GDT #72: 9/4/22 HNIC - 50 in 50
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
hockeylover
Well-known member
57, 58 and 59th tonight pls.
Chance I may be at Tuesday's game.
Chance I may be at Tuesday's game.
trujaysfan
Well-known member
4 goal game tonight for matty.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I swear if we lose…
hockeylover
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
League goals were 15-20% higher during the era they all did that in. Era adjusted Auston would be at or around 300 right now. I will do a better breakdown shortly
zeke
Well-known member
Any breakdown needs to show PP production.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
No, u.
Volcanologist
Well-known member
can we please not play down to the habs level tonight? for once can we crush them as we should?
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I wasn’t expecting Holl to sit. I was expecting this Babushkie mystique to have faded already. Fucking nonsense. He’s our #7.
hockeylover
Well-known member
1 more goal for 50 in his last 50 games
1 more even strength goal to pass Frank Mahovlich for most in a season
1 more hat trick for most hat tricks by a Leaf in a season
3 more points to 100 pts
4 more goals to 60
4 more points to tie Gilmour and break into Top15 in all-time Leafs scoring
5 more goals to tie Wendel for 8th
10 more goals to beat Ovy's 65.
Let's gooooo.
1 more even strength goal to pass Frank Mahovlich for most in a season
1 more hat trick for most hat tricks by a Leaf in a season
3 more points to 100 pts
4 more goals to 60
4 more points to tie Gilmour and break into Top15 in all-time Leafs scoring
5 more goals to tie Wendel for 8th
10 more goals to beat Ovy's 65.
Let's gooooo.
Volcanologist
Well-known member
getting that last hat trick might be key to the OV record.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
And 11 more for 60 in 60!
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
After taking a quick look at it, H2H is probably the best way. I don't have the time or inclination to do more complicated math to be razor accurate here, but it's a better look at it than the Sportsnet tweet.
Auston v Gretz
- Gretz & Auston both started their careers at 19, so there's no additional context needed on that front. Gretz's 400 games were played between 79-84, and those seasons have a rough cummulative average of 3.83 goals per game. Gretz scored ~360 goals in those 400 games. Auston's 400 games were played in an era with an average of 2.97 goals per game. The era adjustment of Auston's 255 goals is 329 goals, with no age related context. Gretz still the king.
Auston v Mario
- Mario also a 19 yr old career start. Mario's era saw ~3.78 goals per game and he scored approx 322 (I'm not going game by game to figure exact totals...let someone whose getting paid for this figure that shit out, I'm using gpg in the season they passed 400gp when I need to figure out the margins here). Auston's approximate adjustment here is 325 goals, so we're at more or less a wash.
Auston v Bossy
- Bossy a 21 yr old career start, so edge to Auston there imo. Bossy's era averaged 3.70 gpg and he scored approx 315 goals. Matty's era adjustment is 318 goals. Slight edge coupled with the younger career start gives Auston a win here.
Auston v Hull
- Super late career start for Hull (Calgary fucked up...) at 23 yrs old, so a huge edge for Auston H2H here. Auston already had 150+ career goals before an age that Hull scored his first. Hull's era averaged 3.62 gpg and he scored roughly 315 goals in his first 400 games. Auston's era adjustment brings him to 311 goals, so we're more or less a wash. I would give Auston an edge here based on age. The difference between 19 and 23 is pretty massive. If we took Auston's 23-24 yr old seasons and extrapolated them out to 400 games, Auston would score roughly 330 goals before era adjustment brings him to a fucking eye popping 405.
Auston v Ovy
- Ovy with a 20 yr old career start, so a slight edge. Ovy does get a slighy era adjustment advantage with 2.91 gpg scored during this era. His raw total of ~270 edges Matthews out without adjustment. With adjustment Auston is at 250, but with having a 1 yr age advantage. I'd consider this a slight edge to Ovy.
Auston v Kurri
- Kurri with the 20 yr career start and a very similar era adjustment to Gretz (1 yr shifted difference). Kurri's raw total is roughly 265, so barely edging Auston out before any adjustment for era or age difference. We've already seen Auston era adjusted to the Oiler's ridiculous era, this isn't close and isn't worth doing the math. Papi in a landslide.
Auston v Selanne
- Selanne starts his career at 22, so huge advantage...and hot as fuck. Selanne starts his career right when the fun era is ending and the water skiing era is beginning so his era adjustment is pretty minor with 3.09 gpg. Selanne scored 260 goals over that first 400 games (I actually counted this one properly). Auston's adjusted total is 265, so edges him out on top of Selanne having 3 years of age advantage.
So Gretz & Ovy are obviously above. Mario a wash, and everyone else knows how Auston's ass tastes.
Auston v Gretz
- Gretz & Auston both started their careers at 19, so there's no additional context needed on that front. Gretz's 400 games were played between 79-84, and those seasons have a rough cummulative average of 3.83 goals per game. Gretz scored ~360 goals in those 400 games. Auston's 400 games were played in an era with an average of 2.97 goals per game. The era adjustment of Auston's 255 goals is 329 goals, with no age related context. Gretz still the king.
Auston v Mario
- Mario also a 19 yr old career start. Mario's era saw ~3.78 goals per game and he scored approx 322 (I'm not going game by game to figure exact totals...let someone whose getting paid for this figure that shit out, I'm using gpg in the season they passed 400gp when I need to figure out the margins here). Auston's approximate adjustment here is 325 goals, so we're at more or less a wash.
Auston v Bossy
- Bossy a 21 yr old career start, so edge to Auston there imo. Bossy's era averaged 3.70 gpg and he scored approx 315 goals. Matty's era adjustment is 318 goals. Slight edge coupled with the younger career start gives Auston a win here.
Auston v Hull
- Super late career start for Hull (Calgary fucked up...) at 23 yrs old, so a huge edge for Auston H2H here. Auston already had 150+ career goals before an age that Hull scored his first. Hull's era averaged 3.62 gpg and he scored roughly 315 goals in his first 400 games. Auston's era adjustment brings him to 311 goals, so we're more or less a wash. I would give Auston an edge here based on age. The difference between 19 and 23 is pretty massive. If we took Auston's 23-24 yr old seasons and extrapolated them out to 400 games, Auston would score roughly 330 goals before era adjustment brings him to a fucking eye popping 405.
Auston v Ovy
- Ovy with a 20 yr old career start, so a slight edge. Ovy does get a slighy era adjustment advantage with 2.91 gpg scored during this era. His raw total of ~270 edges Matthews out without adjustment. With adjustment Auston is at 250, but with having a 1 yr age advantage. I'd consider this a slight edge to Ovy.
Auston v Kurri
- Kurri with the 20 yr career start and a very similar era adjustment to Gretz (1 yr shifted difference). Kurri's raw total is roughly 265, so barely edging Auston out before any adjustment for era or age difference. We've already seen Auston era adjusted to the Oiler's ridiculous era, this isn't close and isn't worth doing the math. Papi in a landslide.
Auston v Selanne
- Selanne starts his career at 22, so huge advantage...and hot as fuck. Selanne starts his career right when the fun era is ending and the water skiing era is beginning so his era adjustment is pretty minor with 3.09 gpg. Selanne scored 260 goals over that first 400 games (I actually counted this one properly). Auston's adjusted total is 265, so edges him out on top of Selanne having 3 years of age advantage.
So Gretz & Ovy are obviously above. Mario a wash, and everyone else knows how Auston's ass tastes.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Sorry, this is the Leafs vs. Habs. So Jake Allen will channel both Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy tonight. It is known.
As an added bonus, the Leafs are starting Kallgren.
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
All of whom have the one thing that eludes 34. The ring.
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
I almost gifted you that chance. I'm in town and nearly bit the bullet and bought a ticket. Then I thought "If I go the Habs will get rolled for sure." So I decided not to go which now means that the Habs will destroy you just to piss me off.