Hey Nerds: Blockchain

[Hoglund14]

I woke up to a bag of text messages on the morning that Sessions yanked the Cole Memo from panicked friends invested in the industry, and when I checked my portfolio, was down about 350K from the previous nights close.

That type of volatility isn't for everyone.

Yeah.. I'll stick with my 5%...

 

[MindzEye]

As far as MJ allocations, what are your thoughts on going with:

WEED: 45%
APH: 25%
HVST: 30%

Thinking of starting with that and letting it roll without any rebalancing.

Gives me some big boy coverage with an emerging potential powerhouse on the side.

Yeah, Aphria gets you some US/Australia exposure. WEED gets you German exposure and HVST is definitely the favoured small producer right now. WEED and APH bouncing back hard today after a big sell off last week is encouraging.

That's a good starter allocation imo and I like that you avoided ACB (so much bad paper...so much. I know CH1 did extremely well on them, I just like them the least mid to long term).

 

[Hoglund14]

Yeah, Aphria gets you some US/Australia exposure. WEED gets you German exposure and HVST is definitely the favoured small producer right now. WEED and APH bouncing back hard today after a big sell off last week is encouraging.

That's a good starter allocation imo and I like that you avoided ACB (so much bad paper...so much. I know CH1 did extremely well on them, I just like them the least mid to long term).

Yup. Have heard some terrible things about ACB. Going to let her roll with that.

 

[CH1]

My 2 cents:

I generally love ETFs, but the weed ones are garbage. With a little research, you can create a superior list and save on management fees. It's a ton of fun. It's a better version of fantasy football with real skin in the game.

ME's list is great. From it, I own TNY, CRZ, FFT, RTI, AC8. I also own MPX, LG, QCC (all Canadian stocks that have held pretty well during the recent downturn)
My only big player is LEAF.

I'm not as balls deep into the sector as ME. Only 20% of my folio, but the sector's outsized gains (especially in NOV/DEC) gave my entire account a 75% return in 17.

Like ME said, I think this is a an unprecedented investment opportunity. It's roughly a 300 Billion market going online one market at a time. But beware, bouts of euphoria will correct by swift selling. Nothing goes straight up -- Amazon (the 3rd largest public co. in the world) suffered a 75% haircut in 2000.

Back to pot, I started nibbling in Australia -- their valuations are 1 yr behind their Canadian counterparts.

I also like the medical side. Like one of my fave traders, Todd Harrison, likes to say "Cannabis is not just about getting high, it's also about getting well"

The medical research (constrained by US laws) is encouraging.

I continue to hold GWPH from $48 (now $130) but siphoned some of those profits in some cheapo spec plays -- Inmed (Canada), CNAB and NMUS (USA) and OWCP (Israel).

I am not clairvoyant enough to know which one of those spec plays will find a cure --- but I'm positioned in such a way that I just need one of those to hit --- the rest can all go to zero and I come out way ahead. If they all fail, it won't even matter.

 

[CH1]

Well it sounds like you're monitoring daily and that is a good thing. If your payoff has been that high it could be a bubble. Furthermore, if you're invested in US 420 then Sessions' idiocy may have a negative effect on the growth. I'd like to get into it more but damn, this administration scares me where Pot is concerned.

I love Sessions. He's the wall of worry secular bull markets need.

Half the GOP and most of popular opinion oppose him. He can't win. He can simply provide dips to buy.

 

[MindzEye]

More good news:

A couple ETF's and a MJ based funds are firing up in February apparently

- The people behind HMMJ (the current ETF) are starting a small(er) cap marijuana ETF.
- Eight Capital & Questrade are starting a MJ ETF
- Stonecastle is doing both a fund, and a ETF with the both apparently under the management of Bruce Campbell. For those who don't know, Bruce Campbell is known to love TGIF and have a fairly substantial personal investment in them.

As big a move as the industry has made already, institutional money changes the scope of the game significantly. It's been mostly retail to this point.

 

[MindzEye]

I love Sessions. He's the wall of worry secular bull markets need.

Half the GOP and most of popular opinion oppose him. He can't win. He can simply provide dips to buy.

Which is awesome if you're in a cash position and not standing here with your chips in the centre of the table already.

**** that midget ****.

 

[Iknowenuff]

Sessions opened his mouth a couple weeks ago, and scared the **** out of the industry, we saw a bloodbath in the MJ markets for a day. Then a return to gains. The general sentiment is that he can't do what he wants to do and has no power to change it. It's actually been encouraging from an investors standpoint, it was the thing anyone invested in US MJ was afraid of and the reaction of the companies involved and the market overall after the initial panic was "meh, **** that guy, he ain't doing shit"

As for it being a bubble...sure, it could be. But I think it's more instructive to look at it another way. The only historic analogue we have for this is the end of prohibition and a pile of massive companies ended up birthed out of that. If you could have bought into the alcohol industry at the beginning of 1934, I imagine you would have done pretty well. Are there some over valued companies with goofy forward P/E's? Yeah absolutely but I guess it depends on when you got in. I made my first CGC purchase at 1.70. It's trading at 35.40 right now. Would I feel comfortable banging a bunch of money in at 35.40? No. Will I continue to hold what I have though (which is almost entirely gains). Yeah.

It's a brand new industry built from nothing with a more or less guaranteed chunk of revenue in the 10-20B range in Canada and the 20-25B+ range in California. Find the winners, ride them.

That is a great post.

 

[Hoglund14]

Day 2 of weed stock ownership and I'm still not suicidal. I bought APH and HVST a little too late unfortunately and lost some of the profits from the day (stupid work meeting). But overall it won't make much of an impact. Still keeping somewhat sane.

The real test will be during a 10+% loss day. Eek I'll be a bitch ass nigga with that

 

[MindzEye]

Day 2 of weed stock ownership and I'm still not suicidal. I bought APH and HVST a little too late unfortunately and lost some of the profits from the day (stupid work meeting). But overall it won't make much of an impact. Still keeping somewhat sane.

The real test will be during a 10+% loss day. Eek I'll be a bitch ass nigga with that

Just breathe man, you've invested in the two companies best positioned to become international powerhouses in a 12 figure industry that doesn't exist yet and a smaller player that is a prime acquisition target when the M&A phase of the industry really kicks off within the next 12-18 months.

The ride might be bumpy at times, but it'll pay.

 

[CH1]

Which is awesome if you're in a cash position and not standing here with your chips in the centre of the table already.

**** that midget ****.

I wouldn't worry about Sessions. Pot seems to be one thorny issue where both parties agree.

GOP & Democratic Governor Candidates Agree: Legalize Marijuana


Take, for example, the candidates for governor from both major parties who held press conferences to discuss ending cannabis prohibition in the past week.

On Monday, New York Republican gubernatorial hopeful Joel Giambra unveiled a proposal to legalize marijuana and use the resulting tax revenue to fund subway repairs and other transportation projects.

"I think that legalizing marijuana and using the revenues to create an infrastructure fund to deal with these problems is a much more appropriate way to solve our problems than raising new taxes," he said.

And in Illinois, Democrat JB Pritzker spoke about the benefits of ending cannabis criminalization and taxing its sales before an assembled group of reporters on Friday.

"Criminalizing marijuana hasn’t made our communities safer. What it’s done is disproportionately impact black and brown communities," he said. "The criminalization of cannabis never has been and never will be enforced fairly, and it’s time to bring that to an end."

The two candidates' vocal support for legalization highlights how marijuana is poised to play a more prominent role in many of the nation's 36 races for state governorships this year.

Democratic and GOP Candidates in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Wisconsin and other states have all backed some form of marijuana law reform, ranging from full legalization to allowing medical cannabis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/2018/01/16/gop-democratic-governor-candidates-agree-legalize-marijuana/#7a93a1db318e

 

[MindzEye]

Oh, I'm not worried long term at all. I know he's toothless here, and I know there was going to be a pullback at some point regardless in that time period, he were running hot as hell all week before he opened his mouth and that can't continue for long before a correction. I just don't think it would have been as rough a pull back, and we would have been back to business as usual pretty quickly after a bit of consolidation. The better US small/nano cap stocks have all been slow to recover. TNY was moving into 2.00 territory and is still trading around 1.40 now, TGIF was in the 1.40 range and is bouncing around a buck now, Liberty Health is down ~30%, etc, etc.

 

[Iknowenuff]

We had a Sessions type anomaly in 2014 as well. Different type though. Just presented a tremendous buy on a severe dip opportunity. I have to think that there is already an understanding in place overall, that Marijuana will be legalized throughout North America.

To max out every dollar along the way, there will appear to be ups and downs and possible no go's, but for me, MJ is over the medium and long term a full ahead go. Makes too much "cents".

 

[UWHabs]

In Crypto news, Bitcoin is down a little bit from where it was a month ago... How far will it go?

 

[zeke]

 

[MindzEye]

In Crypto news, Bitcoin is down a little bit from where it was a month ago... How far will it go?

I think it's a small enough market (it really does get a massively outsized amount of attention considering it's market cap...170B? Visa alone is worth 30B more than the entire Bitcoin network and you don't hear shit about Visa if you don't follow the markets pretty close) with enough entrenched early adopters who are now multi millionaires that it will stabilize somewhere in the 7-10K range or higher. There are a lot of true believers who still think this is going to 100K+ and will be strong holders. That base of multi millionaire strong holds will create a decent enough price floor that will calm the market and allow for the skittish retail investors (who don't really understand bitcoin or crypto at all) to feel comfortable to re-enter. This panic sell is the retail investor pulling out hard, it makes sense for the price to fall back down to where it was before the hype pushed retail money into bitcoin.

 

[MindzEye]

We had a Sessions type anomaly in 2014 as well. Different type though. Just presented a tremendous buy on a severe dip opportunity. I have to think that there is already an understanding in place overall, that Marijuana will be legalized throughout North America.

To max out every dollar along the way, there will appear to be ups and downs and possible no go's, but for me, MJ is over the medium and long term a full ahead go. Makes too much "cents".

It's literally a historic opportunity. Everyone I know on the MJ investing forums I go to who has been in it as long as I have (or longer) has seen 300-400% increase in net worth or more. A lot of early retirements, a lot of newly minted millionaires and the industry hasn't even really started yet. Anyone so inclined to follow the industry close with the ability to do decent due diligence and the patience to ride some of these companies to the finish line should be able to do double or triple digit returns for the next handful of years. A lot of people can't stomache the draw downs though. You have to be willing to accept the 15-20% haircuts in a day or multiple days of 8-10% pull backs.

 

[MindzEye]

and here's a bit of substantiation of what I'm saying:

https://coindelite.com/news/japans-largest-bank-will-be-launching-its-own-cryptocurrency-exchange/

Japan’s Largest Bank will be Launching its own Cryptocurrency Exchange

Since Bitcoin trading becomes the new mainstream in Japan, the top financial firms are stepping in to offer services to preserve their market share. MUFG, the largest bank in Japan, has planned to introduce its own exchange, a secured cryptocurrency, and bitcoin separated accounts which can be used by clients of other exchanges.

Bitcoin has gotten this big on nerds and potentially delusional retail hype alone. We're just starting to see the first moves of the big boys into crypto.

 

[CH1]

It's literally a historic opportunity. Everyone I know on the MJ investing forums I go to who has been in it as long as I have (or longer) has seen 300-400% increase in net worth or more. A lot of early retirements, a lot of newly minted millionaires and the industry hasn't even really started yet. Anyone so inclined to follow the industry close with the ability to do decent due diligence and the patience to ride some of these companies to the finish line should be able to do double or triple digit returns for the next handful of years. A lot of people can't stomache the draw downs though. You have to be willing to accept the 15-20% haircuts in a day or multiple days of 8-10% pull backs.

 

[MindzEye]

That's one sexy looking 5 billion dollar draw down at the beginning of January. The Sessions Draw down, we should probably call it.

BMO just underwrote Canopy's new 175 million dollar bought deal, the first major bank to get involved like this. Massive validation for the industry. As big as the Constellation deal in a lot of ways.