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GDT: Habs @ New and Improved Leafs

Neurospasm said:
I will say one thing. The way our team is designed is top heavy in $$$ spent so you should expect more from the top compared to the bottom. Most other teams I believe are spending more in their bottom 6 and should be expecting better results vs a team spending less there.
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They're outscoring their opposition 2 to 1 in the last three playoffs while your bottom is getting bottomed. I would say they already are doing the "more" that's expected.


Perhaps expectations are unrealistic?
 
Neurospasm said:
I will say one thing. The way our team is designed is top heavy in $$$ spent so you should expect more from the top compared to the bottom. Most other teams I believe are spending more in their bottom 6 and should be expecting better results vs a team spending less there.
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Yeah, that's fair. Though I think the numbers I've shown above show that the big boys have earned their money for the most part and the depth has been completely missing in action. I mean, Corey Perry was making 750K when he played for Montreal. Armia 3.4 million. Nordstrom 1.0, etc, etc.

If we were getting dicked down by the player type we're actually missing in our lineup, the ~5 million dollar middle 6' type, I'd consider this a bit more. But the guys beating us are the 1-3 million dollar bottom 6 types, and that's what we're rolling out in the bottom of our lineup too.
 
Habsy said:
They're outscoring their opposition 2 to 1 in the last three playoffs while you're bottom is getting bottomed. I would say they already are doing the "more" that's expected.


Perhaps expectations are unrealistic?
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Oh I don't agree with LoF's point on this, I'm just saying that in general if you're paying $X more than someone else on your top 6 you need to be getting that much more value, the opposite would stand true with the Leafs bottom 6.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah, that's fair. Though I think the numbers I've shown above show that the big boys have earned their money for the most part and the depth has been completely missing in action. I mean, Corey Perry was making 750K when he played for Montreal. Armia 3.4 million. Nordstrom 1.0, etc, etc.

If we were getting dicked down by the player type we're actually missing in our lineup, the ~5 million dollar middle 6' type, I'd consider this a bit more. But the guys beating us are the 1-3 million dollar bottom 6 types, and that's what we're rolling out in the bottom of our lineup too.
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I haven't done a deep dive into the contracts of the other teams but I do think that our bottom 6 is providing less overall value than the top 6.
 
It's pretty indisputable when looking at the past two years that the bottom six didn't do their jobs.

So I would rather have my "overpaid" stars out score the opponents stars 2 to 1 for their salaries as opposed to paying even a million for absolutely nothing. You basically pay for a breather for your stars and hope you don't get scored on.

You guys got scored on.
 
the good news is that with a couple extra forward improvements, that will leave easier assignments to people pushed down the lineup, and they should excel and chip in on our bottom 2 lines.
 
Blueman said:
the good news is that with a couple extra forward improvements, that will leave easier assignments to people pushed down the lineup, and they should excel and chip in on our bottom 2 lines.
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Oh you're going deep this year if your bakery can stay closed. I said it again preseason, your goaltending is still suspect.
 
Neurospasm said:
I haven't done a deep dive into the contracts of the other teams but I do think that our bottom 6 is providing less overall value than the top 6.
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Per dollar, yeah absolutely.

I'm sensitive to the overall point, I'm really not afraid to call out the top group when I think they've sucked (Marner/Matthews vs Montreal, Marner vs Columbus, Tavares against Columbus, Nylander against Boston) but when I look at the performance of other top groups I see a lot of the same patterns. A few of them stud out in some series and disappear in others but when you judge their "core" overall as a group they're generally pretty fucking good because studs. What I don't see a lot of from good teams is the depth go completely fucking awol for entire series like ours does habitually.
 
MindzEye said:
Which you conveniently change to "game 7" when cornered with evidence, every fucking time this conversation happens. Moving goalposts. "Game 7" and "elimination game" are not interchangeable terms bud.

You get on this whole elimination games bit "I don't care what happens to get them there" shit, but trust me if they were getting outed in 5 you would have a fucking seizure blaming them for not getting us to the "games that matter".

This granular bullshit is literally missing the forest for the sake of the trees. Our best players have been good to very good overall in the playoffs for the last few years, with a few exceptions. They have regularly outplayed the opposition best players and against quasi dynasty tampa, out scored their best by a fuckton in a 7 game series. When this happens and we still lose, the problem isn't them. It's the passengers.
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I don't. You're just obsessing over Game 6 because that was one of the rare times they actually did something late in a series.

2017 Caps:
Game 6 - Lost 2-1 in OT (Matty 1G, Willy 1A).
Game 7 - Lost 2-1 in OT (Matty 1G).

2018 Boston:
Game 6 - WON 3-1 (Marner 2 points, Nylander 1G - Matty zero)
Game 7 - Lost 7-4 (Got goals from depth only, with just Marner 2A and Willy 1A - Matty zero).

2019 Boston (up 3-2 in the series with two chances to close out)
Game 6 - Lost 4-2 (Matty 1G, Willy 1A).
Game 7 - Lost 5-1 (Tavares 1G, the rest got nothing).

2020 Columbus (a 5 game series, so really shouldn't even be kind enough to mention two games here, but so be it).
Game 4 - WON 4-3 in OT (famous comeback game scoring the last few minutes - Matty/Marner 3 points, Tavares/Willy 2 points).
Game 5 - Lost 3-0 (pure embarrassment).

2021 Montreal (lost THREE straight close-out games)
Game 5 - Lost 4-3 in OT (Willy 2A, Matty/Marner 1A - no goals).
Game 6 - Lost 3-2 in OT (zero points for the Core 3 missing Tavares).
Game 7 - Lost 3-1 (Nylander 1G, Matty 1A).

2022 TB (lost two straight close out games)
Game 6 - Lost 4-3 in OT (Tavares 2G, Willy 2A, Matty 1G).
Game 7 - Lost 2-1 (Marner/Matthews 1A).

Record in the final two games of all Matty era playoff series: 2-11. In those 13 games, the Core 4 scored 13 goals between them (JT not there for the first two years). So, 1 goal per game combined from our best 3, and then our best 4, players, in the games we need them most.

Take out that one silly covid Game 4 against Columbus and it's 1-11 with 10 goals between them in six first rounds' worth of elimination/clinching games.

Just the last two playoffs, without going back into ancient rosters at this point? 0-5, with 4 goals combined between 4 guys. We lost EVERY SINGLE ONE by just one goal, when our trademark is our high octane offense. I'm not waiting on Kampf to be the hero, and it's not fair to expect the guys who don't regularly score and aren't paid to do it, to Chris Paul your way to victory. You have to have your best guys step up and be the best guys in those games, and they haven't been, irrespective of whether their counterparts like Kucherov and Marchand weren't either. Playoffs isn't about whose 4th line is better, and if it comes down to that, your first line failed you.
 
Another thing to notice - in those last 5 elimination games:

Nylander - 1G 4A = 5 points
Matty - 1G 3A = 4 points
Tavares - DNP + 2G in two games = 2 points
Marner - 0G, 2A = 2 points

Not okay.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
You're just obsessing over Game 6
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Except I'm not. I'm not obsessed about performance in any one particular game or game type. That's part of the point. You're the one creating weird rules about which games matter and which don't. I'm of the opinion that every playoff game matters a lot. Down 2-0? Game 3 may as well be an elimination game. Tied at 2? 80% of the time in that scenario the winner of game 5 wins the series...damn near an elimination game. That you have to get weirdly granular and ignore all sorts of examples that run contrary to your argument underlines the weakness is this silly bullshit you continue to push.
 
Oh come on. I regret spending the time to look back and type all that stuff out, even more than while I was doing it.

Game 6 and 7 have generally proven to be our downfall. There's no value in trying see what happened for us to get up to and past Game 5. We've been very good at that. The exercise is to determine why we can't go further. And for that, you can just look a couple of posts above.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Oh come on. I regret spending the time to look back and type all that stuff out, even more than while I was doing it.
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I would too, it's useless analysis. It functions under the flawed expectation that those 4/5 are supposed to literally do everything. It doesn't show performance relative to competition, or address whether and when those performances are at an expected level. I mean, if you look close you're actually writing my argument for me. Where in there do you see anyone other than our big 4/5 doing sweet fuck all?
 
Even if the other players are complete and utter no-shows, why do the top guys sputter out coincidentally every time we have a chance to clinch? It's a little bit more than just a fluke at this point.

By the way, my argument isn't actually that the Core 4 are bad. No one likes these guys more than I do. But they are the reason why we don't advance, not because our 4th line doesn't step up, but yes, because these four guys are unfortunately not enough (so far). Either they lose gas, choke up, or get focused on too intensely by the opposing team in the final games, but whatever the cause, it's a fact.

But, whereas you think we need to add some third liner, I've always been saying we need to add another top scoring threat - a Core 5th - to bump everyone down one and to give us that badly needed extra guy to fill the net when the season is on the line.

Now, Dubie went and got someone for you (bottom 6) in Acciari, and arguably someone for me (top 6) in ROR, but I wasn't targeting ROR as the guy I would get for these purposes. I can very reliably count on him as 3C, but 2C or 2LW, not super secure. Certainly he's a playoff warrior, and if he does anything like he did last year, then he's as Core 5th as I could hope for. But with the bit of a down season (I know zeke's pointed out that he's done much better after a bad start), and with injuries and speed an issue, I'm not fully confident in relying on him.

So, the answer for me would be to get another guy, whether going for the slam in Meier, or the ground rule double in Garland. Cap and acquisition cost are major impediments though, and I really don't want to lose Knies or the 1st next year, but I sure as hell don't want to lose in the first round again. It's a real conundrum with no right answer. We may already have the roster capable of beating anyone (except the Hawks), or we might be short of scoring yet again - only time will tell. And the question is whether Dubie wants to leave anything to chance, or use every last bullet in the chamber. Tough call.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
why do the top guys sputter out coincidentally every time we have a chance to clinch?
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Except they don't. They didn't choke in game 6 against Tampa, they dominated and came up short because they got no help. They didn't choke in game 4 against Columbus, they gave the team a chance at a game 7.

You get way too hung on on clinch/elimination as if they're fundamentally different than other pressure situations in a playoff series, they're not. The further you drill down into hockey, the more random it gets. The same guys who mounted a crazy comeback and showed massive balls in game 4 against Columbus weren't able to score in game 5 despite putting 17 shots on net as a group. This is why depth scoring is so important, it can't be the same 3-4 guys doing it all the time, this isn't basketball.
 
MindzEye said:
You get way too hung on on clinch/elimination as if they're fundamentally different than other pressure situations in a playoff series, they're not.
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They are. A winner has to overcome and close out the opponent, and not just in the first round. Those finals games are the opportunities in which to do it and we've gone 2-11 or 1-11, whichever you prefer, and a complete zero in Game 7's.

To say that the Core 4 does its job in Games 1-5 and then it's up to Kampf and Kerfoot to close out a Boston or TB because Nick Paul beat us in Game 7 is essentially what you're saying. They take us through Game 5, but they can't stop there, especially when they have two games to close out, which is what they've had three times (and against Montreal, 3 chances).
 
Also, to clarify, I'm not saying that the Core 4 must absolutely deliver in every Game 6 and 7. That's unfair and unrealistic. You absolutely need a Kerf to go nuts and win one game with Engvall and Kampf on his line.

But by the same token, the Core 4 can't be no-shows in almost every Game 6 and 7. And that's what we've had.

By my count, the Core 4 has shown up in 3 out of these 13 games. And lo and behold, we won 2 of them.
 
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