New Canadian Politics Thread

[MindzEye]

The right hates environmental protections getting in the way of using our natural resources (oil, gas, minerals, etc.) to increase GDP. Of course there is always going to be a ying-yang on protecting the environment and getting away from fossil fuels in the long-term, compared to what we could or should be doing in the short-term. Their argument is that the Libs are too militant on the environment stuff (and Carney will be "no different"). He understands the need for much of it, just that we go too far.

The thing is, our customer nations are often stricter than we are regarding environmental requirements. Europe has historically made projects involving importing our oil very difficult to get approved. The US government has pulled the approval of pipelines carrying our products in the somewhat recent past.

Are there things that we can do to streamlines certain processes? Probably. But people need to realize that "Canada" doesn't sell oil. Provinces provide land leases to corporations who then spend money developing those leases, producing oil from them, and they then sell that oil to market. We should absolutely be setting reasonably high regulations as to how we expect corporations to respect the environments they're operating in. When you don't, you get shit like this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...ing-next-month-says-alberta-premier-1.7487875

Where those corps make their money and move on with their profits, leaving taxpayers to foot the bill on cleaning up their mess.

 

[LeafGm]

How can they lose? Do they know how many people live in the Extended GTA and Greater Montreal?

That’s some wicked hard cope.

Cope, and perhaps the effect of living in the far-right bubble that is rural & suburban Alberta.

More worryingly, it could also be the early warning signs of a made-in-Canada “stolen election” conspiracy. And I’m really curious what approach PP would take with that if he loses—especially if he loses big and the Liberals win a strong majority.

 

[MindzEye]

Immigration is one of their big issues, the "4 million refugees" number they mention in the post is obviously bullshit as you noted but they probably meant the total number of immigrants. Ie. the Liberals let in far too many people over the last decade which is a major contributing factor to both housing and healthcare breaking down. Too many people overwhelming the system. He's aware that this is an oversimplification, but still a big part of the problem.

I don't care what it means to say, refugees are refugees and immigrants are immigrants. These are words with definitions. I don't think we do ourselves any good at all when we tolerate racist dog whistle bullshit which is what referring to immigrants (who are a massive value add to society on balance) as refugees is.

Did the Liberals let in too many people?



That post covid spike was a fuck up, sure (one they've taken steps to correct already). But a bunch of people in the country on student visas and work permits isn't what caused the housing crisis. We did that to ourselves with decades of....not building enough housing.

Apologies for the chart missing x axis data, but each pip is a year from 1943 to 2023. Housing starts up significantly during Trudeau (but still not enough), down during Harper, up during Chretien.

The thing with the housing crisis though, like our energy issues is that "the market" is supposed to be the solution to those problem and just....hasn't been. Are people willing to accept what comes next when we accept that the hallowed market isn't the solution to nationwide problems?

 

[lecoqsportif]

More worryingly, it could also be the early warning signs of a made-in-Canada “stolen election” conspiracy. And I’m really curious what approach PP would take with that if he loses—especially if he loses big and the Liberals win a strong majority.

Agree. That’s the clear implication of the narrative. And they’ve obviously shown a willingness to use menace/threats.

 

[MindzEye]

Lastly on their point about "hard drugs", he thought they might be talking about oxymorphone which I guess the Liberals tried to bring in as an alternative to opioids at some point, but it didn't work out.

lol wut? It was never legalized for anything other than prescription use.

Quite clearly the idiot who originally wrote that list is calling weed a hard drug, which says a lot about what type of person wrote it.

 

[MindzEye]

How can they lose? Do they know how many people live in the Extended GTA and Greater Montreal?

That’s some wicked hard cope.

My experience with Albertans suggests that they really prefer to not accept that we exist outside of when it's time to complain about them not getting whatever it is they think Alberta deserves.

 

[MindzEye]

As mentioned, this was already approved in 2018 and is almost done construction.

LNG Canada | Unlocking Canada’s LNG Opportunity

LNG Canada provides low-carbon, reliable Canadian LNG to support the global energy transition. Learn more about the LNG Canada project.

www.lngcanada.ca

Actually....one more thing to add to this in the context of Europe, Ukraine war, etc.

The energy market is kind of zero sum. If Canada is sending a few billion cubic meters a day to Asia, then whoever was previously supplying that customer now has overhang that they can sell to other customers (Europe).

Canada is closer to Japan, SK, and China than middle eastern suppliers are. Getting Kitimat online and supplying Asia will lead to Qatar (3rd largest exporter in the world) to be able to supply more to Europe.

 

[worm]

My experience with Albertans suggests that they really prefer to not accept that we exist outside of when it's time to complain about them not getting whatever it is they think Alberta deserves.

Yes.

 

[MindzEye]

Yes.

10 yrs out there bro, 10 yrs.

 

[LeafGm]

Agree. That’s the clear implication of the narrative. And they’ve obviously shown a willingness to use menace/threats.

Yeah, it’s worrisome.

I wouldn’t put it past Poilievre and/or Smith to respond to a Liberal majority with a full embrace of their own version of the big lie. And to invite & encourage Trump and his allies to use that as a pretext for fucking with Canada.

Poilievre in particular wouldn’t have much to lose in that scenario. If he accepts the election results, there’s no way he doesn’t get knifed by his caucus and turfed as party leader after such a stunning turnaround and defeat. At which point his only options would be going back to being a back-bench opposition MP, or retire from Federal politics.

 

[lecoqsportif]

Unless… they get trounced. Which is what 338 shows.

I think it’s gonna be L minority…

 

[axlsalinger]

Hm. I’d be curious to dig in more on with someone in person on what they mean by didn’t work.

I'll get some clarification on that point.

 

[MindzEye]

I think it’s gonna be L minority…

Serious question...why?

Seat projection on 338 is 196 seats with a 7 point aggregate polling lead. 11 point aggregate lead in Ontario, 21 points in Quebec.

It would be stunning if the polling in those 2 provinces were wrong enough that the Liberals end up south of 172.

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/addammy1/status/1910477539589443844

 

[axlsalinger]

Actually....one more thing to add to this in the context of Europe, Ukraine war, etc.

The energy market is kind of zero sum. If Canada is sending a few billion cubic meters a day to Asia, then whoever was previously supplying that customer now has overhang that they can sell to other customers (Europe).

Canada is closer to Japan, SK, and China than middle eastern suppliers are. Getting Kitimat online and supplying Asia will lead to Qatar (3rd largest exporter in the world) to be able to supply more to Europe.

Thanks for taking the time, man. Good stuff. So the idea behind approving Kitimat in 2018 was specifically to sell LNG to the Asian market, correct? And it's almost ready to go ... so it seems like a weird talking point for PP and the right. Will any of it reach India? I guess they're probably crying that it isn't enough.

Actually, just looking into this now ... seems fair to say it mostly involves British Columbia. So Alberta probably wants their own project, I assume?

 

[lecoqsportif]

Serious question...why?

Seat projection on 338 is 196 seats with a 7 point aggregate polling lead. 11 point aggregate lead in Ontario, 21 points in Quebec.

It would be stunning if the polling in those 2 provinces were wrong enough that the Liberals end up south of 172.

Non-serious answer: I’m a glass half-empty type.

More serious:

1) I think the L swing is a little shallow, not terribly enthused and volatile. Some people might want to swing back - say even 5 points to the dippers. That could drop the Ls to 2nd in some ridings.
2) I think the BQ might surge and take back a bunch of seats after the debate.
3) Shy/cagey poll respondents.

That said, 55+ voters seem to be strongly L, so that might be enough to get carry the day.

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/addammy1/status/1910477539589443844

some Ron DeathSantis vibes there

 

[LeafGm]

View: https://x.com/addammy1/status/1910477539589443844

 

[LeafGm]

Serious question...why?

Seat projection on 338 is 196 seats with a 7 point aggregate polling lead. 11 point aggregate lead in Ontario, 21 points in Quebec.

It would be stunning if the polling in those 2 provinces were wrong enough that the Liberals end up south of 172.

I think this is becoming one of the biggest reasons for being hopeful for a Liberal majority:





Really seems like the Bloc might be experiencing a drop-off in support similar to the one in the 2011 & 2015 elections, when they got swamped by the orange wave in 2011 & the push to oust Harper in 2015, and dropped to 4 & 10 seats respectively.

Some of that is probably a genuine surge of Canadian patriotism. And there's probably a lot of Quebec sovereigntists temporarily moving their vote because they rightly recognize that Quebec nationhood and any future hope of a sovereign Quebec would be under mortal threat in a North America where Canada's Prime Minister is sympatico with a lawless, expansionist and authoritarian American President.

 

[MindzEye]

Thanks for taking the time, man. Good stuff.

No worries mang

So the idea behind approving Kitimat in 2018 was specifically to sell LNG to the Asian market, correct?

Correct. It's generally been considered the most important energy market for us to expand to, Europe has always been a complete afterthought because until 2022-23, the Russians were their biggest single supplier, and they're also proximate to the Middle East, which I've heard dabbles in the stuff as well. Also, much shorter and cheaper pipes to get to the ocean if you go west rather than east.

so it seems like a weird talking point for PP and the right.

Have to remember, their base completely memory holes it whenever a Liberal government does anything for the Alberta energy industry. A Liberal government helping get Alberta energy to international market is the most thankless thing a Liberal politician will ever do.

So it's a great talking point for PP and the right, because nobody out there will ever correct them and his base eats up eastern hatred. Canadians are unified by not being American and Albertans are unified by not being Eastern Canadian.

Will any of it reach India? I guess they're probably crying that it isn't enough.

Could. It goes on the international market and whoever buys, buys. Now, with that said, part of the cost of the product is shipping, and India is quite far. The most likely destination is China, Japan, South Korea.

Actually, just looking into this now ... seems fair to say it mostly involves British Columbia. So Alberta probably wants their own project, I assume?

Kitimat isn't production, it's a LNG export terminal where they can pipe natural gas into, and liquify it there for loading onto LNG ships for transport. The gas itself will come in over existing pipelines from Alberta.