• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

That's not exactly a reassuring basis for your belief. We've had good regular season goalies before.

If the small sample in the playoffs was brilliance, okay. But the small sample is atrocious. You're banking on a complete reversal of postseason performance because Quick was good on his third try? Bad bet, and really just more support for the assholes theory.

Definitely don't get a bad goalie who isn't even good in the regular season. But if you're going to burn trade capital and then devote a decent chunk of cap to a goalie, at least it should be someone who's had some postseason success already.
 
MindzEye said:
A 1st and a 3rd for 1 yr of pending UFA is Ullmark and Saros.
Click to expand...
I don't care much about assets, cap space is more precious. But regardless, he did not have a good playoff. They may have added a decent goalie at a nice aav but they would have won without him too. He was a nice goalie and had a great season but as you point out, playoff samples even over the course of a career are gonna be too small to expect normalization. That doesn't mean you don't try to get a good goalie, it just means the value of a good one suffers a bit because of that variance.

The other bit is that if ~25 teams in the league spend $4m or more on at least one of their goalies (which is the case), guess what, odds are one of those teams that "invest in goaltending" will win a cup. So I'm not sure that's a great argument either. For the purposes of roster optimization I have yet to see a great argument that supports spending big money on a goalie longterm (unless it's former Vas or Shesty).

I agree that the only two guys available that I wouldn't cry about them getting are Saros and Ullmark. They don't cost much for next year and their deltas, while they show more variance than a forward at their future aav would show, are not horrifying. I like consistency even more than a guy that can put together elite stretches because I don't think you need elite play as much as you need dependable goaltending. Be an elite team that outplays the opposition on most nights and elite goaltending is entirely optional, as we've seen throughout the last few playoffs. But I do worry greatly about paying them longterm.
 
And yeah if you hate Fred, Ullmark's playoff numbers should scare you a bit. I don't really flinch at a sample that small but it's a cautionary tale of what to expect from the top goalies in the league once the playoffs roll around. You don't really know what you're gonna get, even if the odds of solid play are better than they are for other goalies. It's a bit of a crapshoot and the numbers likely won't normalize until you get to 100+ playoff games.
 
Nah, Quick was one easy example because I remember it from a bunch of years ago.

If you want to make a meal out of a handful of bad games, have at it. There's not a whole lot of evidence for good "regular season" goalies melting in the playoffs over a reasonable sample though.
 
might as well replace the entire roster with players "who've had post season success already"

right now you have $70M tied up in the opposite type of players

Tre's summer just got way harder!!!
 
Preston said:
And yeah if you hate Fred, Ullmark's playoff numbers should scare you a bit. I don't really flinch at a sample that small but it's a cautionary tale of what to expect from the top goalies in the league once the playoffs roll around. You don't really know what you're gonna get, even if the odds of solid play are better than they are for other goalies. It's a bit of a crapshoot and the numbers likely won't normalize until you get to 100+ playoff games.
Click to expand...

Eh, I think 100+ is way more than necessary for the performances to level out. Just taking a quick rip down the SV% list this year(min 20 playoff games):

Reg/Playoffs

Fred: .916/.914
Helle: .917/.910
Varly: .916/.918
Swayman: .919/.922
Bob: .915/.907
Binnington: .908/.910
Talbot: .913/.915
Shesty: .921/.928
Quick: .911/.921
Sorokin: .919/.919
Saros: .917/.911
Markstrom: .909/.911
Oettinger: .913/.915
Skinner: .909/.889 (lol)
Kuemper: .914/.908
Gibson: .910/.912
MAF: .912/.911
Georgiev: .908/.904
Grubauer: .911/.910
Vasy: .917/.920
Jones: .905/.917

So like, Stuart Skinner is basically it. Martin Jones on the other end, but his teams didn't make the playoffs in the many years he was dogshit enough to drag his early career (~.915) save percentage down.

Everyone else is pretty much spot on with the regular season performance after ~20 games.
 
MindzEye said:
Eh, I think 100+ is way more than necessary for the performances to level out. Just taking a quick rip down the SV% list this year(min 20 playoff games):

Reg/Playoffs

Fred: .916/.914
Helle: .917/.910
Varly: .916/.918
Swayman: .919/.922
Bob: .915/.907
Binnington: .908/.910
Talbot: .913/.915
Shesty: .921/.928
Quick: .911/.921
Sorokin: .919/.919
Saros: .917/.911
Markstrom: .909/.911
Oettinger: .913/.915
Skinner: .909/.889 (lol)
Kuemper: .914/.908
Gibson: .910/.912
MAF: .912/.911
Georgiev: .908/.904
Grubauer: .911/.910
Vasy: .917/.920
Jones: .905/.917

So like, Stuart Skinner is basically it. Martin Jones on the other end, but his teams didn't make the playoffs in the many years he was dogshit enough to drag his early career (~.915) save percentage down.

Everyone else is pretty much spot on with the regular season performance after ~20 games.
Click to expand...
Point taken, certainly different than what I've observed in the regular season but that is interesting. With that said, the point still stands. The swings and variance are just gonna be more prevalent than they are with forwards or d on a playoff to playoff and series to series basis. Which is fine. So you either acquire goaltenders that exude consistency and pay a middling amount of money for them, acquire a Shesty type freak and pay him whatever he wants, or try to find a value play that has proven he can work in a tandem to work with Woll for next year and use the rest of the cash to spam the roster with talent and become a Florida-esque fluggernaut.

I don't think any one of those is any better than the others. There is no blueprint. It's all situational. I think from a roster optimization standpoint the last option is gonna work the most often just because of the lack of elite or truly consistent goalies out there, but that doesn't mean it's the only way to do things. And if they choose the last option I will not support it if they use the money to sign Eddy's and Boosh's but that goes without saying.
 
Last edited:
I think the key is just to secure the guy with the best recent (2-3 yr split) performance in a similar role to what you want him in, and then take a shot on cheap upside for his backup/1B. If playoff performance normalizes to regular season performance, just get the best regular season performer you can find within reasonable acquisition cost/AAV restrictions.
 
Up until one game from now, Bob had won nothing.

Price won nothing.

Shitsturkeys has won nothing.

Helle, Swayman, Oettinger - nothing.

Rinne never won.

Vasy won, but has also been poop.

This Florida win means zero to whether it makes sense to invest in a big name goalie or go out of your way to acquire someone who has nice regular seasons but has proven nothing in the playoffs.

The goaltending thing is lightning in a bottle. If a guy gets hot, while the team he plays on is good and performing well, then you have the right lucky mix of the elements that you need to win. But you can't know which of these goalies will get hot at any given time.

So go with the kids and guys with a solid track record who won't cost too much. If the difference between a playoff series win or loss is ONE fucking goal like it is for us basically every year, I'd rather invest in the 18 guys to score one more goal than to pay some guy to get lucky enough to save one more shot.
 
There is a scenario where I'd invest more in a goalie though - and that's where we draft and develop him and he proves to be consistently good in both the regular season and playoffs while he's playing cheaply in ELC and mid years. Then I'm good throwing that 5x5 deal at him or whatever.

But Ullmark hasn't shown anything. Saros has a .911 in the playoffs and yet is 5-11 somehow. I'm not exactly dying to bring these guys in on a 5x5 and send 1sts out the door for the privilege. They're just as likely to turn into the next Campbell as they are to become playoff saviors.
 
Preston said:
5x5 for Saros is optimistic. I'd do that for sure. He wouldn't though.
Click to expand...
If there's anyone who deserves it, it'd be him. He's had an awesome run in the regular season. Not just consistent, but consistently kinda amazing.

But then, two of the last three playoffs, not so much. Hasn't been able to drag the Preds out of the first round yet. So what, do we send them a 1st plus and then throw $6M or $7M at him? It's just kinda crazy.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
If there's anyone who deserves it, it'd be him. He's had an awesome run in the regular season. Not just consistent, but consistently kinda amazing.

But then, two of the last three playoffs, not so much. Hasn't been able to drag the Preds out of the first round yet. So what, do we send them a 1st plus and then throw $6M or $7M at him? It's just kinda crazy.
Click to expand...
I don't go 5 years for many goalies but at 5m he'd be a no brainer. At this stage. Of course he could have another weak year next year and then it's a different conversation. But even then he'd still probably get 5x5. Some truly shit goalies get that contract pretty often in a lower cap environment
 
MindzEye said:
Florida is not an exception though. Vegas is the only recent cup winner to not invest in the position and that was because the goalie they had already invested in fell apart physically so they had to make other plans on the fly. Florida, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAK all invested significant AAV in goaltending. They were able to chew gum and walk at the same time.

Every recent Cup winning front office has been willing to put significant investment in net. There is no magic front office out there winning cups without investing in net.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Like Freddy Anderson.
 
The only lesson i learn every year is that cup teams have a number of impact if not elite players for peanuts, and position doesn't matter.

This year FLA is getting legit elite performance from forsling verhaeghe montour for depth prices. Oilers from Hyman and Bouchard. And every cup winner has something similar.

I not sure we've had any of those since our core was on ELCs
 
Last edited:
zeke said:
The only lesson i learn every year is that cup teams have a number of impact if not elite players for peanuts, and position doesn't matter.

This year FLA is getting legit elite performance from forsling verhaeghe montour for depth prices. Oilers from Hyman and Bouchard. And every cup winner has something similar.

I not sure we've had any of those since our core was on ELCs
Click to expand...
We absolutely have not had this
 
zeke said:
The only lesson i learn every year is that cup teams have a number of impact if not elite players for peanuts, and position doesn't matter.

This year FLA is getting legit elite performance from forsling verhaeghe montour for depth prices. Oilers from Hyman and Bouchard. And every cup winner has something similar.

I not sure we've had any of those since our core was on ELCs
Click to expand...

McMann was primed to be one going into the playoffs.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top