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Advanced Stats Thread

hockeylover said:
It's weird though that for us, we not only win despite being outpossessed, we actually lose more when out-possessing our opponents.

Can't quite figure that one out.
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We're an elite goal scoring team, with great goaltending.....that had league worst possession last year.......so that's almost precisely what the numbers would predict would happen. (that we'd win games while losing possession).

IMO the fact we win the corsi/fenwick the odd time and lose the game, is more likely than not just an anomalous outcome that seems particularly weird because we win that battle so little.....so when we win it, and lose the game it really sticks out. But that's purely speculation on my part, based on the fact that the lower the sample size the more likely you can see something "odd" in the numbers.
 
Montana said:
We're an elite goal scoring team, with great goaltending.....that had league worst possession last year.......so that's almost precisely what the numbers would predict would happen. (that we'd win games while losing possession).

IMO the fact we win the corsi/fenwick the odd time and lose the game, is more likely than not just an anomalous outcome that seems particularly weird because we win that battle so little.....so when we win it, and lose the game it really sticks out. But that's purely speculation on my part, based on the fact that the lower the sample size the more likely you can see something "odd" in the numbers.
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Yes. I get this part completely.

I don't get why we lose more often than not when we outpossess our opponent. When I did it last night it was something like 110 point pace when we lose it and 68 point pace when we win it.
 
hockeylover said:
I don't get why we lose more often than not when we outpossess our opponent. When I did it last night it was something like 110 point pace when we lose it and 68 point pace when we win it.
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My guess (and I concede that's all it is) is that the sample size of games in which we've won possession and lost the game, is so small that it's likely not worthy of deriving much from, or indicative of anything substantial......but I could be completely wrong on that.
 
Montana said:
My guess (and I concede that's all it is) is that the sample size of games in which we've won possession and lost the game, is so small that it's likely not worthy of deriving much from, or indicative of anything substantial......but I could be completely wrong on that.
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I guess that could be it. I think it's 5-7. It'll be interesting to keep track of this over two seasons. If it doesn't get better though, I call shenanigans.
 
hockeylover said:
Yes. I get this part completely.

I don't get why we lose more often than not when we outpossess our opponent. When I did it last night it was something like 110 point pace when we lose it and 68 point pace when we win it.
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It's a pretty small sample size. I think it's only about 10 games.
 
one thing to remember about 'possession' is that we aren't measuring it by actually... yknow... timing possession.
 
mbow30 said:
one thing to remember about 'possession' is that we aren't measuring it by actually... yknow... timing possession.
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Yeah, a few of us discussed that about a month ago. Corsi/Fenwick is a proxy for possession, not actual possession.
 
mbow30 said:
one thing to remember about 'possession' is that we aren't measuring it by actually... yknow... timing possession.
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I'm not sure that's something that requires remembering, as I highly doubt that's a mistake anyone around here has made in the first place.......
 
There's been a lot of work done and shots attempts toward goal is a very good proxy for possession. That doesn't mean it's the only stat that matters.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
There's been a lot of work done and shots attempts toward goal is a very good proxy for possession. That doesn't mean it's the only stat that matters.
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a lot of work by whom?

again, it doesn't take an analytical mind to figure out that teams that take a lot more shots than they allow tend to have possession of the puck more often than their opponents.

where the stat runs into problems is from the opposite end of the spectrum. a team that doesn't take a lot of shots isn't going to post a very strong corsi. but that doesn't mean that they aren't in possession of the puck less than their opponents.

and i don't understand why you need a 'proxy' for a stat that can pretty easily be empirically tracked.
 
The team that just hangs on to the puck, but doesn't shoot is a statistical anomaly. If you're going enough to possess a lot of the puck, you're good enough to generate chances.
 
mbow30 said:
and yet it is very apparent that people are, in fact, doing that.
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I've yet to see a single person confuse Corsi/Fenwick with being a literal representation of time of possession.

Have never seen it happen once, let alone on this board.
 
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15% of nhl teams currently employ somebody to study advanced stats.

that's 4-5 teams.

these advances aren't coming from the teams.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
There's been a lot of work done and shots attempts toward goal is a very good proxy for possession. That doesn't mean it's the only stat that matters.
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Define "very good" though. How much correlation are we talking here? Because Corsi/Fenwick only has a 55% correlation with winning, yet the same crowd considers that a very good proxy for team quality.
 
Montana said:
I've yet to see a single person confuse Corsi/Fenwick with being a literal epresentation of time of possession.

Have never seen it happen once, let alone on this board.
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you're acting pretty irrationally here.

look at this thread.

all people are talking about is the leafs' possession.

we don't know what the leafs' possession is. we just assume corsi/fenwick tells us the leafs' possession. but we don't know that for a fact.

we do know, though, that the leafs coaches care about possession enough to time possession, and have intimdated that the team's possession stats last year didn't exaclty correlate with the team's corsi.
 
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