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Leaf Rumours

JaysCyYoung said:
1.) A back-up that can give you .910 or greater is comfortably above-average. These aren't starters; you expect a decline in performance relative to your number one guy..
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Then Scrivens was well above average.

JaysCyYoung said:
2.) Scrivens was falling off the face of the Earth when the end of the season saved him. I'd project him to be about a .903 to .907 guy over a full year's worth of duty, but he started hot.
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I see. Explain away the good games, focus on the bad games.

Great way to evaluate players.
 
Hey, if you want to disregard the warning signs, especially when there are numerous red flags, be my guests. You still haven't convinced me Scrivens is anything other than a marginal player.
 
Bernier is a lottery ticket and might not be better than Scrivens. But so is Reimer, even after last season. That’s just how it is with goaltenders. It’s why the Leafs traded for Bernier.
 
And really, both Scrivens and Bernier's save % stats are way too small of a sample size to derive much of anything.

Hell, even Reimer's at this point.
 
Reimer hasn't even played 40 games in a season yet. He hasn't even played the 38 games that Brian Elliott did 2 years ago when he posted an insane .940.

Reimer should win the spot, but having Bernier increases the Leafs odds of starting goaltending substantially.

I'm also personally not a big fan of Frattin. And I like Scrivens as a backup fine, but Bernier will almost definitely be at least as good in a backup role and has the potential to be much better.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
I go by numbers and the eyeball test/scouting/historical precedent. You would do well to include both factors.
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You aren't going by the numbers.

If you were, according to your own criteria by the way, Scrivens was a well above average backup posting a 915 SV% in 20+ games.

But instead, you've decide the last few games were the "real" Scrivens and disregarded the rest of the season.
 
Aardvarkmayhem said:
Reimer hasn't even played 40 games in a season yet. He hasn't even played the 38 games that Brian Elliott did 2 years ago when he posted an insane .940.

Reimer should win the spot, but having Bernier increases the Leafs odds of starting goaltending substantially.

I'm also personally not a big fan of Frattin. And I like Scrivens as a backup fine, but Bernier will almost definitely be at least as good in a backup role and has the potential to be much better.
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Only question is durability for Reimer, I agree.

But if Reimer can play well in a starters role over 30ish games, I don't see why he can't play well in a starters role over 50ish games.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
You aren't going by the numbers.

If you were, according to your own criteria by the way, Scrivens was a well above average backup posting a 915 SV% in 20+ games.

But instead, you've decide the last few games were the "real" Scrivens and disregarded the rest of the season.
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I am going by the numbers.

I believe that at minimum Bernier represents an upgrade at back-up (to say nothing of him potentially grabbing the starter's job), given that he had a sizable save percentage advantage (.922 to .915, with him going up and Scrivens going down in their last month).

I also believe the numbers show Bernier to be a much better AHL goalie than Scrivens as well (.937 >>> .926) and that based on his pedigree, draft position, scouting reports, and style (which has historically translated MUCH better to the NHL), he will be the superior goaltender going forward.

Goaltenders like Scrivens rarely succeed in the NHL.
 
JaysCyYoung said:
I am going by the numbers.

I believe that at minimum Bernier represents an upgrade at back-up (to say nothing of him potentially grabbing the starter's job), given that he had a sizable save percentage advantage (.922 to .915, with him going up and Scrivens going down in their last month).

I also believe the numbers show Bernier to be a much better AHL goalie than Scrivens as well (.937 >>> .926) and that based on his pedigree, draft position, scouting reports, and style (which has historically translated MUCH better to the NHL), he will be the superior goaltender going forward.

Goaltenders like Scrivens rarely succeed in the NHL.
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NHL, 12/13:
Bernier: 14 gms, 922 SV%
Scrivens: 20 gms, 915 SV%

NHL Career:
Bernier: 62 gms, 912 SV%
Scrivens: 32 gms, 910 SV%

AHL Career:
Bernier:115 gms, 927 SV%
Scrivens: 72 gms, 925 SV%
 
With Scrivens, if you're going to place more emphasis on one period of time over another, I'd put the emphasis on the stretch when he was the actually the starter when Reimer was hurt. That would tell us a lot more about him than the times he was getting spot starts every now and then towards the end of the year.

Taking over as starter (Feb 11 - 27): 9 gms, 933 SV%

He gets undervalued because he's not "pretty".
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Only question is durability for Reimer, I agree.

But if Reimer can play well in a starters role over 30ish games, I don't see why he can't play well in a starters role over 50ish games.
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I mean, you’ve said many times you’d rather the Leafs not spend top dollars to commit to a reliable starter and instead have them take smart, low-risk gambles. Bernier is a smart gamble that really only cost the Leafs a marginal 3rd liner in Frattin and Nonis hasn’t left the Leafs scrambling at the last second in order to make it.

Really, I’m happy this management group is taking a different approach than previous ones who would anoint an unproven young goalie as starter before he’s earned it. It’s not like the Leafs are totally depending on Bernier. Nor are they totally depending on Reimer now. This is a great position to be in.
 
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