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MindzEye said:
but all the manias, happening all at once?
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the internet has given us more options....17th century in Holland. you were hoping that some asshole would buy your tulips the next day for more than you paid....now, on my phone, I can flip crypto or Siakam Dunks as easily as I can trade gold futures
 
CH1 said:
yeah...the dotcom crash involved a bunch of stupid companies with no business model....and some like Amazon that were too early...

today's tech companies print money (for the most part) but their valuations are on the aggressive side

ultimately, I see it as a supply/demand issue. and I'm seeing a TON OF SUPPLY at the moment....secondaries, spacs, ipos, alt asset classes, etc
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Yes, exactly, and not everything is going to be a long term winner. The trick is trying to pick the ones that are going to be and sticking with them. Lots of these plays will crash and burn, but because they deserve to, on an independent basis. I just don't see some cataclysmic event in the cards pulling the rug out from under the best companies. But that's the thing with cataclysmic events - you don't see them coming. The other thing is, they don't come very often.
 
Certainly a valid thesis could be that all we need is a 15-25% correction fundamentally speaking. But when there's fear in the air and when the charts don't have much support on the way down, that can quickly get a lot worse.

As much as euphoria results in unreasonable valuations, so does despair. Valuations don't make sense to me right now and they did not make sense to me on many companies back in March. Sentiment shifts are all part of a healthy economic cycle. We will absolutely have 20+% broad market dumps again and again and again as we have throughout history and everything will be dragged down with it. Everything. It doesn't have to make "sense" to any of us. It's natural and it's healthy.
 
Preston said:
Yes business is good, yes growth is great, but I think the market is blowing their load far too much right now in terms of how these companies are valued as is usually the case in any healthy economic cycle. Euphoria is fun but it doesn't often end well. But it could last a lot longer than this too!
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exactly...all markets are about stretching the limits (on both the upside and downside). Nobody is worried about paying too much for TSLA or their semi detached in Leslieville if recent history has shown them that they can sell whatever they buy for a profit down the line.

you keep pressing and pressing...it's your job to squeeze the max amount of profit...and then one day there's very few people left to buy what you own

it works on the downside too...the SPX was under 700 in 2009. It was priced as if capitalism was dead....
 
CH1 said:
exactly...all markets are about stretching the limits (on both the upside and downside). Nobody is worried about paying too much for TSLA or their semi detached in Leslieville if recent history has shown them that they can sell whatever they buy for a profit down the line.

you keep pressing and pressing...it's your job to squeeze the max amount of profit...and then one day there's very few people left to buy what you own
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And this is the perfect environment to stretch that euphoria between interests rates, stimmies fired off, a flow of good news about reopening that we've been pricing in for almost 8 months and successful tech companies continuing to grow.

Eventually... And I don't know when that is... We're going to have a rough ride again. I fear that the higher we stretch this the more we'll end up dropping because things are getting a bit out of hand.
 
CH1 said:
it works on the downside too...the SPX was under 700 in 2009. It was priced as if capitalism was dead....
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That was the kind of crash that made it possible to have a sustainable 10 year bull run with only a few short hiccups along the way.

We could kinda use that again
 
Preston said:
Eventually... And I don't know when that is... We're going to have a rough ride again. I fear that the higher we stretch this the more we'll end up dropping because things are getting a bit out of hand.
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Like you mentioned earlier, the more sustainable option involves the regular 3-5% correction brought on by hiccups like TRADE WAR, A BAD JOBS REPORT, FED SPEAK, etc

When things are "too good" that's when I worry because nothing bad is priced in, just the good stuff
 
CH1 said:
Like you mentioned earlier, the more sustainable option involves the regular 3-5% correction brought on by hiccups like TRADE WAR, A BAD JOBS REPORT, FED SPEAK, etc

When things are "too good" that's when I worry because nothing bad is priced in, just the good stuff
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This is what has made me grossly uncomfortable for basically all of 2021 so far. I hate euphoria almost as much as despair.
 
I wonder if an argument could be made that over time, investors learn their lesson.

Like, if the tech darlings were like the dot com faves of 20 years ago, would the masses be diving in or would they recognize the danger and proceed with caution? I feel like there has been quite a bit of learning that might allow the market to detour without crashing to the bottom.

But if a financial crisis comes out of nowhere, where no one is looking at credit default swaps and Lehman goes down, and then you have big companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, yeah, that I expect will deliver a huge blow. But how likely is it that we have another of those? And how affected would today's darlings be? The tech companies and online business/sales somewhat insulates them from things that previously would've rocked them. A pandemic that forced people to stay home resulted in record profits for tech. Go figure. If you can do business from anywhere irrespective of what's going on in the world, you're kinda golden.

The only obstacle would be people not having enough money to buy your products. And automation that is causing people to slowly get phased out of work might be the biggest risk in that regard.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I wonder if an argument could be made that over time, investors learn their lesson.

Like, if the tech darlings were like the dot com faves of 20 years ago, would the masses be diving in or would they recognize the danger and proceed with caution? I feel like there has been quite a bit of learning that might allow the market to detour without crashing to the bottom.

But if a financial crisis comes out of nowhere, where no one is looking at credit default swaps and Lehman goes down, and then you have big companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, yeah, that I expect will deliver a huge blow. But how likely is it that we have another of those? And how affected would today's darlings be? The tech companies and online business/sales somewhat insulates them from things that previously would've rocked them. A pandemic that forced people to stay home resulted in record profits for tech. Go figure. If you can do business from anywhere irrespective of what's going on in the world, you're kinda golden.

The only obstacle would be people not having enough money to buy your products. And automation that is causing people to slowly get phased out of work might be the biggest risk in that regard.
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That's how she goes in euphoric times. Everything seems perfect and the majority of folks have the "this time is different" mentality and truly believe that they are invincible and their stocks will continue to go up incrementally for eternity. That's what makes it so hard mentally. And then stocks tank 20, 30% and those same euphoric folks who are buying at these levels are too fearful to buy at a 20-30% discount. It's all one big natural economic cycle based entirely on the psychology of sentiment of greed and fear and I don't think that will change. Fundamentals are only one small part of the equation. Everything will tank and the quickest risers will be the value names.. .That's why it's important to go value hunting during the down times. And then usually near the end of a major bull run we get what we see today; every piece of shit popping to out of control valuations because there is nothing else to buy at this stage.


As for me... I'd love to see us get out of this broad market equilibrium ahead and break bullish on the way to 400+ on SPY. That's a perfectly realistic goal IMO. The fun doesn't have to stop anytime soon so enjoy it while it's here! But also understand that this past year is almost a once in a lifetime kind of thing and will not last forever.
 
www.businesswire.com

Columbia Care Reports Record Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Results; Issues 2021 Guidance

Columbia Care Inc. (NEO: CCHW) (CSE: CCHW) (OTCQX: CCHWF) (FSE: 3LP) (“Columbia Care” or the “Company”) is providing preliminary results for the fourth quart...
www.businesswire.com



Mother fucking Boom. This kind of profitability improvement is what I like to see. Inching closer towards the other big boys as we know their revenue is going to continue to grow substantially.

Gross margins:
Q2 2020: 36%
Q3 2020: 39%
Q4 2020: 41.5%
2021 guidance: 47%+

Still not quite up to the big boys but they're on the right path. As I suspected they are extremely undervalued here compared to peers. Extremely.
 
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Revenues yoy:

2019: $79
2020: $198 million
2021 guidance: $500 - $530 million

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Finally got my puts while SPY was at HOD. Makes me feel more comfortable not going crazy on selling MJ.


If SPY really does eventually blast to 400+ (entirely possible, if not likely) I will add.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I mean the percentage jumps in yearly revenues.
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2019: 62.5m
2020: 216m
2021: 550ish milly (TBC)
2022: I'm guessing around 1 billy

Obviously it's a lot easier for a crazy percentage increase on 62.5m compared to 550 milly so I do expect the growth to "slow" percentage-wise for all names.
 
went long QQQ calls for a snapback...already out for a day's pay.

Also bot ETSY calls (same idea) still holding them...stop at break even
 
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