JackBurton
Well-known member
Man, Boston looks ugly down the middle. At best they are a WC team.
Around the League 2019-2024 Edition
- Thread starter LeafGm
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Volcanologist
Well-known member
I still think the Bruins are a playoff team. Maybe not a top seed anymore. but they're just a sounder team than the sens wings and sabres are. having said that, their tolerance for injuries is probably a lot lower now. if Pasta or Marchand go down for any length of time they're kinda screwed.
JackBurton
Well-known member
I agree. That D and G are too good. But reality is it looks like a WC spot for them. And that's fine for the playoffs. Things went way too smooth for them last year.
JackBurton
Well-known member
Sabres are 2nd in the Atlantic IMO.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I think they’ll be decent but not great. Those forwards and D are good enough to win 2-1 or 3-2, but much more likely to lose 4-1 or worse if the other team is any good offensively. Pasta’s production is going to be dramatically worse this year.
zeke
Well-known member
Sabres had the 3rd best offense in hockey last year.
They're gonna need to figure out how to play D to move up.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
4th in 5v5 SH%, 4th in PP SH%
There's an aspect of skill in SH%, but I don't know if I see elite shooting talent in that forward group to justify those type of shooting results. Basically their entire top 6 set career highs or recent career highs in goals and by a lot in some cases. It's also not as young a top 6 as some people think it is. Tage is the same age as Auston, Skinner is 31, Tuch is 27 (and almost doubled his career best in goals last season) , Olofsson is 28 and his 28 goals was a career high by 8. Cozens had a hell of a breakout year, but his SH% last season was double what his career SH% over the first 2 years of his career was.
There's a lot of room for goal scoring regression from a handful of their top performers from last season, especially with what you mention...they suck defensively, and often with young team the goal scoring dries up a bunch when they start learning how to play winning hockey.
It's easy to look at the 91 points an assume they're on the cusp but they were 6th in the atlantic, & 11th in the east in regulation wins. Their goaltending is shambolic looking, and the blueline is pretty suspect looking.
If you squint, I can see the argument for "This year's New Jersey" but there's some major differences imo. Jersey's forward group is anchored by a bunch of really, really good 2 way forwards (Hischier is going to win a bunch of Selke's, Bratt is fantastic, Haula & Tatar good veteran 2 way forwards that Buffalo simply has zero of) and their top 4 was real good going into the season. But also, if Vanacek didn't turn into a functioning starter (.911 in 48 starts), coupled with Schmid coming out of nowhere (and probably not sustainable going forward) there is no New Jersey breakout.
Point Pace:
Vanacek (.911 - 48 starts): 120 points
Schmid (.922 - 14 starts): 117 points
Blackwood (.893 - 20 starts): 90 points
Going into this upcoming season, Buffalo looks like they're running Comrie (28 yrs old, career .897 in 47 starts) and UPL (24 yrs old, .897 in 36 career starts) out there as their tandem. It's really hard to be a ~100 point team or better with that kind of goaltending.
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zeke
Well-known member
they're probably gonna bet on Levi in net, but he's a bit of a midget.
and yeah the age thing is always a bit overrated, given that their major guys are pretty much the same age as ours and we were easy playoffs teams years earlier. though they do have a very nice young crew in Dahlin 23, Power 21, Cozens 22, Quinn 22, Peterka 21, Samuelsson 23 that they can legit expect growth from.
but at the same time like you pointed out - there's also a big risk of offensive regression after all those huge years last year, especially if they actually try and play defense.
and yeah the age thing is always a bit overrated, given that their major guys are pretty much the same age as ours and we were easy playoffs teams years earlier. though they do have a very nice young crew in Dahlin 23, Power 21, Cozens 22, Quinn 22, Peterka 21, Samuelsson 23 that they can legit expect growth from.
but at the same time like you pointed out - there's also a big risk of offensive regression after all those huge years last year, especially if they actually try and play defense.
JackBurton
Well-known member
Eh, I hear this a lot, but it was shitty last year. I think Anderson was 78 years-old and their top goalie. They missed by a point
They are simply like New Jersey last year, who BTW, I picked to make the playoffs when almost no one else was. Just saying.
Boston, Tampa, Florida, all worse in Atlantic.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
and he would be 79, and their best goalie again this season. That's the point. Their goaltending is in shambles and their best goalie last season (by a lot) isn't there this season.
Yep, but overtime saved their asses. 5th in the NHL in OT pt%, tied for 19th in regulation time point %
One of those 2 is very luck driven.
They aren't simply like New Jersey for reasons I've already pointed out. Also, if you're going to crow about your Jersey pick, we need to bring up your weird Las Vegas hatred that has been wrong for years running now.
JackBurton
Well-known member
A year ago did you think highly of New Jersey like I did?
Dahlin and Power are so damn good.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
A year ago did you think highly of Vegas like I did?
What the fuck is this game even? Because you picked a breakout team last season, you're right this season? Nah
JackBurton
Well-known member
Yes it seems I'm damn good at it. More of a "Prediction" than game.
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hockeylover
Well-known member
Oh, you don't wanna do this.
Receipts will be brought.
Receipts will be brought.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I'm well aware that I'm hit and miss. I always show my work though.