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GDT #76: 2025/4/5 - just keep winning

leafman101 said:
The leafs are 8-1-1 in their last 10, with a 51.7 xgf% and the PP has been on fire since they went to 5F.

I don’t know that they’ve ever gone into the playoffs playing well. At the very least it’s been a while.
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They still have six games to fuck that up.

Man, I'd love to be optimistic about this years playoffs but I've been down that road way too many times.

The older I get the less faith I have it seems.
 
For once I kinda like the roster. Goalies are good. Defense is good. The 2 things I’ve been clamouring for them to shore up Tree has kinda done.

Sens fucking us up in rd 1 would probably end me as a fan. That would burn so bad.
 
They are related. +/- was basic and flawed, which limited its value, but it is also the foundation of some of the most useful stats in hockey.

And wasn’t there a study the last couple years that said GF% is a better predictor than xGF or Corsi? Which is great for the Leafs if I remember correctly.
 
Leafin' said:
For once I kinda like the roster. Goalies are good. Defense is good. The 2 things I’ve been clamouring for them to shore up Tree has kinda done.

Sens fucking us up in rd 1 would probably end me as a fan. That would burn so bad.
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I think it's the best it's been for a lot of years.

I really hope they can go on a good run but I won't hold my breath on that.
 
leafman101 said:
They are related. +/- was basic and flawed, which limited its value, but it is also the foundation of some of the most useful stats in hockey.
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It's fucking stupid. Nothing to do with expected goals.

Mo is +1 at evens this year but has been on for a shitload of empty net goals.

It's a dumb stat.
 
Leafin' said:
For once I kinda like the roster. Goalies are good. Defense is good. The 2 things I’ve been clamouring for them to shore up Tree has kinda done.

Sens fucking us up in rd 1 would probably end me as a fan. That would burn so bad.
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For all this team's flaws, I do think we've got the best defense core and best goaltending we've had so far in the entire Matthews era. And I do very much like that we've now got two big-bodied forwards who use their size effectively and have a natural goal-scoring touch in Knies & McMann.

But yeah...if the Shanahan era gives us an upset playoff loss to a mediocre Sens team, after having already previously given the fanbase two more game seven losses against the Bruins and a 3-1 series lead choke job against a godawful Habs team that had no business being in the playoffs in the first place...that'd be very tough to come back from with my fandom intact.
 
It was Dom

Everything above is weighted almost the same as before. Individual metrics carry the same weight and the ratio between individual and on-ice impact also stays the same. But the ratio of expected to actual goals has changed as actual goals have become more important and predictive as goals per game has increased.
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/43...-defensive-rating/?source=user_shared_articleIntroducing the ‘new’ NHL stats fans should know: Offensive and Defensive Rating
 
zeke said:
It's fucking stupid. Nothing to do with expected goals.

Mo is +1 at evens this year but has been on for a shitload of empty net goals.

It's a dumb stat.
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Well he wasnt +1 at evens 3 weeks ago which is the point I was making.
 
Also +/- isn’t fucking useless it’s just not that helpful.

But it still does show you outliers and comparative data.
 
mbow30 said:
Also +/- isn’t fucking useless it’s just not that helpful.

But it still does show you outliers and comparative data.
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That's exactly what it doesn’t do - it doesn’t give you an apples to apples comparison. Not even close.
 
If the following things are true, then it’s explains a lot about the Leafs:

1. Berube's teams reliably outperform xG, and
2. GF% is the most predictive metric in a high scoring league.

They are 6th in 5v5 GF%, and have been up there all year, which on its face seems unsustainable. Though they are also 6th in 5v5 PDO.
 
I don’t think xgf distinguishes between a shot from location x by a defenceman trying to get a shot through vs a screened shot from the same location vs a shot from the same location on a 3 on 2 vs a shot from the same location on a bad rebound vs a shot from the same location following a cross ice pass.

The law of averages deals with that to some extent but not entirely.
 
This is where the evolving-hockey.com xg model was at a few years ago with inputs. They've probably updated since. Other models like NST are simpler.

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