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Around the League 2019-2025 Edition

I probably wouldn’t trade 8 of the last 11 1sts ( Bedard, Power, Hughes, Dahlin, Matthews, McDavid, Ekblad, Mackinnon). And even after that Hischier is pretty good but I guess not untouchable. Just 2 that was a massive mistake to keep and make the pick.
 
zeke said:
I mean....his analysis is weak and covered already by xG tho?
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He's answering a different question than the others. He's looking at it from a different perspective of what it's like a o actually work for a team. Telling a coach "the xgf needs to improve" vs "this is where the team is falling short specifically." But I agree it's nothing mindblowing. Just something different
 
I think he’s right in that hockey twitter is good at analysis but sucks at solutions. but xG is the only good publicly available data so it’s tough to make the point effectively using xG.

“You can’t just say xG sucks, you have to say ‘look you aren’t creating enough xG”.
 
Theoretically, with chips on every player you should be able to use analytics to figure out HOW to improve xG. Not just “shoot in the slot more”. That’s not actionable either.

Btw he is the Calgary Cam Charon so..
 
leafman101 said:
I probably wouldn’t trade 8 of the last 11 1sts ( Bedard, Power, Hughes, Dahlin, Matthews, McDavid, Ekblad, Mackinnon). And even after that Hischier is pretty good but I guess not untouchable. Just 2 that was a massive mistake to keep and make the pick.
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I guess it depends on what you're trading it for. I'd argue that a trade down was the play for most of those if you were getting another asset in combination.

Mack - Keep
Ekblad - Leon at the 3
Connor - Untouchable
Auston - Untouchable
Hischier - Heisk at 3, Makar at 4,
Dahlin - Brady at 4, Hughes at 7
Hughes - Keep
Laf - Stutzle at 3
Power - MacTavish at 3
Slaf - Lol
Bedard - Keep

Keeping the 1 is definitely the safe choice, but for how often the 1st overall doesn't turn out to be the best player, it doesn't get traded nearly enough.

and yes, this is obviously in hindsight, though that's what you have the multi million dollar scouting and analytics departments for.
 
Preston said:
He's answering a different question than the others. He's looking at it from a different perspective of what it's like a o actually work for a team. Telling a coach "the xgf needs to improve" vs "this is where the team is falling short specifically." But I agree it's nothing mindblowing. Just something different
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But there's no difference between "get more slot shots" and "improve xG"?
 
leafman101 said:
Theoretically, with chips on every player you should be able to use analytics to figure out HOW to improve xG. Not just “shoot in the slot more”. That’s not actionable either.

Btw he is the Calgary Cam Charon so..
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Yeah I guess its about the diagnosis and a coach's job is to devise a plan for the solution.

You can see a clear difference between the twitter nerds and the nerds who worked for teams in the way they think, that's for sure
 
zeke said:
But there's no difference between "get more slot shots" and "improve xG"?
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To a head coach? Sure there is. Not to mention it's not impossible to rack up the xgf by volume as opposed to high danger. But mostly he's just showing the scars of what it's like as a data guy on an NHL team for 5+ years trying to communicate these concepts to GM's and coaches. Cam's experiences came across as similar.
 
I mean there's ways of breaking down beyond xG - i.e. all slot shots are not the same - but his breakdown of shot location as an interesting variable seems a weird one, given that that's already well accounted for.
 
MindzEye said:
Some fun with numbers.

If the oilers lose tonight, they'll have 5 points in 11 games to start the season. It took 95 points to make the playoffs in the west last season, to hit 95 points they would have to play at a 104 point pace the rest of the way. That would be the 2nd best run of play in the Connor McDavid era.

A bit more of this and they're probably missing the playoffs.

If they miss the playoffs, I doubt Leon signs an extension in the summer if he doesn't flat out demand a trade. If Leon asks out, does Connor stick around?

This run of form might be the killing Oil Change V2 (3?)
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If Leon stays so will McDavid.
If Leon leaves so will McDavid.
 
LeafGm said:
This OilChange situation is a delicate dance. I want it to be soul-crushing and terrible enough for McDavid in Edmonton that he leaves as a UFA to come here.

But then it can’t be so acutely horrible that he demands a trade before his contract’s up.
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His gooning was an audition for the bruins
 
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