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Leaf Rumours

i don't know why you guys are focusing on the $3.4mn season at age 39. in my opinion there is maybe a 10% chance he retires before that and it is almost entirely injury based odds. if he's healthy he's going to play that year. he isn't going to leave that coin on the table.

but what has about a 0 pct chance of happening is him coming back for the 3 seasons after that for something in the neighbourhood of $1.5mn combined. no. fuggin. way.
 
There's no way there's a 90% chance of him playing at 39, then a 0% chance of him playing the next year....




...odds are slim to none he plays at 39, for the same reasons it's virtually nil from 40 on.
 
leafman101 said:
Was having Ed Belfour in 05-06 not worth everything else he did previously for the Leafs?

No one in their right mind would say "I wish the Leafs never signed Belfour because he was expensive and done in 2005-06."
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That's a truly bogus analogy. Belfour was resigned after the 2004 season. Some (ahem) argued that wasn't a great move.

By the way, after making roughly $40 million over his previous 8 seasons, a 41 year old Belfour signed a contact for under $1 million to play for the Florida Panthers. Then, so desperate to hold onto his playing a career, signed the following year for peanuts to play in Sweden.

Not sure what makes people so confident Luongo won't want to hang on until the contract is done.
 
BeLeafer said:
That's a truly bogus analogy. Belfour was resigned after the 2004 season. Some (ahem) argued that wasn't a great move.

By the way, after making roughly $40 million over his previous 8 seasons, a 41 year old Belfour signed a contact for under $1 million to play for the Florida Panthers. Then, so desperate to hold onto his playing a career, signed the following year for peanuts to play in Sweden.

Not sure what makes people so confident Luongo won't want to hang on until the contract is done.
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Not sure why it matters if he plays or not. If he can still play, he can be a backup. If not, he can play in the minors. Most likely he will retire and be added to the staff.
 
Brodeur is 40 and he just signed a new 2 year deal. Goalies can play forever. I don't get why people are assuming Luongo will just retire in his late 30's when there's still money on the table. It doesn't matter how many millions he's made before that.

After this season, there projects to be a lot of interesting UFA goalie options --- Backstrom, Nabokov, Howard, M Smith etc.

I'd go with what we have, see how they progress, then re-evaluate after the season, and if there's still a need for a goalie, they will have other options available that won't cost the money and/or assets needed to acquire Luongo. Unless of course, Van City is just looking to do a salary dump for Luongo, then I'd be interested.
 
BeLeafer said:
That's a truly bogus analogy. Belfour was resigned after the 2004 season. Some (ahem) argued that wasn't a great move.

By the way, after making roughly $40 million over his previous 8 seasons, a 41 year old Belfour signed a contact for under $1 million to play for the Florida Panthers. Then, so desperate to hold onto his playing a career, signed the following year for peanuts to play in Sweden.

Not sure what makes people so confident Luongo won't want to hang on until the contract is done.
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People should also look at Jagr, Recchi and others who have taken paycuts and continued to play in their late 30s/early 40s or guys like Chelios and Hasek who went even later than that with salaries at a fraction of earlier in their careers.
 
But all those guys played because they still could, and were effective parts of their team. No one would be opposed to Luongo playing for $500 k if he is still good.

The examples of guys who hung on despite being terrible and a waste of a roster spot are few and far between.
 
BeLeafer said:
That's a truly bogus analogy. Belfour was resigned after the 2004 season. Some (ahem) argued that wasn't a great move.

By the way, after making roughly $40 million over his previous 8 seasons, a 41 year old Belfour signed a contact for under $1 million to play for the Florida Panthers. Then, so desperate to hold onto his playing a career, signed the following year for peanuts to play in Sweden.
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Regardless, the point stands. Having a shitty, washed up Belfour at 40 was well worth the few good years he had here (necessary or not). No one would say otherwise.
 
If Luongo's lost it by 39 or 40, why wouldn't he want to sit on the bench, be a back-up, mentor the younger goalie infront of him and collect a mill +?

Better than sitting at home with the wife collecting $0.0

Not saying this will happen, but you can't rule out the possibility. Nobody knows what Luongo will be thinking 5 years from now.
 
leafman101 said:
But all those guys played because they still could, and were effective parts of their team. No one would be opposed to Luongo playing for $500 k if he is still good.

The examples of guys who hung on despite being terrible and a waste of a roster spot are few and far between.
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Is this because they didnt want to play? or because no one would give them a contract?
 
leafman101 said:
Both. Lots of guys retire with time left on their contract, with a lot more money to be paid than Luongo will be due.
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can't think of very many guys who have retired with big money left on their deals in hockey. maybe in football? basketball players still get paid out, or at least used to (remember the hakeem debacle?)
 
Its not big money though, he's making ~$1 mill a year the last 3 years.

He'll stick around for the $3.9 but after that the ony reason to keep playing is if he still can. He's not going to embarass himself for $1 million.
 
Looking for historical reference is probably a bit of a folly for a number of reasons.

1) The cap is the only reason this became important, and the cap has only existed for 7 years
2) The "retirement contract" is a function of the cap environment, and none of the front loaded contracts designed to circumvent the cap have run their course yet.
3) Until these contracts, signing someone long term, into their late 30's - early 40's was unheard of.


Something to take into consideration though, is that these contracts are quite clearly designed by the players and teams that signed them, for the player's to retire before they end. Will Luongo retire with 3.4 million waiting for him as a 39 year old? Maybe, maybe not...a lot will depend on his ability to contribute I'd imagine, he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who would be willing to stick around to be a backup for a paycheque. Will he stick around to make 1 million a year into his 40's though? Not a ****ing chance, and he signed a contract designed the way his is, for a purpose.
 
i dunno. $3.4mn for one year is a **** ton to leave on the table. i really couldn't imagine a guy retiring with that much coin on the table unless he was really embarrassing himself. but we also have to remember that he would probably be at the very least a good backup. most contemporary top goalies were still decent at 39... brodeur, hasek, belfour, etc.

but those $1mn years... yeah, i agree. unlikely he plays those years out. maybe one of them, but i'm pretty suspect. i mean we can't ignore the fact that alfie was sest to come back at 40 for $1.5mn...
 
mbow30 said:
i dunno. $3.4mn for one year is a **** ton to leave on the table. i really couldn't imagine a guy retiring with that much coin on the table unless he was really embarrassing himself. but we also have to remember that he would probably be at the very least a good backup. most contemporary top goalies were still decent at 39... brodeur, hasek, belfour, etc.
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and that's fair enough...odds are, he'll still be worth something in the range of 5.3 million if he maintains the majority of his form. He's been pretty impervious to serious injury through out his career and doesn't depend on athleticism.

but those $1mn years... yeah, i agree. unlikely he plays those years out. maybe one of them, but i'm pretty suspect. i mean we can't ignore the fact that alfie was sest to come back at 40 for $1.5mn...
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Yeah, I thought about ratface when I posting that....I think Alfie is a bit of an outlier in the fact that at his age he's still more than effective, and he's very attached to that franchise. If Luongo is still effective at 40-41 and wants to play...****, let him. At the absolute least he's incredibly tradeable if he's still decent.
 
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