• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Hey Nerds: Blockchain

LeafOfFaith said:
I get it, but it’s a question of timing now because there’s apparently no bottom in the near term. Also I do the math on them almost every day. Hmm, if I buy more of X now, how much will it bring down my cost basis. And it’s not much at all unless I add an extra 50% to the position, and which of them do I do that with when all of them look similarly poop? And what if it goes down another 20%, as it would’ve a few times had I done it at various points during the meltdown? If I need to spend a bunch to bring my price on something down from $270 to $260, when it’s $90 right now, it feels like a risk with little reason behind it.

Whenever I start to think about it, the only way it makes sense is to think about it as two people’s portfolios. One is old crushed me who has to just sit on it and suffer till it goes back to $270. The other is current me who can dive in and buy something for $90 and hope it doesn’t drop to $50. But combine those two positions and there’s barely a dent in the cost basis, unless I want to burn up all remaining cash to double down on a few names I’m holding. And each time I’ve considered it on one, I wait and watch it drop down even more and thank the heavens I didn’t buy more.
Click to expand...
No arguments there. Tech, in particular, is correcting in a big way and when your portfolio is heavily tech-centric it's gonna be hard to come back from that in the short-term.

I do think there is value in buying whatever you believe in longterm (for me it's a broad market ETF, for you it might be a tech company) robotically and slowly. Every Tuesday at 9:30am buy just a lil.. whatever it may be 5, 10, 15, 50% of your weekly income, doesn't matter. I know your method has always been to buy big or don't buy at all and while I respect and appreciate the upside that this method can provide, it is much higher risk.
 
Preston said:
No arguments there. Tech, in particular, is correcting in a big way and when your portfolio is heavily tech-centric it's gonna be hard to come back from that in the short-term.

I do think there is value in buying whatever you believe in longterm (for me it's a broad market ETF, for you it might be a tech company) robotically and slowly. Every Tuesday at 9:30am buy just a lil.. whatever it may be 5, 10, 15, 50% of your weekly income, doesn't matter. I know your method has always been to buy big or don't buy at all and while I respect and appreciate the upside that this method can provide, it is much higher risk.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’ve thought about that, and I’ve also thought if I’m going to buy anything, maybe put more into financial or energy or food, things that pay high dividends since the tech stuff barely pays out any cash during the period of suffering. But then I’m looking at those types of companies and they’ve all traded within a range for a long time now, and look like maybe they’ll fall at any moment too.

The whole thing just feels completely uninvestable, which is probably a sentiment shared by the masses since everything is being driven down weekly.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Yeah, I’ve thought about that, and I’ve also thought if I’m going to buy anything, maybe put more into financial or energy or food, things that pay high dividends since the tech stuff barely pays out any cash during the period of suffering. But then I’m looking at those types of companies and they’ve all traded within a range for a long time now, and look like maybe they’ll fall at any moment too.

The whole thing just feels completely uninvestable, which is probably a sentiment shared by the masses since everything is being driven down weekly.
Click to expand...
See this is how I felt in 2021. I'm slowly starting to come around to the other side on that though. Slowly. Not sure I'm fully there yet.
 
Preston said:
See this is how I felt in 2021. I'm slowly starting to come around to the other side on that though. Slowly. Not sure I'm fully there yet.
Click to expand...
I literally haven’t sold one thing or put any new cash in throughout 2022 so far. I will probably be doing so shortly as I need to fund the 401k and IRA before year end, but even that I might just leave in cash in those accounts and wait out the year.
 
I don’t know what my partner actually does or doesn’t do, but whenever we talk about it, which is rare because I try not to get into it or dwell on it, he’s always like, yeah, I’m down, but who cares, I don’t look, I don’t check, maybe once every six months, etc. He’s very financially savvy so not sure I believe him, but at least he’s espousing the right attitude and mindset for this thing. I’m acting it out the same way, but definitely it’s something I check on daily at least once and I don’t have the who cares about it approach.
 
Preston said:
Plenty of fundamental reasons as CH1 points out and then there's the basic economic life cycle of emotions/psychology. This is a pattern throughout history. We aren't immune to it because it's 2021.
Click to expand...
The era of cheap capital in 2020 and 2021 was unprecedented and not reflective of any sort of sustainable reality at all. The warning signs were there. I have little memory of this fun lil debate with zeke but the point stands. Not claiming I predicted the timing or anything... I had puts and went heavy cash and positioned myself in case something like this happened, but my timing was off and didn't make nearly as much off it as I could have.. But I mean it was staring us right in the face. The GME era, NFT era, cryto bubble era, cash burning tech stocks going irrationally parabolic that grew due to cheap capital, etc. were all very very good hints that spooked the fuck out of me.
 
Last edited:
LeafOfFaith said:
I don’t know what my partner actually does or doesn’t do, but whenever we talk about it, which is rare because I try not to get into it or dwell on it, he’s always like, yeah, I’m down, but who cares, I don’t look, I don’t check, maybe once every six months, etc. He’s very financially savvy so not sure I believe him, but at least he’s espousing the right attitude and mindset for this thing. I’m acting it out the same way, but definitely it’s something I check on daily at least once and I don’t have the who cares about it approach.
Click to expand...
If you're investing in individual companies it's a bit difficult to have that attitude because you do genuinely have to keep up with shit and rebalance occasionally. But if your partner just has indexes then he has the right approach for sure. Buy and forget.
 
Preston said:
If you're investing in individual companies it's a bit difficult to have that attitude because you do genuinely have to keep up with shit and rebalance occasionally. But if your partner just has indexes then he has the right approach for sure. Buy and forget.
Click to expand...
Good point. I think he does do that, so you’re probably right. I know he gambles on individual ones here and there, but the indexes are his preferred too. I’ve just never been a fan of buying something faceless that has good and bad within it, and always prefer to make the specific picks of good companies I like. By the way, I still like all of the names I’m holding, as crushed as they may be. Just wish I’d been obsessed with safe dividend stocks instead of tech.
 
Having conviction is good if you're in the right names. The bounce on some of those tech names is going to be fantastic, whenever the bottom is actually set.
 
Preston said:
Having conviction is good if you're in the right names. The bounce on some of those tech names is going to be fantastic, whenever the bottom is actually set.
Click to expand...
Eh, it’ll be a while. I fantasize a little here and there, if I could just take one peek at my holdings 3 years from now and see if there’s nothing to worry about because buy and hold works…
 
like Presto said buy and hold doesn't work with individual stocks

today's winners are very often tomorrow's losers....just go back 20 years and you see massive changes in the market cap leader board


the beauty of SPY is that it self edits and kicks out the duds


Screen Shot 2022-11-09 at 12.50.11 PM.png
 
LeafOfFaith said:
What did you end up doing with yours, by the way? Did you cash out or hold on to some extent?
Click to expand...

I cashed out...but not completely. I have etfs like
SPLV (low volatility S&P ETF)
QQQ (technology)
ICF (composite of REITs)
VCIT (intermediate term corporate bonds)

I barely look at my long term holdings. I even added to some of my potstock losers (that's working out ok).
 
I had a bunch invested in FDN, which is another tech-heavy stock index. It's riding a 52-week low, so yeah, that's wrecked havoc on my portfolio. I'm sure it will rebound sometime down the road, but yeah, this year has not been pretty
 
CH1 said:
I cashed out...but not completely. I have etfs like
SPLV (low volatility S&P ETF)
QQQ (technology)
ICF (composite of REITs)
VCIT (intermediate term corporate bonds)

I barely look at my long term holdings. I even added to some of my potstock losers (that's working out ok).
Click to expand...
You mean you cashed out of short term stuff, but have taken the nosedive on the long term stuff?
 
The market's impact on my work psychology is funny though.

When it's flying, I'm like why am I wasting my time working? When it's crashing, I'm like why am I wasting my time working?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top