Very common RFA standoff. Kulemin and his agent are arguing that he's a 1st line winger, and throwing a few names with comparable production out there to argue that he's worth 3+ million, while Burke counters with what was just said and I'm sure he's using production comparables that make ~2 million.
This happens every year to numerous teams. The only threat to the Leafs here is if Kulemin decides to leave for Russia and that isn't overly likely imo. Other than that there are only a handful of likely outcomes
1) July 1 hits, nobody fires an offer sheet Kulemin's way and he accepts Burkes offer on the short term, probably a 2 year 4.5ish deal
2) July 1 hits, an offer sheet is thrown at him within a reasonable amount of time and depending the the compensation offered (which obviously depends on the size of the offer sheet) Burke decides whether to match or take the compensation
3) July 1 hits, no offer sheet, and this turns into a protracted standoff. It's only in this scenario do I see a 1-2 yr deal to Russia becoming more likely.
As I've mentioned previously, Kulemin isn't in the same position that a player like Kovalchuk is in, where he can take more money in Russia and still come back to the NHL in 2-3 years to a King's Ransom of a contract. If Kulemin leaves for more money in Russia, he comes back under our control at the same offer level from us (or if his right are traded) by whomever owns his rights. The only way for him to get the money he thinks he's worth at the NHL level is to earn it in this next contract period.
Go out and score 50-60 goals over the next 2 seasons combined and now you're looking at 4+ million dollar contract offers.
