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Fuckin xtrends tho. Bravo. I'm actually impressed. He goes a little extreme and off the walls sometimes, no doubt. BUT BRAVO!!!
 
This does make me believe that maybe just maybe the overall market can avoid the crash that I was thinking may happen. The names that needed to correct are correcting in a bigly way. I thought it would drag the entire market down and maybe they're the canary in the coal mine and it's only a matter of time before we get a complete wipeout. TIME WILL TELL!!!
 
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Think someone was forced to unload their AYR. Had a stinky at 32.22 and it filled (it went down to 30.51 at one point as someone unloaded here more than they should have ever had in this low float stock!!). Looks like it was someone at National Bank that unleashed a huge market sell at the end of the day. That was wild.

And now I'm pretty heavy on AYR. So I'm hoping the sector even half rallies during earnings week next week. Should get some headlines and CNBC hype and I guess I've gotta hope money rotates into the most undervalued name in the sector (albeit with a bit of execution risk).
 
I will say that Verano made up for it. Big move. Ayr will get that soon. She's now quite oversold which always makes me excited.
 
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Wow. I didn't even notice the move in VRNO...I thought my folio was simply reacting to GLD and GDX
 
CH1 said:
What makes the game hard is that feelings change with price action. If you remember back a few months, you were eager to buy ZM if it dipped below 300....and I said, if it dips below 300, you might hesitate and wait for it to go lower.

Well, it was below 300 yesterday. Not singling you out...it's just the nature of the beast.
Click to expand...
Actually I said my plan was to strike if it fell to the $275 level, which it hasn't reached yet. When it hovered at the $315 level, I was thinking about whether to dive in anyway. But you're right, if it is all downward movement and tough sentiment out there, suddenly $275 doesn't seem good either. I was thinking that just yesterday that it looks like it'll get there, but then will I hold out for more.
 
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They become the largest weed company on the planet!!! My buddy has been holding harvest lately because he felt something like this would happen...

Kaboing!!!
 
Early analysis:

Harvest has a lot of issues. They have been barely hanging on with a lack of capital and loads of debt; anyone that was available at this stage was going to have these crippling issues that needed to be cleaned up. They blew their load far too early years ago and kinda ran out of cash. So their CapEx has gone to the sewer this last year or 2 (I was just looking at them in further detail a week or two ago because I was thinking of buying them.. And yeah I noticed they've basically stopped trying to grow). They have been barely hanging on to maintain what they have and as a result their growth has suffered. Weak profitability until oddly enough.. This quarter. They reported earnings this morning and it seems AZ legalization did them quite well. Trulieve paid a steep price but they are now a powerful MSO. This company is worth more to them than it is to Harvest. They can re-invest in them to expand, pay off debt, etc. Execution risk is high with this one.. For once Trulieve can be valued as an MSO with an MSO premium that they never really got. Expensive or not, I think this establishes them as a powerhouse. Lot of work to do!

They are now leaders in Arizona and Florida with a nice presence in PA, MA and Maryland and some miscellaneous operations in California. Next step is acquiring in NJ perhaps.
 
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PS: VFFs tomato business is really taking a fat shit. Their earnings sucked again and it was largely tomato-related. It's crushing them.
 
Shows you the kind of inefficiencies the space still has. $2.1b for Harvest while AYR is currently trading at a $1.9b market cap. I don't think Harvest and Ayr are in the same league as operators ha.
 
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yeah...it seems like HARV was a bit of an overpay but then again it's an all stock deal so TRUL keeps it's cash hoard
 
Yeah, they'll need the cash. Harv has a lot of debt and they'll want to continue to build out both in Florida and elsewhere. If anything they may need more cash.

On an annual sales multiple the deal looks bad and really expensive, but Trulieve can do way more with the assets than Harvest could. It's the assets of being a rec legal AZ that are huge. And Maryland... I think that's the next market that proves to be really strong and profitable. A lot of smarter people than me feel like now is the time to get in there because assets will be cheaper than they'll be in a year or two.

Basically, like AYR, there are execution risks with them now (there always were because we knew they would make a deal like this at some point and it was always going to make or break them) but if they execute even kinda sorta well, this could make them the biggest cannabis company on the planet. Still think they need to expand their footprint to get into an NJ or something but they are on their way. I like it for them.
 
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