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Leaf Rumours

JackBurton said:
I don't understand why the Leafswould need to sign yet another UFA defenseman with a big contract, even if they traded Kaberle.
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Because of all the remaining defensemen, Gunnarson is the only guy who has shown promising puck moving skills ... but Gunnarson is a rookie who played 3rd unit minutes last season.

Teams that overlook the transition game always end up paying for it.
 
msun30 said:
don't be deceived by those point totals.. martin's a good defenseman. he moves the puck very well and plays well at both ends of the ice. he isn't as good as kaberle but he'll see a nice spike in production once he's out of jersey, just like niedermayer did.
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The NJ effect is mythical...like a non covetous Jew.
 
MindzEye said:
The NJ effect is mythical...like a non covetous Jew.
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I wouldn't say it's mythical. Niedermayer's numbers still improved upon leaving despite getting substantially older (even while normalizing his totals), although puck-moving defencemen like him tend to age much more gracefully than physical Stevens types. However, it did surprise me to see the degree that the effect was exaggerated. There does appear to be an impact on at impeding a player's offensive statistics in New Jersey, but it doesn't appear to be substantial in any way, which I did not expect to find.
 
JackBurton said:
I don't understand why the Leafs would need to sign yet another UFA defenseman with a big contract, even if they traded Kaberle.
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because their point men on the pp would be beauchemin and phaneuf, both of whom are trigger men and not quarterbacks.

their only hope for a qb on the pp would be gunnarsson and that, frankly, is a stretch. he showed a ton of poise, some solid skating and smart defense.. but he really didn't show an awful lot offensively and they don't really have any offensive d-men coming through the woodwork that appear at all ready to challenge for an nhl role (and even in terms of prospects, outside of blacker they don't have any real offensive guys...)
 
JaysCyYoung said:
I wouldn't say it's mythical. Niedermayer's numbers still improved upon leaving despite getting substantially older (even while normalizing his totals), although puck-moving defencemen like him tend to age much more gracefully than physical Stevens types. However, it did surprise me to see the degree that the effect was exaggerated. There does appear to be an impact on at impeding a player's offensive statistics in New Jersey, but it doesn't appear to be substantial in any way, which I did not expect to find.
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even if you normalize to scoring trends.. his average on anaheim is a good 10-15 points higher per year than his average with the devils.

i mean... come on... the guy was posting 30 point seasons in what should have been his prime.

it's pretty much undeniable.
 
msun30 said:
niedermayer's 3 best offensive seasons came as a member of the ducks.
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When adjusted for league scoring, this just isn't true.

Even just taking his last pre lockout & first post lockout seasons:

03-04: 54 pts in 81 games (.67ppg)
05-06: 63 pts in 82 games (.77ppg)

His 03/04 numbers adjusted to 05/06 league scoring would be:

63 points

Looking at Nied's numbers the way you did is a little misleading...he regularly missed time in most of the seasons in his "prime" that you're looking at.
*Pace* Pace adjusted to 04/05 league scoring
97/98 (24) 57pts in 81GP (.70ppg) *58* 68
98/99 (25) 46pts in 72GP (.64ppg) *52* 61
99/00 (26) 38pts in 71GP (.54ppg) *44* 50
00/01 (27) 35pts in 57GP (.61ppg) *50* 56
01/02 (28) 33pts in 76GP (.43ppg) *36* 42
02/03 (29) 39pts in 81GP (.48ppg) *39* 45
03/04 (30) 54pts in 81GP (.67ppg) *55* 64


There's one clear down year in there, a few "average" years, and a few years where he was very good. When you adjust his entire body of work for the scoring that occurred after the lockout though, there is no significant increase in scoring rate that requires a "NJ factor" to be explained for.
 
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The rule changes didn't really effect the top level guys scoring totals that dramatically. They always scored.

It was the lesser guys whose totals went up after the lockout.
 
It really does boggle the mind that a team with Scott Stevens, Colin White, and Ken Daneyko on its blueline routinely recorded so few penalty minutes during the course of the season.
 
and of course, Niedermayer would be the only player on the Devils during that era who had their scoring negatively effected by playing on the Devils.

Holik, Guerin, Gomez, Mogilny, Arnott, Rafalski, Rolston...all of them put up numbers similar to their NJ numbers in their next stop after leaving Jersey.

There is no "New Jersey Effect"
 
new jersey had some up years, but other years where everybody's scoring dip.. explain, then, why guys like gomez, rafalski, niedermayer, arnott, guerin and rolston all became much more consistent after leaving new jersey.

every last one of them.

there most certainly is an effect there. it isn't even debatable. playing for a defense-first team, which new jersey was under lemaire and burns but not under ftorek and robinson, absolutely impacted player's scoring totals.
 
why guys like gomez, rafalski, niedermayer, arnott, guerin and rolston all became much more consistent after leaving new jersey.
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Because it's a figment of your imagination, or you're making far too much out of fluctuations that are very common among 2nd rate scoring talent (which as good as Jersey was over those years, none of them were elite talents...in most seasons, most of their forwards were ~60 point guys)
 
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MindzEye said:
Because it's a figment of your imagination, or you're making far too much out of fluctuations that are very common among 2nd rate scoring talent
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fluctuations that arnott, guerin, rafalski, niedermayer and rolston didn't have after leaving new jersey.
 
Which oddly enough, also coincided with them having become veteran hockey players with extensive experience in a winning atmospheres before leaving New Jersey.

Fluctuations, which when you look at each player, fall well within the expected fluctuations of an NHL hockey player over their careers.

Is there a "Toronto Effect" because Bryan McCabe went from 29-43-24-53 points in consecutive seasons, or was that just the maturation of a young NHL'er? Berezin, Korolev, Antropov all fluctuated significantly from season to season during that period as well.

You're reading far too much into the regular season to season scoring fluctuations from developing players.

If there is a "NJ effect" at work in their numbers, it has nothing to do with a defence first system, and everything to do with a drop in quality of play leading to a drop in opportunity as Jersey was so deep during those years that someone would step up into the top 6 minutes from the bottom 2 lines and take the opportunity of a Rolston, Gomez, etc if they weren't pulling their weight.
 
I hope Burke doesnt trade Kabs to the Sharks for Clowe, the guy is already 28 and is a 45-55 pt player, not good enough return for Kaberle. Johnson for Kabs is a stupid move if you ask me, we need a top 6 scorer, not another defensmen. I don't get why Burke isnt interested in Semin, the guy is easily a sick 40 plus goal scorer, something we need badly on this team. Roy wouldnt be a bad trade but I'd only do it if other options arent available.
 
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