to me, pressing for lecavalier is a no brainer, whether it nets the team the 3rd pick (which i'm highly skeptical of) or not (i still think that you could get a nice asset in exchange for taking on lecavalier). first, yes, his contract is big and it runs for a long time but let's remember a few important things...
(1) the cap has only gone up and is expected to continue to do so. by the end of the current cba (which expires around the same time as lecavalier's deal) the cap has been projected to go as high as $90mn. a $7.7mn salary under a $90mn cap (8.5%) is about the equivalent of a $5.5 salary under the 2013-14 cap (which is subject to an artificial decline by the terms of the cba). the salary is a bit high right now but projects to be a second line salary in the latter years of the deal, based on an expected inflationary cap.
(2) as the PA suggested would happen, a reorientation of salary now looks inevitable. we need look no further than the contract malkin just signed. $9.5mn per year. getzlaf just signed for $8.25. the salary for front line players is going to go up -- especially for bona fide first line centres which are hands down the hardest commodity to obtain. $7.7 is by no means a bargain for lecavalier, but it also isn't outrageous and may in fact end up being a slight underpayment.
(3) first line centres are impossible to obtain. they rarely hit the market. and the number of bona fide first line centres seems to be diminishing. maybe i'm wrong but it definitely seems like there are fewer top notch first line centres nowadays.
(4) even in his diminished state lecavalier scores at a high rate for a centre. for instance grabovski was a top 30 scoring centre between 10-11 and 11-12. he outscored lecavalier in both years (in real numbers but not on a pro rata basis). all things being equal, if they're producing at the same rate, would anybody take grabovski over lecavalier? i know i wouldn't
(5) it isn't even clear that he has diminished. his rate of production has remained relatively stable since his spike years in 05-06 and 06-07. over that time he has been relegated to the second line because of stamkos's emergence. he has battled some injuries the past two seasons but was reasonably healthy before that (and in any event, has never missed 20+ games in a season nor has been out when it mattered the most).
not only that but lecavalier is a gamer -- he has proven time and again that he can rise to the occasion in key moments. if we needed proof of that -- just look at his ppg perforamnce in the 2012 playoffs.
the leafs need a first line centre. getting one via th etrade route would almost certainly create a large dent in this roster, or cost rielly. you can wait for free agency but how many of thornton, lecavalier, crosby, malkin, getzlaf, datsyuk, staal (what i would consider the current cadre of first line c's who have hit the age of ufa eligibility) have become unrestricted free agents? and if one does become a ufa, what will the cost be?
lecavalier not only lets you keep the roster in tact, and wouldn't cost a player like rielly, but because of his contract might even return another nice asset to complete a deal. his $7.7mn price tag is also almost certainly less than another first line c would cost on the free agency market (with reference to malkin's and getzlaf's post-cba deals).
and of course, the leafs have a one year grace period with him. say he is brought aboard and either looks diminished or does not click with the current roster -- well, then, buy him out at season's end and he can return happy and well paid for life to the lightning.
it's a no brainer, imo, assuming tbay is in fact looking to trade him and he is willing to come to toronto.
