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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

MindzEye said:
Yeah, Rantanen would fetch quite a bit. More than that Leaf package imo.

Part of the benefit from Carolina's standpoint is being out from the Necas money as well, which they'll redeploy more along the usual requirements of their sacred algo than it was on Necas.

Also, this might be a bit of a negotiating tactic from Carolina. They're the only team that can give the 8th year on the deal, so if they're trying to get Rantanen's number down a bit, or think that it's higher than what he'll get on the open market, it makes sense to float this out there as other contending teams might look at him as pure rental and then he loses the ability to get that 8th year. Not a big deal probably, but something that might get your 8 yr contract ask to come down a few hundred K.
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I think we may see more guys going short on deals with the cap going up as quickly as it is projected to. Rantanen is 28 (29 at season start next year). Does he want an 7/8 year deal as a guy taking up 13ish% of the 2025/2026 cap or does he take a 2 yesr deal and then bank on getting 12-13% of the 27/28 projected cap number.
 
MindzEye said:
Depends on what you think Necas is. Remember when they tried to trade him in the summer and no one wanted to touch his contract ask?

What did they give up on top of Necas? Drury (4th line C?) a 2nd and a 4th. Gotta imagine the get something pretty okay for Rantanen as a rental.
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i mean they're trying to contend, no?

There's two prongs to this deal:

1. Is rantanen actually an upgrade over necas for them this year?

2. Is rantanen more likely to sign a good value longterm deal with them than necas?

If they're changing their minds this quickly on rantanen, then they can only be looking at what has happened since the trade - and since the trade Necas's speed has been a seamless fit with Colorado and he's fully replaced Rants, while Rants looks much more limited in Carolina's system than he did with MacKinnon (and we know what the stats said about his time wihtout mackinnon in colorado).

And if they've changed their minds due to contract demands - then why the heck do they make the trade without knowing his contract demands?

Maybe he pulls a rabbit out of a hat in a re-trade but this seems like an awkward way of going about it.

Then again, the Canes have been pretty mediocre since their hot first ~20gms, so maybe he's not trying to contend anymore. But then that has to bring into question his offseason performance.
 
zeke said:
1. Is rantanen actually an upgrade over necas for them this year?
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Anything is possible under the sun of course, Necas has had a good start in Colorado, Ranty a poor one in Carolina. But assuming regressing to their personal means....yeah, and a signficant upgrade at that. Like...a lot a lot.

zeke said:
2. Is rantanen more likely to sign a good value longterm deal with them than necas?
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I don't think either are tbh. Rantanen was probably looking to break that Mackinnon glass ceiling, and Necas was a difficult RFA signing coming off of a 53 point year. With that said, I'd probably rather pay Rantanen 13 million than Necas 9. But that's based on the assumptions that 1) Rantanen isn't a creation of Mackinnon & 2) Necas is having a one off career year that he's unlikely to replicate going forward. Either or both of which could be faulty, they're just what I think are most likely.

imo judging anything on 8 games since the trade is a good way to fuck up.
 
but apparently he is judging something on 8 games or else....didn't know what he was getting into in his first big trade?....or else was always trying to flip him?
 
zeke said:
but apparently he is judging something on 8 games or else....didn't know what he was getting into in his first big trade?....or else was always trying to flip him?
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Like I said though, I don't think Tulsky looked at Necas as a positive asset, or at least much of one. They shopped him last summer before signing him to the RFA deal, we have to assume he got a pretty good gauge of what Necas' value was at the time and it was low enough that he said fuck it and signed him instead to a short term deal he clearly didn't want to sign him to. Getting a cheapish look at Rantanen might have been a 2nd order benefit to him.

If Tulsky ends up moving on from Rantanen for the type of return we would expect (1st + good prospect + roster player he likes) the total deal ends up being

Necas + Drury + 2nd +3rd + 4th
for
Hall + 1st + A/B prospect + roster player

Whether or not that's a Tulsky win in the end really comes down to your view of Necas as a long term asset imo. Also, with Rantanen only being 4.6 on the books here, the package above might be on the light end of things. It wouldn't be crazy to see ~10 teams in on him as a deadline add.
 
2yr stats

Necas (26.1): 1.54p1/60, 2.09p/60, 1.82avg, 52.2xgf% (-3.4rel) --- PP 2.17p1/60, 2.94p/60, 2.56avg
Rants (28.3): 1.71p1/60, 2.16p/60, 1.94avg, 53.1xgf% (-0.4rel) ---- PP 2.58p1/60, 3.34p/60, 2.96avg

and Necas is superfast while Rants is superslow.

and now factor in the MacKinnon effect.
 
zeke said:
2yr stats

Necas (26.1): 1.54p1/60, 2.09p/60, 1.82avg, 52.2xgf% (-3.4rel) --- PP 2.17p1/60, 2.94p/60, 2.56avg
Rants (28.3): 1.71p1/60, 2.16p/60, 1.94avg, 53.1xgf% (-0.4rel) ---- PP 2.58p1/60, 3.34p/60, 2.96avg

and Necas is superfast while Rants is superslow.

and now factor in the MacKinnon effect.
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Cool, but Tulsky is the hyper nerd. He knows all of that and still didn't value Necas. The bad possession play had something to do with it I'm sure, but also that this year is a pretty decent sized outlier for Necas.

1740172935961.png

That happens to coincide with a career high OISH%

1740173031970.png

So could this be a Necas breakout? Sure, maybe. I don't think so, but sure, maybe. Tulsky had been trying to move him since the summer though, so yeah I don't know how much of this deal was about Rantanen for him.
 
for reference:

Matthews (27.4): 2.38p1/60, 2.78p/60, 2.58avg, 55.9xgf% (+4.6rel) --- PP 5.18p1/60, 6.43p/60, 5.80avg
Marner (27.8): 1.90p1/60, 2.60p/60, 2.25avg, 52.7xgf% (+0.4rel) ------ PP 5.73p1/60, 7.37p/60, 6.55avg

Nylander (28.8): 1.91p1/60, 2.19p/60, 2.06avg, 51.6xgf% (-0.3rel) ---- PP 4.35p1/60, 6.65p/60, 5.50avg
Rants (28.3): 1.71p1/60, 2.16p/60, 1.94avg, 53.1xgf% (-0.4rel) -------- PP 4.34p1/60, 5.75p/60, 5.05avg
Necas (26.1): 1.54p1/60, 2.09p/60, 1.82avg, 52.2xgf% (-3.4rel) -0----- PP 4.01p1/60, 5.68p/60, 4.85avg
Tavares (34.4): 1.60p1/60, 2.05p/60, 1.83avg, 53.6xgf% (+2.1rel) ----- PP 3.09p1/60, 4.55p/60, 3.82avg
 
I think Rantanen and Aho are best friends, I would assume part of the rationale for this trade was for them to play together. Not that it would prove much either way cause it's way too early, but what do the nerdies say about their time on the #1 line? Maybe not great so far, but it takes time for anyone to adjust to a new situation. Just way too early to come to any conclusions.

If they are shopping him, it would have to be because they don't believe he will re-sign there.
 
axlsalinger said:
I think Rantanen and Aho are best friends, I would assume part of the rationale for this trade was for them to play together. Not that it would prove much either way cause it's way too early, but what do the nerdies say about their time on the #1 line? Maybe not great so far, but it takes time for anyone to adjust to a new situation. Just way too early to come to any conclusions.

If they are shopping him, it would have to be because they don't believe he will re-sign there.
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I think it's the usual Carolina thing - amazing nerdies with mediocre actual production.
 
I would assume if they flip him its because Rantanen wouldn't sign there.

Also I think Brindy didn’t like Necas cause he’s soft, and no one else was offering value for him. They also play a dump and chase/not rush type game which isn’t what Necas is.
 
leafman101 said:
I would assume if they flip him its because Rantanen wouldn't sign there.

Also I think Brindy didn’t like Necas cause he’s soft, and no one else was offering value for him. They also play a dump and chase/not rush type game which isn’t what Necas is.
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Yeah, from Carolina's standpoint it looks like this is more about getting value for an asset they didn't value than it was about getting Rantanen.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, from Carolina's standpoint it looks like this is more about getting value for an asset they didn't value than it was about getting Rantanen.
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But rantanen is the only value they got. Sounds like we’re trying to spin a pretzel that this is a success for Tully bc he’s a nerd.
 
mbow30 said:
But rantanen is the only value they got. Sounds like we’re trying to spin a pretzel that this is a success for Tully bc he’s a nerd.
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But they can flip Rantanen at the deadline for other stuff, very likely better stuff than they were being offered for Necas when they tried to trade him in the summer.
 
MindzEye said:
But they can flip Rantanen at the deadline for other stuff, very likely better stuff than they were being offered for Necas when they tried to trade him in the summer.
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Turning necas a second 4th and drury into a first rounder and a prospect plus hall doesn’t seem like a coup to me.
 
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