At the end of the day I'd much rather have Matthews, Marner and Tavares than whatever else we could realistically get for that $33 mill.
Technically sure, you could look at it and say "Marner is the 6th best winger in the league, not the 3rd so he should be making 12.4% of the cap instead of 13.4", but practically it is splitting hairs. If he made 12.4% ($9.8 mill at the time he signed), he'd be the 7th highest paid winger, and 15th highest paid forward in the league, which if he is currently paid on the high end of his value, is the low end of his value.
I get the argument that other elite players signed for less and $1 mill saved here and there would help elsewhere. I don't buy the argument that Marner isn't really an elite all around player, or isn't worth the money though.
According to Dom's Model, Marner provides almost $14 mill/ year in value:
He is easily among the top 10 offensive players in the league, and he is also really good defensively (top 15 percentile), plays tough minutes, all special teams, and is still only 24 and just hitting his prime now. He's certainly in the argument for best winger in the league in any given year. Last year he was a first team all star.
The list of players that have put up the scoring numbers Marner has at his age is so small. In the cap era Marner and Matthews are 2 of 9 forwards to score 1+ ppg in their first 6-7 seasons before they turned 24 years old. The others are Crosby, McDavid, Malkin, Ovechkin, Stamkos and Draisaitl. Not only is Marner a top 5-10 offensive player now, he is likely a top 5-10 offensive player of his generation. That list is all first ballot hall of famers. Guys like Marchand and Panarin are elite, but they weren't as good as Marner at 24. Kucherov broke out by then, but even his ELC years weren't as good as Marner's.
What the hell are you doing with that money that is better for this team? Nothing.
