• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

Leaf Rumours

I don't mind the Shea Weber choice. He's big, strong, skates very well, has a cannon and plays a solid two way game.

My list would probably start with Doughty, but Weber would definitely be in the top 5 if not #2. I think Bogosian will probably be a better player than Weber, but seeing as Weber is more proven he might get the edge.
 
MindzEye said:
It makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit that Paul Martin would have been our Tomas Kaberle replacement if Burke had his way there.

and for about the same money that a Kaberle extension would cost.
Click to expand...

i'd be fine with martin as kaberle's replacement. but i thought he would get undervalued and maybe get something in the $3mn range. i'd be fine with that. the $5mn he got (which is what the leafs apparently offered as well) is ludicrous, though.
 
msun30 said:
i'd be fine with martin as kaberle's replacement. but i thought he would get undervalued and maybe get something in the $3mn range. i'd be fine with that. the $5mn he got (which is what the leafs apparently offered as well) is ludicrous, though.
Click to expand...

If we were able to get a legit first line forward for Kabs, I might not have hated it...but Paul Martin is horrifically over rated. Dude has scored more than 33 points once in his 6 season career...that's no more a replacement for Kaberle's offensive abilities than just letting Gunner & Beauch run with the offensive duties would be.

With the lack of defenders available in the market this year, there was never much a chance that he didn't get significantly overpaid.
 
MindzEye said:
If we're dealing in crazy hypotheticals...sure, why not.

But if it turns into Pominville & Ryan for 10 million, or Kaberle for 4.25....
Click to expand...

Where's the crazy hypothetical?

His idea was to try to get a UFA to replace Kabs (but he clearly struck out) and then trade Kabs for someone on the level of Ryan.

In that context, it's tough to say getting Martin would've been that bad - if it led to getting Ryan.
 
I think you guys are looking at this whole thing wrong.

Burke, like most fans here, realize Martin does not 'replace' Kaberle per say. If he trades Kaberle, he knows he's taking a significant downgrade in that position no matter what. Yet if he can land a young top line forward he, and many fans here, were willing to do that.

To help fill that hole left by his departure, assuming the trade goes through, Martin is not a bad defenseman to bring in - at the right price. The article says Martin picked PIT's offer over ours, but it doesn't say the 2 offers were the same. Plus, you know UFAs will be a little overpriced. I'm fine with that.

Ultimately he signed a lesser defenseman in Lebda to bolster his defense, in case the Kaberle trade goes through. But had he signed Martin to say, $3.5M per I'd be ok with that too. You have to realize Martin has played for one of the lowest scoring teams in the league his whole career too.
 
Last edited:
number17 said:
You have to realize Martin has played for one of the lowest scoring teams in the league his whole career too.
Click to expand...

This is an important point that many of those criticising Martin as an option haven't taken into consideration. I'm not a major proponent of him as any sort of Kaberle replacement, but like others have stated if that was the difference between landing a young elite-level or top six forward and simply moving forward with the group up-front that we have now, I would have been willing to have taken the downgrade on the back-end offensively in order to shore up our forward corps. And it's also a valid point to bring up the fact that Martin has spent his entire career in a system known for suppressing offence under names such as Robinson, Sutter, and Lemaire -- all very defensively-oriented coaches.

Take a look at what another player did upon his tenure in New Jersey and then his totals when he left.

Player A:

With New Jersey

1991-92 (age 18): 4 GP 0 goals 1 assist 1 point
1992-93 (age 19): 80 GP 11 goals 29 assists 40 points
1993-94 (age 20): 81 GP 10 goals 36 assists 41 points
1994-95 (age 21): 48 GP 4 goals 15 assists 19 points
1995-96 (age 22): 79 GP 8 goals 25 assists 33 points
1996-97 (age 23): 81 GP 5 goals 30 assists 35 points
1997-98 (age 24): 81 GP 14 goals 43 assists 57 points
1998-99 (age 25): 72 GP 11 goals 35 assists 46 points
1999-00 (age 26): 71 GP 7 goals 31 assists 38 points
2000-01 (age 27): 57 GP 6 goals 29 assists 35 points
2001-02 (age 28): 76 GP 11 goals 22 assists 33 points
2002-03 (age 29): 81 GP 11 goals 28 assists 39 points
2003-04 (age 30): 81 GP 14 goals 40 assists 54 points

Overall totals: 892 GP 112 goals 364 assists 476 points
Overall average: 69 GP 9 goals 28 assists 37 points (82 GP 11 goals 33 assists 44 points)

Upon leaving New Jersey

2005-06 (age 32): 82 GP 13 goals 50 assists 63 points
2006-07 (age 33): 79 GP 15 goals 54 assists 69 points
2007-08 (age 34): 48 GP 8 goals 17 assists 25 points
2008-09 (age 35): 82 GP 14 goals 45 assists 59 points
2009-10 (age 36): 80 GP 10 goals 38 assists 48 points

Overall totals: 371 GP 60 goals 204 assists 264 points
Overall average: 74 GP 12 goals 41 assists 53 points (82 GP 13 goals 45 assists 58 points)

Player A is of course, Scott Niedermayer. A player that excelled once he was allowed to exhibit his creative play fully without being constrained by the defensive system that had stifled his offensive totals during his career in the Meadowlands.
 
Paul Martin is no Niederamyer obviously, but it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone here if he went on to become a 40+ point defenceman in a new, less defensive system.
 
The key point you're overlooking in your niedermayer breakdown is the pre-lockout and post-lockout scoring differences.
 
Fine, I'll take Niedermayer's five "in-prime" seasons (ages 26 to 30 years old) and compare them to his five in Anaheim while adjusting for scoring in each respective season (ie. 1999-00 to 2005-06) and adjust for the offensive differences.


With New Jersey


Actual Totals

1999-00 (age 26): 71 GP 7 goals 31 assists 38 points
2000-01 (age 27): 57 GP 6 goals 29 assists 35 points
2001-02 (age 28): 76 GP 11 goals 22 assists 33 points
2002-03 (age 29): 81 GP 11 goals 28 assists 39 points
2003-04 (age 30): 81 GP 14 goals 40 assists 54 points

Overall totals: 366 GP 49 goals 150 assists 199 points
Overall average: 73 GP 10 goals 30 assists 40 points (82 GP 11 goals 34 assists 45 points)

Adjusted Totals

1999-00 (age 26): 71 GP 8 goals 35 assists 43 points
2000-01 (age 27): 57 GP 6 goals 31 assists 37 points
2001-02 (age 28): 76 GP 12 goals 23 assists 35 points
2002-03 (age 29): 81 GP 12 goals 31 assists 43 points
2003-04 (age 30): 81 GP 15 goals 44 assists 59 points

Overall totals: 366 GP 53 goals 164 assists 217 points
Overall average: 73 GP 11 goals 33 assists 44 points (82 GP 12 goals 37 assists 49 points)


With Anaheim


Actual Totals

2005-06 (age 32): 82 GP 13 goals 50 assists 63 points
2006-07 (age 33): 79 GP 15 goals 54 assists 69 points
2007-08 (age 34): 48 GP 8 goals 17 assists 25 points
2008-09 (age 35): 82 GP 14 goals 45 assists 59 points
2009-10 (age 36): 80 GP 10 goals 38 assists 48 points

Overall totals: 371 GP 60 goals 204 assists 264 points
Overall average: 74 GP 12 goals 41 assists 53 points (82 GP 13 goals 45 assists 58 points)

Adjusted Totals

2005-06 (age 32): 82 GP 12 goals 44 assists 56 points
2006-07 (age 33): 79 GP 14 goals 50 assists 64 points
2007-08 (age 34): 48 GP 8 goals 16 assists 24 points
2008-09 (age 35): 82 GP 13 goals 41 assists 54 points
2009-10 (age 36): 80 GP 9 goals 34 assists 43 points

Overall totals: 371 GP 56 goals 185 assists 241 points
Overall average: 74 GP 11 goals 37 assists 48 points (82 GP 12 goals 41 assists 53 points)
 
1997-98 (age 24): 81 GP 14 goals 43 assists 57 points
Click to expand...

When adjusted to 06/07 scoring levels (Nied's best season) this is a 64 point season, which would be the 2nd best season of his career. Did NJ stop playing their system for the season?

A lot of people talk about how Scott Stevens stopped scoring in his 30's in NJ and attribute that to the same "NJ effect" (which due to all sorts of forwards having career best numbers and those NJ teams consistently ranking among NHL GPG leaders, has turned into a defenseman only phenomena)...but what most don't both to check is that in 93/94 Stevens has 78 points in Jersey

Other defenders though either set, matched, or came close to matching their adjusted career best PPG pace in Jersey

Lyle Odelein

93-94: 40 pt, .51PPG season in Montreal, career best total
97-98: Adjusted (to 92-93) .54PPG (.44 raw) while in Jersey, career best

Scott Stevens

93-94: .94PPG in Jersey, career best

Eric Weinrich

90-91: .50PPG in Jersey, career best

The "New Jersey effect" is a myth, not held up at all by empirical evidence.
 
I'll admit that the numbers aren't nearly as different when adjusted as I expected them to be. Niedermayer was still better in Anaheim, but not by nearly a large enough margin to really say that there was a "New Jersey Effect" at work.
 
MindzEye said:
If we were able to get a legit first line forward for Kabs, I might not have hated it...but Paul Martin is horrifically over rated. Dude has scored more than 33 points once in his 6 season career...that's no more a replacement for Kaberle's offensive abilities than just letting Gunner & Beauch run with the offensive duties would be.

With the lack of defenders available in the market this year, there was never much a chance that he didn't get significantly overpaid.
Click to expand...

don't be deceived by those point totals.. martin's a good defenseman. he moves the puck very well and plays well at both ends of the ice. he isn't as good as kaberle but he'll see a nice spike in production once he's out of jersey, just like niedermayer did.
 
I don't understand why the Leafs would need to sign yet another UFA defenseman with a big contract, even if they traded Kaberle.
 
Last edited:
Yes, and I'm pretty confident if Martin can stay healthy, he should be a lock for 45 points this season with PIT, and 50 isn't impossible.

While that'd still be a downgrade from Kaberle (and just think for a second how many points Kaberle when he's playing with Crosby and Malkin game in, game out), he'd immediately be our best puck moving defenseman, and an upgrade over Gunnarson. Lebda, OTOH, can ease the workload of Gunnarson, but I don't think he'll be an upgrade over Gunnarson.

So even if Martin would've cost us Kaberle $$, which is $4.25M per, I'd still quite gladly trade Kaberle for a top line winger, while taking the 'downgrade' in Martin for the same $$.

Of course, all that is a moot point afterall.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top