zeke
Well-known member
the most annoying thing about Dom's model, as always, is that it doesn't separate out the PP.
For Borje - The Toronto Maple Leafs 2023 Stanley Cup Champions Thread
- Thread starter zeke
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the most annoying thing about Dom's model, as always, is that it doesn't separate out the PP.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
It’s a pretty good read….given that it’s very hard to explain the lack of post season success — this is at least as good as anything out there
www.sportsnet.ca
Why Maple Leafs fell short again and what to do with Matthews, Marner
So another disappointing end to a Maple Leafs season comes with huge off-season questions. Justin Bourne looks at exactly why this year's group fell short again, and explores what it should mean for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and more.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
There's a few questions and pieces of context an analysis like that needs to answer for me
- How much of that is tactics? We don't play fast transition hockey anymore so an entire category of offensive chances that we used to fucking farm for goals basically evaporates. We also value moving the puck up and down the half boards to maintain possession over rotating D to the middle for point shots to look for tips and rebounds. How many times did we see Marner & Matthews rotate to the blueline to take a 50 foot one timer ffs? Those are tactical decisions instead of parking Matthews in the low slot to net front and letting him work tips and rebounds.
- How do those declines compare to the Leafs as a group (not just a few isolated players) and similarly talented players league wide? I mean, it stands to reason that most players would see an increase in shot distance and a decrease in shots from premium areas of the ice in the playoffs. The way the game is officiated seems tuned specifically to turn premium ice into a complete fucking war zone.
- How much of that is tactics? We don't play fast transition hockey anymore so an entire category of offensive chances that we used to fucking farm for goals basically evaporates. We also value moving the puck up and down the half boards to maintain possession over rotating D to the middle for point shots to look for tips and rebounds. How many times did we see Marner & Matthews rotate to the blueline to take a 50 foot one timer ffs? Those are tactical decisions instead of parking Matthews in the low slot to net front and letting him work tips and rebounds.
- How do those declines compare to the Leafs as a group (not just a few isolated players) and similarly talented players league wide? I mean, it stands to reason that most players would see an increase in shot distance and a decrease in shots from premium areas of the ice in the playoffs. The way the game is officiated seems tuned specifically to turn premium ice into a complete fucking war zone.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
For sure. I would like to see comparative data that includes star players from all the remaining teams but since the numbers come from Sportlogiq, I assume he could only publish some of their proprietary analytics. So, yeah, I am semi trusting that he saw the rest of the league's numbers and found a discrepancy worth mentioning
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I'd like to see how it compares to the Canes, who I'm always skeptical of when seeing their nerdies. Love the team, but their nerdies are often otherworldly and I do know they lack shot quality which has to impact things. 60% xgf% on the season this year. No one was even close.
Artnes
Well-known member
The Leafs did have some players whose portion of shots from the slot went up in playoffs, and it’s who you’d expect – Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, and Sam Lafferty to name a few.
Two crazy stats that are somewhat related: One, is that Matthew Knies had five regular season shots, 100 per cent of which were slot shots. He had six shots in the playoffs, and 90.9 per cent of them (so, five) were slot shots. Make no mistake, they missed him later in the series.
Two crazy stats that are somewhat related: One, is that Matthew Knies had five regular season shots, 100 per cent of which were slot shots. He had six shots in the playoffs, and 90.9 per cent of them (so, five) were slot shots. Make no mistake, they missed him later in the series.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
true...but this attempt isn't as lazy as that...far from it, really
and it's presented as hypothesis instead of a blowhard conclusion...there's also some decent riffing on d-men play in their own zone against heightened playoff forechecking
zeke
Well-known member
Dubois strikes me as the guarantee overpay UFA this year. Not really into Tarasenko either.
O'Reilly i'm also probably out on if he maxes his offers.
of course, suddenly we'd not only not be able to move Tavares to the wing but would be hard pressed to dig up a good 3C.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Dunno man. Pulling 2-3 stats from sportsloqic takes about the same amount of time for me to pull xGA & xGF on natty.
It's not a hit piece, but it also doesn't provide necessary context to tell us whether or not those numbers he presented actually mean much of anything, instead using a few isolated examples of gritty gud pros (with much smaller shooting samples) to show that it's bad.
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hockeylover
Well-known member
Nice. Not entirely surprising though, this really stood out in college.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Wanted to follow up on this....
Lafferty had 8 shots in the playoffs, Acciari had 7. Using either of them with that kind of sample in a comparison against any of the "core 4" is trying to push a sneaky hidden narrative imo. That's just not a sample that can be representative of anything at all, ever.
zeke
Well-known member
Manny used to track shot distance on his site. I liked it. wish it was still around.
E-H has iXG/60 at least.
5v5 playoffs (284 players with 50+ min)
1. Hintz 1.65
2. MacKinnon 1.64
3. Foegele 1.40
4. Hyman 1.38
5. Hischier 1.34
17. Tavares 1.23
19. Nylander 1.15
25. Matthews 1.09
64. Bunting 0.84
82. Knies 0.78
86. Kerfoot 0.75
91. ZAR 0.75
96. Jarnkrok 0.71
108. Kampf 0.66
137. Marner 0.56
145. Acciari 0.52
146. O'Reilly 0.52
185. Lafferty 0.32
200. Rielly 0.25
215. Giordano 0.20
223. Schenn 0.18
227. McCabe 0.17
249. Liljegren 0.13
253. Brodie 0.12
275. Holl 0.07
5v5 Regular Season (593 players with 500+ minutes)
1. Hyman 1.38
2. Zucker 1.37
3. B.Tkachuk 1.35
4. Lee 1.34
5. Matthews 1.33
10. Tavares 1.19
23. Bunting 1.11
30. Nylander 1.08
149. Acciari 0.81
151. Kerfoot 0.80
159. Jarnkrok 0.79
207. ZAR 0.73
218. O'Reilly 0.72
265. Kampf 0.65
330. Lafferty 0.56
336. Marner 0.55
406. Rielly 0.28
412. Gustafsson 0.26
491. McCabe 0.18
517. Liljegren 0.17
528. Schenn 0.16
545. Giordano 0.15
562. Brodie 0.13
571. Holl 0.12
5v4 Playoffs (166 players with 5+ minutes)
1. Bertuzzi 6.31
2. Seguin 5.51
3. Hyman 4.72
4. Haula 4.30
5. Noesen 4.12
23. Kerfoot 3.22
25. O'Reilly 3.17
28. Jarnkrok 3.07
36. Tavares 2.59
38. Nylander 2.51
44. Matthews 2.17
88. Marner 1.23
98. Bunting 1.07
153. Rielly 0.28
154. Giordano 0.27
5v4 Regular Season (272 players with 100+ minutes)
1. Tavares 4.92
2. B.Tkachul 3.80
3. Kreider 3.76
4. Ek 3.70
5. Hyman 3.61
23. Matthews 2.66
50. Nylander 2.37
89. Bunting 1.98
208. Marner 0.95
250. Rielly 0.55
E-H has iXG/60 at least.
5v5 playoffs (284 players with 50+ min)
1. Hintz 1.65
2. MacKinnon 1.64
3. Foegele 1.40
4. Hyman 1.38
5. Hischier 1.34
17. Tavares 1.23
19. Nylander 1.15
25. Matthews 1.09
64. Bunting 0.84
82. Knies 0.78
86. Kerfoot 0.75
91. ZAR 0.75
96. Jarnkrok 0.71
108. Kampf 0.66
137. Marner 0.56
145. Acciari 0.52
146. O'Reilly 0.52
185. Lafferty 0.32
200. Rielly 0.25
215. Giordano 0.20
223. Schenn 0.18
227. McCabe 0.17
249. Liljegren 0.13
253. Brodie 0.12
275. Holl 0.07
5v5 Regular Season (593 players with 500+ minutes)
1. Hyman 1.38
2. Zucker 1.37
3. B.Tkachuk 1.35
4. Lee 1.34
5. Matthews 1.33
10. Tavares 1.19
23. Bunting 1.11
30. Nylander 1.08
149. Acciari 0.81
151. Kerfoot 0.80
159. Jarnkrok 0.79
207. ZAR 0.73
218. O'Reilly 0.72
265. Kampf 0.65
330. Lafferty 0.56
336. Marner 0.55
406. Rielly 0.28
412. Gustafsson 0.26
491. McCabe 0.18
517. Liljegren 0.17
528. Schenn 0.16
545. Giordano 0.15
562. Brodie 0.13
571. Holl 0.12
5v4 Playoffs (166 players with 5+ minutes)
1. Bertuzzi 6.31
2. Seguin 5.51
3. Hyman 4.72
4. Haula 4.30
5. Noesen 4.12
23. Kerfoot 3.22
25. O'Reilly 3.17
28. Jarnkrok 3.07
36. Tavares 2.59
38. Nylander 2.51
44. Matthews 2.17
88. Marner 1.23
98. Bunting 1.07
153. Rielly 0.28
154. Giordano 0.27
5v4 Regular Season (272 players with 100+ minutes)
1. Tavares 4.92
2. B.Tkachul 3.80
3. Kreider 3.76
4. Ek 3.70
5. Hyman 3.61
23. Matthews 2.66
50. Nylander 2.37
89. Bunting 1.98
208. Marner 0.95
250. Rielly 0.55
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
That part was weak and distracted from the major point — do the Leaf stars play differently?
It’s just one article, not the definitive last word, and like I said initially, better than most
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Going to have to politely disagree. As soon as you intentionally bring players with 8 & 7 shots respectively into the conversation (samples that are entirely useless to analyze) and hold them up in contrast, you're injecting sneaky narrative into the piece, especially when you just slide them in after former conn smythe trophy winner Ryan O'Reilly.
The undertone is a common one pushed in the city's media. "gritty" players like ROR, Acciari & lol...Lafferty play "playoff hockey". The "core 4" don't. That he dresses this argument up prettier than most people bother to doesn't change it's base.
I think you're giving way too much benefit of the doubt to someone whose day job is sitting across from Kypreos on a podcast.
