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OT: American Politics

Altair

Altair

Well-known member
BeLeafer said:
Even public television has been overrun by the oligarchy (though this is not new):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1201905962308820992
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One of the few cases where I'll agree with you.

US corporate media is so incredibly transparent when it comes to trying to tank Bernie. Thank god for social media.

Bernie just needs to hold on until the field narrows to 5 or so and some people are surprised he is still in the race.

Warren has been static recently which still leaves Bernie with a chance to be the progressive candidate.

I just hope Bernie and warren have a deal in place not to vote split and let joe fucking Biden come up the middle.
 
BeLeafer

BeLeafer

resurrected
Again, Silver uses piles of unreliable polls -- his tracker is filled with stuff from opt-in panels. The guy constantly embarrasses himself with his ignorance of methodology. You don't need to believe me about this.

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www.aapor.org
 
zeke

zeke

Well-known member
BeLeafer said:
Again, Silver uses piles of unreliable polls -- his tracker is filled with stuff from opt-in panels. The guy constantly embarrasses himself with his ignorance of methodology. You don't need to believe me about this.

Loading…

www.aapor.org
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do you find that it's just a weird coincidence that you used literally the one single poll in weeks that has shown a negative number for impeachment (and one from over a week ago, no less)?
 
BeLeafer

BeLeafer

resurrected
zeke said:
do you find that it's just a weird coincidence that you used literally the one single poll in weeks that has shown a negative number for impeachment (and one from over a week ago, no less)?
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No. I don't pay hardly any attention to this. I just saw the poll on someone's twitter and it fit with my post on how pathetic congressional leadership is these days. It was also from a semi reliable polling outfit.
 
BeLeafer

BeLeafer

resurrected
If you want to debate the level of support or opposition to impeachment based on polls, use some reliable ones. Even the crap Silver uses shows piles of opposition. As I said from the start, it's divisive.
 
zeke

zeke

Well-known member
conveniently, 538 lists every poll, with a rating according to how well they've done in the past.

let's look at the polls they have listed over the last few months:

Marist (A+): +2, +1
Seltzer (A+): -2
ABC/WaPo (A+): +2
Monmouth (A+): -24, -24, -8, +7

Survey USA (A): +7, +9

Fox/Beacon (A-): -7, -8, +8, +4
Emerson (A-): +4, -2

WSJ/NBC (A/B): -6, +3
Pub Rel (A/B): -6, +4
SSRS (A/B): -13, +2, +7, +7

Quinnipac (B+): -20, +0, -4, -2, +2, -3

Gallup (B): +6, +3, -2

Morning Consult (B/C): -14, -15, -14, -12, -9, -16, -13, -18, -13, -13, +0, +7, +10, +8, +7, +4, +8, +4, +9

YouGov (B-): -1, -4, -1, +2, +8, +4, +4, +9, +8, +4, +9, +7, +6, +7, +6, +3, +5, +3, +8, +6
Ipsos (B-): -1, -1, +2, -4, -8, +4, +7, +6, +1, +6, +6, +4, +3, +4, +5, +7, +2
 
BeLeafer

BeLeafer

resurrected
That's another glaring area where Silver (and Grenier or whatever his name is here in Can) expose their ignorance. The ability to get close to an outcome strictly on voting intention is not a valid measure of the reliability of the pollster or their method. To lay people it make sense but it's bullshit.
 
Altair

Altair

Well-known member
BeLeafer said:
That's another glaring area where Silver (and Grenier or whatever his name is here in Can) expose their ignorance. The ability to get close to an outcome strictly on voting intention is not a valid measure of the reliability of the pollster or their method. To lay people it make sense but it's bullshit.
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wow.
 
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