GDT #22: 2024/11/27 - Florida Man Thanksgiving

[leafman101]

This is their 3rd game this year keeping the opponent to less than 1 xG, but it’s the 4th game the Lwafs have had less than 1xGF.

The 5v5 offense is a big problem. Either Matthew’s solves everything, or Berube is walking us to another playoff series where we can’t score enoughx, just making us watch them do it all season too.

 

[mbow30]

This is their 3rd game this year keeping the opponent to less than 1 xG, but it’s the 4th game the Lwafs have had less than 1xGF.

The 5v5 offense is a big problem. Either Matthew’s solves everything, or Berube is walking us to another playoff series where we can’t score enoughx, just making us watch them do it all season too.

TBF they’ve been killed in the playoffs by spotty goaltending, defensive miscues and bad special teams, all of which have been pretty good over this stretch.

 

[leafman101]

Sure, but relying on special teams and goaltending to win in the playoffs is not the sweet spot of shared risk. There is so much luck involved.

And it makes even less sense when you are committing half your cap to 4 of the best 5v5 producers in the league, why do that and then nerf them.

Worst of all they do this every year. I thought they were supposed to be learning lessons.

 

[leafman101]

I remember reading a stat last year that 50-60% of playoff goals are scored off the rush.

They were already bad at that, but this year they try not to score on the rush

 

[Aberdeen]

They've been good off the rush over this recent run (eye-test only)

 

[leafman101]

xGF/60:
2023-24: Florida - 2.77 (9th)
2022-23: Vegas - 2.81 (10th)
2021-22: Avs - 2.58 (13th)
2020-21: Lightning - 2.35 (10th)
2019-20: Lighting - 2.49 (7th)
2018-19: Blues - 2.57 (8th)
2017-18: Caps - 2.35 (21st)
2016-17: Pens - 2.78 (1st)
2015-16: Pens - 2.55 (2nd)
2014-15: Blackhawks - 2.68 (7th)


2024-25: Leafs - 2.42 (19th)

Teams don't need to have the best 5v5 offense to win, but over the last 10 years 8 cup winners had top 10 5v5 offenses, and only 1 was as bad as the Leafs so far this year.

 

[zeke]

They were 9th (2.74) with Matthews in the lineup tho.

 

[Preston]

Banner?

 

[leafman101]

Leafs playoffs 5v5 xGF/60:
2023-24: 2.39 (9th)
2022-23: 2.64 (8th)
2021-22: 2.38 (12th)
2020-21: 2.5 (3rd)
2019-20: 2.08 (14th)*
2018-19: 2.48 (6th)
2017-18: 2.41 (3rd)
2016-17: 2.18 (9th)

*- fake playoffs

"We need better d!!"

 

[MindzEye]

Leafs playoffs 5v5 xGF/60:
2023-24: 2.39 (9th)
2022-23: 2.64 (8th)
2021-22: 2.38 (12th)
2020-21: 2.5 (3rd)
2019-20: 2.08 (14th)*
2018-19: 2.48 (6th)
2017-18: 2.41 (3rd)
2016-17: 2.18 (9th)

*- fake playoffs

"We need better d!!"

To a hammer, or a sack of them, every problem looks like a nail.

 

[Blueman]

Sure, but relying on special teams and goaltending to win in the playoffs is not the sweet spot of shared risk.

special teams and goaltending is the sweet spot in the playoffs, what are you on about?