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New Canadian Politics Thread

Slinger 48 said:
When I say happy with a minority I mean I'd be happy that Peckerhead didn't get in.
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Yeah, given where we were a few months ago a minority is fine. My concern is that a minority isn't enough for the CPC to bring the knives out for him.

The projections as it sits now:

1744749061444.png

Puts us in a weird place if Carney shed ~20 of those on election night. The only coalition I see is Liberal + NDP and with the NDP this fucking shattered, they might look for the first moment of Liberal weakness to think they can gain a dozen seats and force an election on us in 24 months. Or is the NDP so cratered that they need the full 5 years to lick those wounds and the new leader is willing to play the long game?

It's obviously better than a CPC government in any form, but I'd still much much rather a Carney majority for the next 5 years which stands a pretty good chance of killing off PP's ambitions, and imo stands a better okay chance of the right fracturing pretty hard, especially with Dougie waiting in the wings to challenge for the federal job while not being a Trumpistanian anymore apparently.
 
It’s funny, I was just thinking earlier today that Trump and everyone in his administration have been remarkably disciplined about keeping the annexation talk under wraps for the past couple of weeks, and how that’s definitely been to PP’s benefit.

I assumed that someone had gotten it through their thick skulls PP is an ally, that TrumpWorld people have been pumping his tires for years now in the hopes of getting him elected as PM and that the annexation & “51st state” stuff was fatally damaging his chances.

Well, it seems like Buchenwald Barbie couldn’t help herself when the subject of Canada came up at a White House press briefing today:




It’s been a while since President Trump has mused openly about annexing Canada and turning it into the 51st state. But White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday said that’s not because Trump has changed his mind, he just hasn’t been asked about it.

“The president still maintains his position on Canada. The United States has been subsidizing Canada’s national defense, and he believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America,” said Leavitt, at the White House’s daily press briefing.
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All of his ideas are borrowed from their ideas

Stephen Harper's former chief of staff says a Poilievre government could move 'quickly' to cut the public service

Time is of the essence to reduce the federal budget for Stephen Harper's former chief of staff Ian Brodie.
ottawacitizen.com

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Just a quick note here: The total cost of the Canadian government (all levels, all public spend) as a portion of GDP is lower than all major western economies with socialized healthcare other than Japan. We spend less on goverment than Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK, etc. Japan spend 3% less of their GDP than we spend.

The US spends less than half of those other nations, and you get what you fucking pay for. The only reason to want to drastically cut government here is because one of our parties desires for a deep americanization of Canada.
 
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Slinger 48 said:
I hope you're right.

A majority would be good but I'd be happy with a minority for sure.
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They might get a majority. It’ll come down to the suburbs around Toronto (especially) and Montreal. The former because they are so massive and the latter because they are still numerous and uniquely volatile.

I could see a scenario where the BQ still winds up with 30+ seats, the improvement coming entirely at the expense of the Ls. In other regions, and uptick in NDP votes would split the left and perhaps lead a to a small run CPC wins.

I don’t think the CPC itself will do much better than the polls are indicating. ~ 36/37 %
 
MindzEye said:
All of his ideas are borrowed from their ideas

Stephen Harper's former chief of staff says a Poilievre government could move 'quickly' to cut the public service

Time is of the essence to reduce the federal budget for Stephen Harper's former chief of staff Ian Brodie.
ottawacitizen.com

View attachment 25984

Just a quick note here: The total cost of the Canadian government (all levels, all public spend) as a portion of GDP is lower than all major western economies with socialized healthcare other than Japan. We spend less on goverment than Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK, etc. Japan spend 3% less of their GDP than we spend.

The US spends less than half of those other nations, and you get what you fucking pay for. The only reason to want to drastically cut government here is because one of our parties desires for a deep americanization of Canada.
Click to expand...
I have no idea why they would say something like that strategically. Seems totally fucking boneheaded.
 
lecoqsportif said:
They might get a majority. It’ll come down to the suburbs around Toronto (especially) and Montreal. The former because they are so massive and the latter because they are still numerous and uniquely volatile.

I could see a scenario where the BQ still winds up with 30+ seats, the improvement coming entirely at the expense of the Ls. In other regions, and uptick in NDP votes would split the left and perhaps lead a to a small run CPC wins.

I don’t think the CPC itself will do much better than the polls are indicating. ~ 36/37 %
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Fwiw in Ontario polling, the only polls that have the NDP anything but single digit cratered, have their 12-14% level support coming at the expense of the Conservatives, not the Liberals.

Also, while the Liberals have levelled off nationally, they're still trending slightly upward in Ontario. Aggregate has them at 49%, but polling from this week mostly has them at 51-52%.

BC is probably the most dynamic place to watch, but BC is going to be stratified between urban/rural. I don't think the seat count is going to shift bigly from current projections

1744754515613.png

The projections have 6 of the seats the Liberals are currently favourite in as close races, but 2 of those 6 would flip NDP and not CPC

To not get a majority it would take the L's losing all 6 of those toss ups, their 3 toss ups they currently are projected to win in Calgary, the 2 in Edmonton, the northern Manitoba toss up, their 2 toss ups in ontario (Niagara falls and Peterborough), and then just about everything considered a close race in Montreal

1744754839881.png
 
Alright, because I'm a lunatic I counted:

- 338 currently has the LPC as leading 19 "toss up" ridings. Of those 19, the CPC are in 2nd in 12 of them, the NDP in 3 of them, BQ in 4 of them
- The CPC is currently leading in 13 toss up ridings, with 2nd place being Liberal in 10, NDP in 2, Green in 1.

The CPC look to be almost as vulnerable as the Liberals are to shed seats between now and the election.

It would take something of a minor disaster between now and the election for the Liberals to not secure a majority imo. There's another 12 that are "Liberal Lean" that would take a hell of a voting shift back towards unpopular Pierre for them to get chewed into at all.
 
MindzEye said:
All of his ideas are borrowed from their ideas

Stephen Harper's former chief of staff says a Poilievre government could move 'quickly' to cut the public service

Time is of the essence to reduce the federal budget for Stephen Harper's former chief of staff Ian Brodie.
ottawacitizen.com

View attachment 25984

Just a quick note here: The total cost of the Canadian government (all levels, all public spend) as a portion of GDP is lower than all major western economies with socialized healthcare other than Japan. We spend less on goverment than Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK, etc. Japan spend 3% less of their GDP than we spend.

The US spends less than half of those other nations, and you get what you fucking pay for. The only reason to want to drastically cut government here is because one of our parties desires for a deep americanization of Canada.
Click to expand...


This definitely seems like a first step you’d want to take if one of your goals is to get rid of socialized, single-payer health care & move to a privatized, American-style system.

And probably a lot of the motivation here too is the paranoid belief that the Civil service is full of deep-state Librul cucks intent on thrwarting Conservative governments at every turn.
 
MindzEye said:
So have two ridings here. Not the one I live in, fucking sadly, but the north end of barrie and rural riding just to our north.
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The sign war is interesting. I see lots of signs for Nazi lunch date Dean Allison, the incumbent. There are a couple for the PPC candidate and none for any left candidates.

However, there are fewer signs than in previous years
 
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