But what is there to test in that circumstance? That's just a matter of finding the information and recording it.
Are all SV% the same? (Importance of consistency for goalies)
- Thread starter number17
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But what is there to test in that circumstance? That's just a matter of finding the information and recording it.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
I was checking out Andersen's splits on espn and was curious about the split they provide for leading after 2 periods. At first glance, it looked fine, as Andersen has posted a .930 sv% when leading after two periods.
However, when I started looking at other goalies, particularly those in the top 25 sv%, that sv% is notably worse than pretty much any other goalie. Andersen is the only goalie in the top 20 of sv% with sub-.940 sv% when leading after two. He's also got the lowest sv% in that situation among any of the top 25.
It seems that Freddy is one of the key reasons the Leafs have had trouble holding leads.
I haven't compiled the stats for presentation, as it would have to be done manually. Not sure if they're available anywhere else in a better format (on espn you have to check each goalie's stat page manually).
However, when I started looking at other goalies, particularly those in the top 25 sv%, that sv% is notably worse than pretty much any other goalie. Andersen is the only goalie in the top 20 of sv% with sub-.940 sv% when leading after two. He's also got the lowest sv% in that situation among any of the top 25.
It seems that Freddy is one of the key reasons the Leafs have had trouble holding leads.
I haven't compiled the stats for presentation, as it would have to be done manually. Not sure if they're available anywhere else in a better format (on espn you have to check each goalie's stat page manually).
number17
Mod Squad
Since you guys have revived this thread, I've updated the stats based on Andersen's performance in 1617 thus far. I have also compared him to 2 other goalies in the conference this season - Rask and Price.
To summarize ...
- As Leafs' #1 goalie this season, under heavy workload, Andersen's consistency has regressed from his last season, and is looking more like his 14/15 season (in which he started 52 games, he has already started 47 games this season with 1/4 season to go)
- Andersen still maintains a ~ 57%-43% split between "Good games" and "bad games", which is respectable by comparison (will get to that later). This is however a drop from his 65/35% drop last season, and 60/40% in 14-15 season.
- Compared to Price, Price is posting a very similar season as Andersen's in terms of SV%, % of great starts, good starts and bad starts. Needless to say, this hasn't been a good season for Price either, but it shows even the best goalies have bad seasons.
- If I remove the first 7 starts in October for Andersen (I know, I know ...) for 'Netflix / New team / New system" mulligan, Andersen's good / bad start % improves to 60/40%, identical to 14/15 season
- Rask OTOH, is posting a vastly different good/bad starts splits than Price and Andersen. Despite posting a somewhat similar SV% (914 compared to Andersen's 915) Rask has posted 47% good starts vs 53% bad starts. His save % is saved by the 7 shutouts he has posted.
All in all, I think Andersen's consistency is still very much in line with his historic stats and also other goalies in the division through the first ~ 60 games of the season. Eager to see how Andersen finishes up the season. IT will be very beneficial for Andersen to get hot about now, for both his stats' and the Leafs' season sake.
To summarize ...
- As Leafs' #1 goalie this season, under heavy workload, Andersen's consistency has regressed from his last season, and is looking more like his 14/15 season (in which he started 52 games, he has already started 47 games this season with 1/4 season to go)
- Andersen still maintains a ~ 57%-43% split between "Good games" and "bad games", which is respectable by comparison (will get to that later). This is however a drop from his 65/35% drop last season, and 60/40% in 14-15 season.
- Compared to Price, Price is posting a very similar season as Andersen's in terms of SV%, % of great starts, good starts and bad starts. Needless to say, this hasn't been a good season for Price either, but it shows even the best goalies have bad seasons.
- If I remove the first 7 starts in October for Andersen (I know, I know ...) for 'Netflix / New team / New system" mulligan, Andersen's good / bad start % improves to 60/40%, identical to 14/15 season
- Rask OTOH, is posting a vastly different good/bad starts splits than Price and Andersen. Despite posting a somewhat similar SV% (914 compared to Andersen's 915) Rask has posted 47% good starts vs 53% bad starts. His save % is saved by the 7 shutouts he has posted.
All in all, I think Andersen's consistency is still very much in line with his historic stats and also other goalies in the division through the first ~ 60 games of the season. Eager to see how Andersen finishes up the season. IT will be very beneficial for Andersen to get hot about now, for both his stats' and the Leafs' season sake.
number17
Mod Squad
I've actually taken an extra step and compared Andersen to all the #1 goalies in our division
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p4dbxt4d5zzn2og/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.01.37%20PM.png?dl=0
To summarize:
- Anderson has given his team the highest # of quality starts this season, with 59% of his starts are "good starts", 36% are "great starts". Of course, Anderson also has the smallest sample space because of his circumstances.
- Andersen and Price are tied for 2nd with 57% of quality starts. If I remove Andersen's 7 games in October (just for the fun of it ... assuming his poor starts were due to injuries / new team / new system / not enough Netflix) then his good starts jumps up to 60%, #1 in our division.
- Rask, Mzarek and Bishop are the only goalies in our division who has given their team under 50% 'good starts'. Mzarek is the worst, with only 44% 'good starts', and 42% of his starts are 'terrible starts' (.900 or under)
- Rask is the most bipolar goalies, leading the division in shutouts (7), and 'great starts' (40%) AND also 'terrible starts' (43%)
All in all, I think Andersen has met expectation and has not been any more inconsistent than other goalies of comparison here. He's given his chance a team to win on more nights than any one else in the division except for Anderson.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p4dbxt4d5zzn2og/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.01.37%20PM.png?dl=0
To summarize:
- Anderson has given his team the highest # of quality starts this season, with 59% of his starts are "good starts", 36% are "great starts". Of course, Anderson also has the smallest sample space because of his circumstances.
- Andersen and Price are tied for 2nd with 57% of quality starts. If I remove Andersen's 7 games in October (just for the fun of it ... assuming his poor starts were due to injuries / new team / new system / not enough Netflix) then his good starts jumps up to 60%, #1 in our division.
- Rask, Mzarek and Bishop are the only goalies in our division who has given their team under 50% 'good starts'. Mzarek is the worst, with only 44% 'good starts', and 42% of his starts are 'terrible starts' (.900 or under)
- Rask is the most bipolar goalies, leading the division in shutouts (7), and 'great starts' (40%) AND also 'terrible starts' (43%)
All in all, I think Andersen has met expectation and has not been any more inconsistent than other goalies of comparison here. He's given his chance a team to win on more nights than any one else in the division except for Anderson.
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leafman101
Well-known member
There just isn't enough information. The interesting thing is .930 is bad for 3rd period leading save percentage. Thats a really good save percentage. The fact that most goalies are .940+ in the 3rd period with leads suggests they face easier shots in the third period when their team is leading. That has to be the main reason that goalies are statistically significantly better in that situation compared to the rest of the time.
Tough to say that about Leafs goalies.
Tough to say that about Leafs goalies.
leafman101
Well-known member
Yeah, its been established his 3rd period with the lead save percentage is bad relative to other goalies. But why?
Andersen is first in the NHL in HD Saves with the lead, and mid danger. He leads the league in saves with the lead by 42.
Just not enough information posted here to agree/disagree with the statement.
Andersen is first in the NHL in HD Saves with the lead, and mid danger. He leads the league in saves with the lead by 42.
Just not enough information posted here to agree/disagree with the statement.
BeLeafer
Well-known member
Hard to say and I haven't had time to dig into the numbers. I'm not sure we'll find it there. When Joseph first came in I recall being very concerned that he was letting in too many goals. Over time, I noticed he was always good a shutting the door late in games. It might just be the reverse with Freddy. Can't dig down for a little extra when the game is on the line.
number17
Mod Squad
While 3rd period SV% is one thing, I think the Leafs as a team also has lots to improve on regarding playing with a lead in the 3rd. As a team I feel we give up way too many HD scoring chances in the 3rd with a lead. Part of this is goaltending, but part of this is the team too.