -3
Gallup (B): +6, +3, -2
Morning Consult (B/C): -14, -15, -14, -12, -9, -16, -13, -18, -13, -13, +0, +7, +10, +8, +7, +4, +8, +4, +9
YouGov (B-): -1, -4, -1, +2, +8, +4, +4, +9, +8, +4, +9, +7, +6, +7, +6, +3, +5, +3, +8, +6
Ipsos (B-): -1, -1, +2, -4, -8, +4, +7, +6, +1, +6, +6, +4, +3, +4, +5, +7, +2
BeLeafer
Well-known member
That's another glaring area where Silver (and Grenier or whatever his name is here in Can) expose their ignorance. The ability to get close to an outcome strictly on voting intention is not a valid measure of the reliability of the pollster or their method. To lay people it make sense but it's bullshit.
Altair
Well-known member
wow.
zeke
Well-known member
you are dramatically oversimplifying what they do.