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Advanced Stats Thread

Avs aren't gonna be trading away anyone like that after this start.

Look at struggling teams, not hot teams.
 
Steve Ott.

Not a great offensive player, but with Bozak back in a few weeks we don't necessarily need a top 6 (though it would be nice). Strong face off guy, complete scumbag to play against, is used to being a checker/agitator against opposition top lines...and of course, Buffalo sucks
 
I like Ott, but the Sabres will want a 1st rounder for him. And even though I don't value mid to late 1st's as highly as a lot people, I don't think I'd give it up for a couple months of Ott.
 
Wild prosper from playing puck more

After the Chicago Blackhawks eliminated Minnesota in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs last spring, the Wild came to a hard realization about their style.

"We weren't going to take the next step, become a serious contender, unless we changed the way we played offensively," Wild head coach Mike Yeo said Sunday. "I have bit my lip a couple of times on the bench ... but we're going to live with the risk to get more reward."

Minnesota was the ultimate dump-it-in team in 2012-13, constantly trying to put it behind the defence and chase it down. It didn't really work. Its minus-5 goal differential was the worst of any playoff team and it didn't scare the Blackhawks at all in losing the five-game series.

Through 18 games this season, though, the Wild are plus-8. Goaltender Josh Harding's unreal start is a major reason. But so is the organization's decision to try and play more with the puck.

Wild general manager Chuck Fletcher is a believer in advanced statistics. Behind the scenes, there is a lot of research being done on how much of an advantage it is to gain the opposing blue-line as opposed to dumping it in. It's a subject I'm really interested in, especially after a few people pointed to Chicago's Patrick Kane as the best in the NHL at this skill.

"We do some advanced analysis," Yeo said. "But there wasn't one or two stats that told us to do this.

"It was recognizing we weren't going to get better without doing it ... We use what the defence gives us. If there is opportunity to carry the puck, [to] allow our players to use their creativity ... wait and find the open spaces, they can do it."

It helps that the Wild are now a much faster team. Up front, there's been a veteran makeover in Zach Parise and Jason Pominville and an infusion of youth with Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter. These five have joined captain Mikko Koivu to form two strong lines.

But it's not just those players who are allowed to try. Generally, third and fourth liners are tortured if they make a mistake trying to be fancy. Yeo admits the reigns are a little tighter for those players. But he points out that Torrey Mitchell's playmaking on Zenon Konopka's goal in last week's 5-1 win over the Calgary Flames is an example of the freedom allowed them, too.

Then, there's Minnesota's defence. Take away Ryan Suter and the group combined for 54 points in 48 games one year ago. If this year's unit keeps up its current pace, it will have 69 points at the 48-game mark.

"Because we were giving up the zone and didn't have the puck, our D couldn't go up the ice," Yeo said, adding the collar is off the rearguards too.

"If the puck comes back to them [at the point in the offensive zone], we don't want them to just shoot. We want them getting involved."

The Western Conference is murder this season. But as the season reaches the quarter pole, the Wild don't look like one of the victims. Yet Yeo remembers the 2011-12 season, when Minnesota led the conference on Dec. 1, only to finish 12th. He knew that team wasn't good enough. This one?

"We'll have ups and downs," he said. "But it feels different."
Click to expand...

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...ghts-wild-prosper-from-playing-puck-more.html
 
So apparently there is some sort of Advanced Stats Roundtable going on, with guys like Nonis, Jets' GM Chevaldayoff, player agent Morris, and some others involved.

I have a feeling that twitter is about to explode based on what Nonis just said:

James Mirtle @mirtle
Leafs GM Dave Nonis will be speaking on an analytics panel here at @PrimeTimeSE in near future. Stay tuned.

James Mirtle @mirtle
The analytics panel here at @PrimeTimeSE is Kevin Abrams, Kevin Cheveldayoff, Pat Morris, Dave Nonis and Alex Rucker. #ptse2013

James Mirtle @mirtle
Moderator Dana Sinclair says in her experience many sports teams aren't using analytics enough. Choose players for leadership or bloodlines.

James Mirtle @mirtle
Cheveldayoff says analytics are very polarizing in the NHL still. "I think it's still in its infancy... We are very interested in it."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Cheveldayoff is playing coy when asked what stats he likes to rely on. These folks often don't like talking in specifics.

James Mirtle @mirtle
Agent Pat Morris says "today now we're into Corsi, we're into Fenwick, we're into quality of competition."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Morris is talking about zone starts affecting offensive production of players like Phaneuf.

James Mirtle @mirtle
Dave Nonis: "Last six, seven years, we've had significant dollar amount, budget, for analytics, but we didn't use it."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis says they've met with a lot of analytics people but haven't found something they believe will be useful.

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis says he likes looking at "hard stats" like ice time, goals, assists, points. Biggest thing they use is "going to watch a player play."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Raptors analytics guy Alex Rucker says their coaches are using analytics to make evaluations and decisions. Says data is better in NBA now.

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis: "I still believe there's something out there that can help us."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis says analytics are big topic b/c fans and media. Adds they invent their own stats. "Is it relevant? That's where it's getting murky."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Dave Nonis on these new stats the fans/media keep bringing up: "As of right now, very few of them are worth anything to us."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis: "One of the things we look for is does a player have character?... You're not going to find one HOFer that didn't have character."
 
There's nothing wrong with what Nonis said though. He doesn't sound at all closed minded to analytics but just doesn't think what's currently out there is as valuable as others do. That's pretty damn similar to what a lot of you guys have said in terms of discussing the creation of a new stat that includes more variables.

But yeah, the bloggers will freak about that unused budget part.
 
James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis being asked about shooting percentage regression for his team.

Chris Johnston @reporterchris
Dave Nonis says "individuals are different" when it comes to shooting percentage. "Right now our Corsi stat sucks but we're winning games."

James Mirtle @mirtle
Nonis: "We've had teams in the past where we were outshooting teams on a nightly basis. Our so-called Corsi stat was probably pretty good."
 
Judging players based soley on points, over a decent sample, isn't a bad way to evalute players. Especially if you factor in role, icetime, quality of teammates etc.
 
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Chris Johnston @reporterchris
Dave Nonis says he's heard about 15 different pitches from stats groups. The #leafs have seriously considered two.
 
Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 1m
Chuck Fletcher on discrepancies in NHL stats: "In Det. you're going to get 10 more shots on goal in a given night than you will in Minn."

Can't find this anywhere but I know they keep track of Home Hits vs Road Hits, Home Giveaways vs Road Giveaways etc. but is there somewhere where you can see Road Shots vs Home Shots? I wonder if there's that big of a discrepancy like we see at the ACC for the RTSS stats.
 
Still in that vein, here's a breakdown of the Leafs shots taken and given, think source is today's Star:


LEAFS BY THE NUMBERS


League shooters inside 20 feet:
SHOTS: 3,901
GOALS: 682
PERCENTAGE: 17 per cent


Leaf shooters from inside 20 feet:
SHOTS: 124
GOALS: 30
PERCENTAGE: 24 per cent


Opposing shooters inside 20 feet:
SHOTS: 141
GOALS: 18
PERCENTAGE: 13 per cent


League-wide, 30 per cent of shots come from inside 20 feet. The Leafs are holding the league to 25 per cent (141 of 553).


League shooters from beyond 20 feet:
SHOTS: 9,164
GOALS: 528
PERCENTAGE: Six per cent


Leaf shooters from beyond 20 feet:
SHOTS: 270
GOALS: 19
PERCENTAGE: Seven per cent


Opposing shooters from beyond 20 feet:
SHOTS: 412
GOALS: 18
PERCENTAGE: Four per cent
 
Most successful anti-fenwick teams so far this year:
(Fenwick Ranking)

18. Colorado: 121 pt pace
21. Phoenix: 121 pt pace
27. Washington: 98 pt pace
29. Toronto: 103 pt pace
 
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