• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

GDT | Game 74 | vs Florida | Tuesday, April Fools' Day | 7:00 PM EDT

lecoqsportif said:
One of the worst contracts in the NHL, right?

View attachment 25504
Click to expand...

I hate defending Dom but context is important. It was also at the end of our worst season. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3435602/2022/07/26/nhl-worst-contracts-2022/

Personally, I’m excited to see how wrong this one is.

I’m reporting it how the model spits it out now, and as you’ve read — the best framing for each of these players is one born out of optimism. Nick Suzuki deserves the most optimism given his age and previous trajectory. His comps make that even rosier, pushing his positive value probability from 24 percent to 35 percent (inclusion on this list is based on the former number).


Signing a young player one year out from restricted free agency is usually a way to reduce risk. For Montreal, seeing Suzuki play like a borderline top-line center at such a young age was enough to lock him in long-term at just under $8 million. It was a touch rich at the time, but a deal he could grow into.

Suzuki can still do that — the expectation is only a two-win player — but the hill got steeper after a trying season with Montreal, one where he was thrust to the top of the lineup. Perhaps it would’ve been prudent to see if it was a role he could handle first before making a big commitment because that’s now the biggest question mark.

The upside is still there for Suzuki and using comps helps make his trajectory look more promising (Ryan O’Reilly, Elias Lindholm, and Bo Horvat are standouts). Still, there are also less promising comps than there have been when he signed (Alex Galchenyuk, Mikkel Boedker, Jonathan Drouin). What once felt like a near guarantee, now feels like a reasonable question: can Suzuki be a true top-line pivot? There’s more downside than initially intended and that’s the reason he lands on this list.

Part of that is the overall Montreal Stink likely dragging him down. Perhaps the team effects are too strong here, but it was still a team he was part of. A big bounce-back is needed in 2022-23 and one reason to feel like it will come is his play under Martin St. Louis. Coaching matters and Suzuki was a changed man under new tutelage, looking back on track to where he was at the end of 2021.

Consider this a warning sign more than Suzuki actually belonging. The model spits out this result because Suzuki is not currently an $8 million player. He’s not close either and there’s a lot more risk now with his deal. With the deal being eight years long, the yearly negative surplus also compounds.

With that being said, it would be an absolute shock to see him anywhere close to this list next season. He’s a talent worth betting on, even if the odds lowered after last season.
Click to expand...
 
  • Like
Reactions: CH1
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top