For Borje - The Toronto Maple Leafs 2023 Stanley Cup Champions Thread

[Preston]

I, for one, have always supported Keefe's hard line matching

 

[zeke]

I will toss this up to limiting ice time due to the third being a shit show but Keefe better not continue this trend moving forward.

The Kampf line seemed to pass the eye test last night but they got absolutely eaten alive again last night

Player	TOI
Auston Matthews	12.7​
Mitchell Marner	12.56666667​
Zach Aston-Reese	11.73333333​
Matthew Knies	11.7​
David Kampf	11.66666667​
Sam Lafferty	11.41666667​
Alexander Kerfoot	11.38333333​
Calle Jarnkrok	9.533333333​

hmm the numbers i have says they were excellent.

 

[LeafGm]

EV xgf% (dzs +/-)

Matthews 55.0 (-7.9) ----- Point 28.3 (-16.1)
Marner 71.9 (-11.4) ----- Kucherov 26.8 (-15.2)
Nylander 56.5 (-9.3) ----- Stamkos 30.4 (-8.6)

O'Reilly 56.4 (-3.0) ----- Paul 26.1 (+13.5)
Acciari 71.6 (+6.1) ----- Hagel 27.9 (+2.3)
Bunting 65.9 (-16.7) ----- Killorn 37.8 (+0.0)

Tavares 44.9 (-12.1) ----- Cirelli 31.3 (+0.0)
Kerfoot 70.2 (-17.9) ----- Colton 43.6 (+11.4)
Jarnkrok 79.2 (+0.0) ----- Jeannot 12.3 (+0.0)

Kampf 60.4 (+22.2) ----- Bellemare 61.4 (-6.7)
Lafferty 58.3 (+20.7) ----- Perry 73.8 (-3.1)
ZAR 53.7 (+20.7) ----- Maroon 59.5 (-3.1)

Knies 84.6 (+12.5) ----- Eyssimont 17.4 (+0.0)


Brodie 85.5 (+7.3) ----- Hedman 78.8 (-11.1)
McCabe 55.0 (+4.4) ----- Sergachev 15.4 (+0.0)

Rielly 64.2 (+2.3) ----- Cole 45.6 (+8.5)
Schenn 75.3 (+2.6) ----- Cernak 8.0 (+11.8)

Holl 42.1 (-2.2) ----- Raddysh 11.4 (-4.3)
Giordano 47.3 (-2.4) ----- Perbix 56.4 (+0.0)

Liljegren --- (----) ----- Bogosian 45.7 (+0.0)
Gustafsson --- (----) ----- Fleury 15.5 (+0.0)

​

Brodie is just kinda elite, seems like. Just dominating in the toughest usage. Acciari has also been a big time beast.

And because Keefe is a genius, our 4th line has also been awesome. it's not just dzone starts but they've also been matched up against the bolts top lines mostly, and they're kicking ass.

Their 4th line has been beastly too, but that line gets the softest usage on their team.

On the downside, Tavares is the only one not keeping up at even strength, while Gio-Holl aren't just seeing bad luck out there - they're getting significantly outplayed despite not having their usual tough usage.



For Tampa, there's not much to be happy about from their forwards.

On defense, Cole has been pretty darn good for them keeping his head above water despite the tough usage.

But Sergachev is just getting buried out there in a tougher role. He needs some help and quick.

​

So, Schenn = Backbone?

And maybe Holl’s the guy to take a look at if we want to get Lilly back into the lineup?

 

[zeke]

this week's rollercoaster aside, the series doesn't really start until somebody can be eliminated. some of these early games get a bit goofy. no different than last year with us stomping them 5-0 in the opener.

this version of the Leafs still needs to face down the dragon of actually ending another team's season.

this time we've got a big advantage with the dmen they're missing. if we hadn't lost 6 times in a row I would be more excited about that...nevertheless, it's there for the taking. Just as it was last year with Brayden Point getting hurt.

amazing how only bolts players are hurt or missing.

 

[zeke]

So, Schenn = Backbone?

And maybe Holl’s the guy to take a look at if we want to get Lilly back into the lineup?

possible. schenn has been mistake free while holl seems to be pooping himself.

 

[Wayward DP]

EV xgf% (dzs +/-)

Matthews 55.0 (-7.9) ----- Point 28.3 (-16.1)
Marner 71.9 (-11.4) ----- Kucherov 26.8 (-15.2)
Nylander 56.5 (-9.3) ----- Stamkos 30.4 (-8.6)

O'Reilly 56.4 (-3.0) ----- Paul 26.1 (+13.5)
Acciari 71.6 (+6.1) ----- Hagel 27.9 (+2.3)
Bunting 65.9 (-16.7) ----- Killorn 37.8 (+0.0)

Tavares 44.9 (-12.1) ----- Cirelli 31.3 (+0.0)
Kerfoot 70.2 (-17.9) ----- Colton 43.6 (+11.4)
Jarnkrok 79.2 (+0.0) ----- Jeannot 12.3 (+0.0)

Kampf 60.4 (+22.2) ----- Bellemare 61.4 (-6.7)
Lafferty 58.3 (+20.7) ----- Perry 73.8 (-3.1)
ZAR 53.7 (+20.7) ----- Maroon 59.5 (-3.1)

Knies 84.6 (+12.5) ----- Eyssimont 17.4 (+0.0)


Brodie 85.5 (+7.3) ----- Hedman 78.8 (-11.1)
McCabe 55.0 (+4.4) ----- Sergachev 15.4 (+0.0)

Rielly 64.2 (+2.3) ----- Cole 45.6 (+8.5)
Schenn 75.3 (+2.6) ----- Cernak 8.0 (+11.8)

Holl 42.1 (-2.2) ----- Raddysh 11.4 (-4.3)
Giordano 47.3 (-2.4) ----- Perbix 56.4 (+0.0)

Liljegren --- (----) ----- Bogosian 45.7 (+0.0)
Gustafsson --- (----) ----- Fleury 15.5 (+0.0)

​

Brodie is just kinda elite, seems like. Just dominating in the toughest usage. Acciari has also been a big time beast.

And because Keefe is a genius, our 4th line has also been awesome. it's not just dzone starts but they've also been matched up against the bolts top lines mostly, and they're kicking ass.

Their 4th line has been beastly too, but that line gets the softest usage on their team.

On the downside, Tavares is the only one not keeping up at even strength, while Gio-Holl aren't just seeing bad luck out there - they're getting significantly outplayed despite not having their usual tough usage.



For Tampa, there's not much to be happy about from their forwards.

On defense, Cole has been pretty darn good for them keeping his head above water despite the tough usage.

But Sergachev is just getting buried out there in a tougher role. He needs some help and quick.

​

wonder if Timmy slots in for Holl.

but Gio is looking his age for the first time all year, unfortunately.

Tampa's numbers a pretty fugly. That fucking fourth line though...

and yeah, ROR and Acciari are huge additions. now we have three lines.

 

[Wayward DP]

So, Schenn = Backbone?

And maybe Holl’s the guy to take a look at if we want to get Lilly back into the lineup?

yeah it pains me to say it but Schenn has been fine so far. and Mo looks great.

 

[Artnes]

hmm the numbers i have says they were excellent.

My bad you are correct. I had some columns mixed up when I pulled the data

Player

TOI

CF%

CF% Rel

FF%

FF% Rel

SF%

SF% Rel

GF%

GF% Rel

xGF%

xGF% Rel

SCF%

SCF% Rel

HDCF%

HDCF% Rel

Zach Aston-Reese

11.73333333​

40​

-15.26​

60​

7.17​

62.5​

5​

100​

40​

60.05​

-6​

28.57​

-25.09​

66.67​

0​

David Kampf

11.66666667​

41.18​

-14.23​

54.55​

0.7​

62.5​

5​

100​

40​

85.49​

23.76​

33.33​

-19.05​

100​

37.5​

Sam Lafferty

11.41666667​

33.33​

-24.2​

50​

-4.9​

55.56​

-3.42​

100​

40​

52.96​

-15.23​

22.22​

-34.19​

66.67​

0​

 

[Preston]

Credit where credit is due. May be close to time for zeke to delete his anti Schenn tweets and gaslight ME and I by mocking us for saying Schenn is shit. We'll give it a few more games of course.

 

[zeke]

Let me take a look at how EH breaks down each line playing together so far:

Jarnkrok - Matthews - Marner 10.5min, 92.3xgf%, 100.0gf%
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander 9.1min, 78.8xgf%, 100.0gf%
Knies - O'Reilly - Acciari 8.6min, 88.9xgf%, 50.0gf%
ZAR - Kampf - Lafferty 16min, 60.0xgf%, 48.3gf%

Bunting - Matthews - Marner 7.4min, 42.3xgf%, 50.0gf%
Tavares - O'Reilly - Nylander 9.5min, 24.7xgf%, 0.0gf%
Kerfoot - Acciari - Jarnkrok 5.2min, 3.5xgf%, 50.0gf%

 

[zeke]

Credit where credit is do. May be close to time for zeke to delete his anti Schenn tweets and gaslight ME and I by mocking us for saying Schenn is shit. We'll give it a few more games of course.

you and ME will be ok I promise. next year is looking UP.

 

[Artnes]

Credit where credit is due. May be close to time for zeke to delete his anti Schenn tweets and gaslight ME and I by mocking us for saying Schenn is shit. We'll give it a few more games of course.

The eye test is painful but he is doing ok

 

[Preston]

The eye test is painful but he is doing ok

He's been awesome. And Rielly stepping up has helped him along as well. Feels like any time the Leafs are hemmed in or give up a chance it's Holl on the ice. I like Holl usually so I hope he can get his shit together.

 

[axlsalinger]

 

[zeke]

let's use NST's opposition tool to breakdown who our dmen have been facing....


Brodie: vPoint 16:36 (83.1%), vPaul 8:25 (78.1%), vCirelli 6:46 (100.0%), vBellemare 2:04 (100.0%)
McCabe: vPoint 16:40 (69.6%), vPaul 8:34 (56.1%), vCirelli 6:15 (42.9%), vBellemare 4:36 (55.8%)

Rielly: vPaul 14:25 (67.1%), vBellemare 7:45 (25.0%), vCirelli 6:21 (97.6%), vPoint 5:28 (84.8%)
Schenn: vPaul 13:06 (95.0%), vBellemare 7:57 (25.3%), vCirelli 5:30 (98.2%), vPoint 4:57 (74.3%)

Holl: vCirelli 9:42 (79.5%), vBellemare 8:34 (49.6%), vPoint 6:22 (39.3%), vPaul 4:25 (43.4%)
Gio: vCirelli 8:54 (40.2%), vBellemare 8:34 (48.5%), vPoint 5:03 (35.0%), vPaul 3:52 (95.9%)


yeah can't even say the Gio-Holl pair is getting tougher matchups than Mo-Schnenn. I guess the Cirelli line is somewhat better than the Paul line but then again Cirelli is usuall matched up against Matthews so that means Gio-Holl gets to play with Matthews.


Rielly-Schenn seem to be doing well against everyone except for against their fucking 4th line.

 

[zeke]

 

[zeke]

 

[Artnes]

He's been awesome. And Rielly stepping up has helped him along as well. Feels like any time the Leafs are hemmed in or give up a chance it's Holl on the ice. I like Holl usually so I hope he can get his shit together.

This is a good opportinty for Timmy to get in. We have enough of a sample size to how Timmy/Gio was a good pairing

Player 1

Player 2

GP

TOI

CF%

FF%

SF%

GF%

xGF%

SCF%

HDCF%

HDGF%

On-Ice SH%

On-Ice SV%

PDO

Off. Zone Faceoffs

Neu. Zone Faceoffs

Def. Zone Faceoffs

Timothy Liljegren

Mark Giordano

63​

232.1​

50.88​

53.85​

56.75​

61.9​

54.51​

55.51​

52.67​

69.23​

9.09​

92.66​

1.018​

62​

72​

77​

 

[zeke]

This is a good opportinty for Timmy to get in. We have enough of a sample size to how Timmy/Gio was a good pairing

Player 1

Player 2

GP

TOI

CF%

FF%

SF%

GF%

xGF%

SCF%

HDCF%

HDGF%

On-Ice SH%

On-Ice SV%

PDO

Off. Zone Faceoffs

Neu. Zone Faceoffs

Def. Zone Faceoffs

Timothy Liljegren

Mark Giordano

63​

232.1​

50.88​

53.85​

56.75​

61.9​

54.51​

55.51​

52.67​

69.23​

9.09​

92.66​

1.018​

62​

72​

77​

The caveat is that Holl is the #1 PK guy.

 

[mbow30]

great start for Mitch. In the two other playoff series that he produced in (Bos in 2018 and TB in 2022) he produced early and tailed off. He’s got to keep this up.

good news? Auston is playing well but hasn’t scored yet. He goes off soon.