No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

[zeke]

At the end of October.....

​

So they did ok, but far from great.


the really annoying thing to me was the two embarassing efforts in a row vs two injured bottom feeders CBJ and STL. Those were pathetic. Other than those two games i've been mostly happy. Maybe the team was still sick or something those games. Or maybe thye just don't show up against weak teams.

If we had showed up in those two games, all our numbers here would look good to very good, including being near the top of the standings. Gonna need a lot of wins to make me get over those two games tbh.



one real glaring issue so far is the PP, though that looks like plenty of bad luck mixed in there at the moment.

 

[zeke]

​

There's been two pretty significant developments over the last few games which are really promising:

1. Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander has been a dominant combo in the two games they've been together. That's three long-time top-end first-line caliber players there, and this has the potential to be the best 2nd line we've had.

2. The initial defense pairings were a surprise to me, but they did pretty well. But a few games ago Berube switched them up to something that made even more sense, and since then the top 4 has looked pretty dominant. He changed from two balanced pairings to one defensive matchup pairing (McCabe-Tanev) and one bigger minute more offensive pairing (Mo-OEL). This does have the makings of the best top 4 we've had.

I think McCabe-Tanev is a definite keeper shutdown pairing and I doubt they'll ever be split up much going forward. I'm a bit more skeptical on OEL keeping up on the top pairing, but that's not a huge deal given how Mo has looked in the playoffs with a physical defensive partner. If Mo-OEL falters at all i could easily see a situation where we go with a Mo-Hakanpaa pairing, with Hak likely at least as good and probably better than the likes of Boosh/Schenn, and then OEL could upgrade the 3rd pairing with any of Benoit/Timmins/whoever.



I also think it's clear that we have plenty of solid options for the 4th line and bottom pairing and that shouldn't be an issue at all this year.


So the one thing that we need to find now is a 3rd line that clicks. On paper, McMann-Domi-Robby has plenty of speed grit and skill and there's no reason it can't be a very good 3rd line, albeit in more offensive usage. Then there's also Holmberg and Jarnkrok who have the skillsets to be in that 3rd line mix too. If the 3rd line starts clicking then we'd start looking pretty tough.

 

[leafman101]

The third line will always struggle until we get another legit top 9 C.

 

[zeke]

Domi got to a conference finals as a 3C. I don't think there's any reason he can't be very good there in a sheltered 3rd line role.

 

[zeke]

Trying to see how roles have changed/been replaced from last year to this year.

Start with TOI% (percentage of total ice time)

TOI% Last Year ---> This year

5v5

Matthews 31.2% ---> Matthews 29.4%
Marner 29.6% ---> Marner 30.1%
Nylander 29.1% ---> Nylander 28.5%
Tavares 28.35 ---> Tavares 26.0%
​

Willy's got nothing to complain about in terms of TOI tbh. Matthews and Tavares have lost more. Though I'm thinking Tavares' TOI will be going back up with how he's playing and his new line.

Bertuzzi 28.5% ---> Pacioretty 22.6%
Knies 25.6% ---> Knies 28.8%
Domi 24.6% ---> Domi 26.5%
Krok 24.1%/Robby 21.4%/McMann 21.2%/Holmberg 21.1% ---> Robertson 24.2%/Holmberg 22.7%/McMann 26.5%
Krok 24.1%/Robby 21.4%/McMann 21.2%/Holmberg 21.1% ---> Robertson 24.2%/Holmberg 22.7%/McMann 26.5%
​

Looking like it's gonna be Patches that replaced Bertuzzi after all, and it looks like he's gonna be an upgrade. I'm sure Patches TOI will move up now too.

Knies has seen a big bump in ice time and I imagine it'll stay that way. Domi's also seen a big rise but with how tavares is playing and Domi looking like he's gonna be 3C now.....that ice probably comes back down.

And then we have the same group of guys battling for the last two top-9 slots. We'll see who wins in the end. And it would be nice if the "losers" of this battle are used to upgrade the 4th line.

Kampf 21.8% ---> Kampf 20.2%
Gregor 20.7%/Dewar 21.6% ---> Lorentz 18.8%
Reaves 16.3% ---> Reaves 17.3%
​

Sucks that we're going with just another version of this line again (so far), though at least they're getting less ice time this year. Can only hope that the 3rd line battles end up with at least Reaves out of the lineup.

Rielly 38.7% ---> Rielly 38.3%
McCabe 35.2% ---> McCabe 36.4%
​

McCabe seeing a bit of a bump in TOI now that he's not partnered with a bottom pair type.

Brodie 37.0%/Eddy 31.5% ---> Tanev 33.3%
Lilly 33.2%/Klinger 33.6% ---> OEL 36.3%
​

We'll see how the ice time settles but this is looking like a nice upgrade here.

Lagesson 26.2%/Benoit 31.1% ---> Benoit 28.1%
Gio 27.8%/Timmins 29.0%/Boosh 30.9% ---> Timmins 28.7%
​

3rd pair should be more properly sheltered this year. I like the Benoit-Timmins skillsets in this role tbh, but I'm sure Hakanpaa will be getting the bulk of the time here and probably kicking out Timmins. Though a Benoit-Hak pair may run into some issues. But maybe not.

​

 

[leafman101]

Domi got to a conference finals as a 3C. I don't think there's any reason he can't be very good there in a sheltered 3rd line role.

Marchment-Domi-Seguin - 55.5 mins, 46.4% xGF, 20% goals
Marchment-Domi-Dellendrea - 52.2 mins, 34.2% xGF, 25% goals

I'd rather get a C.

 

[zeke]

I get

Marchment-Domi-Seguin 56min, 44.3xgf%, 21.1gf%
Marchment-Domi-Dellandrea 53min, 47.7xgf%, 42.8gf%
Kiviranta-Domi-Dellandrea 29min, 45.4xgf%, 53.0gf%
Kiviranta-Domi-Seguin 18min, 56.5xgf%, 51.4gf%
Marchment-Domi-Dadonov 6min, 57.5xg%, 50.0gf%


Playoffs Domi 47.2xgf% (-5.6rel), 45.2gf% (+2.4rel)

 

[Preston]

The worst part about Domi as a C is that you're not maximizing his value at all. He's a realgud player that adds huge value in the right situation. As a center he's always gonna be a bit of a weak spot tho which isn't ideal for a guy who makes almost $4m.

 

[leafman101]

He's also two of our 3 worst lines this year at C, and the only line that has played more than 15 mins and is <50% xGF.

3C is really the only hole on the roster, and should be their primary deadline target, barring being able to get a #1 D.

 

[Preston]

I don't give much of a fuck about giving him minutes there all season tbh. They can hang just fine with him there for the most part in most matchups, even if it's not ideal. But yeah, by playoffs I would hope to see an upgrade there.

 

[MindzEye]

He's fine in a pinch, but I'd really prefer to have a matchup guy as the 3C so neither of Matthews or JT has to carry the heavies in the playoffs. Someone is going to be available at the deadline who fits the bill. Without pulling up puckpedia to look at contract lengths... Nelson, Eller, Couturier, Laughton, ROR (maybe Berube being here changes his tune on wanting to play in Toronto), Gourde, etc.

 

[mbow30]

Trying to see how roles have changed/been replaced from last year to this year.

Start with TOI% (percentage of total ice time)

TOI% Last Year ---> This year

5v5

Matthews 31.2% ---> Matthews 29.4%
Marner 29.6% ---> Marner 30.1%
Nylander 29.1% ---> Nylander 28.5%
Tavares 28.35 ---> Tavares 26.0%
​

Willy's got nothing to complain about in terms of TOI tbh. Matthews and Tavares have lost more. Though I'm thinking Tavares' TOI will be going back up with how he's playing and his new line.

Bertuzzi 28.5% ---> Pacioretty 22.6%
Knies 25.6% ---> Knies 28.8%
Domi 24.6% ---> Domi 26.5%
Krok 24.1%/Robby 21.4%/McMann 21.2%/Holmberg 21.1% ---> Robertson 24.2%/Holmberg 22.7%/McMann 26.5%
Krok 24.1%/Robby 21.4%/McMann 21.2%/Holmberg 21.1% ---> Robertson 24.2%/Holmberg 22.7%/McMann 26.5%
​

Looking like it's gonna be Patches that replaced Bertuzzi after all, and it looks like he's gonna be an upgrade. I'm sure Patches TOI will move up now too.

Knies has seen a big bump in ice time and I imagine it'll stay that way. Domi's also seen a big rise but with how tavares is playing and Domi looking like he's gonna be 3C now.....that ice probably comes back down.

And then we have the same group of guys battling for the last two top-9 slots. We'll see who wins in the end. And it would be nice if the "losers" of this battle are used to upgrade the 4th line.

Kampf 21.8% ---> Kampf 20.2%
Gregor 20.7%/Dewar 21.6% ---> Lorentz 18.8%
Reaves 16.3% ---> Reaves 17.3%
​

Sucks that we're going with just another version of this line again (so far), though at least they're getting less ice time this year. Can only hope that the 3rd line battles end up with at least Reaves out of the lineup.

Rielly 38.7% ---> Rielly 38.3%
McCabe 35.2% ---> McCabe 36.4%
​

McCabe seeing a bit of a bump in TOI now that he's not partnered with a bottom pair type.

Brodie 37.0%/Eddy 31.5% ---> Tanev 33.3%
Lilly 33.2%/Klinger 33.6% ---> OEL 36.3%
​

We'll see how the ice time settles but this is looking like a nice upgrade here.

Lagesson 26.2%/Benoit 31.1% ---> Benoit 28.1%
Gio 27.8%/Timmins 29.0%/Boosh 30.9% ---> Timmins 28.7%
​

3rd pair should be more properly sheltered this year. I like the Benoit-Timmins skillsets in this role tbh, but I'm sure Hakanpaa will be getting the bulk of the time here and probably kicking out Timmins. Though a Benoit-Hak pair may run into some issues. But maybe not.

​

Agree - willy and JT will see their ice time creep up if they’re playing together. I think their drop in TOI is probably attributable to running a 2A/2B set up.

Matthews 5v5 drop likely correlates to his role on the pk - he used to get the first shift after the kill, and typically without Marner.

 

[GEEMAN]

He's fine in a pinch, but I'd really prefer to have a matchup guy as the 3C so neither of Matthews or JT has to carry the heavies in the playoffs. Someone is going to be available at the deadline who fits the bill. Without pulling up puckpedia to look at contract lengths... Nelson, Eller, Couturier, Laughton, ROR (maybe Berube being here changes his tune on wanting to play in Toronto), Gourde, etc.

Brock Nelson is a great fit on your roster

 

[mbow30]

As for Domi - he’s a good jackknife but I think the hope was for Holmberg to lock down the spot and unfortunately he’s been terrible. Maybe Minten can do it…

 

[zeke]

Stars Playoffs '23

Even Strength

Hintz 14:26, 13pts, 0.68ppg, +4, 53.4fo%
Domi 13:37, 13pts, 0.68ppg, -3, 56.3fo%
Pavelski 15:23, 9pts, 0.64ppg, -1, 56.6fo%
Dadonov 14:08, 8pts, 0.50ppg, +5
Robertson 15:43, 8pts, 0.42ppg, +0
Benn 13:15, 7pts, 0.41ppg, -1, 62.4fo%
Marchment 13:16, 6pts, 0.33ppg, -8
Kiviranta 10:44, 4pts, 0.27ppg, +0
Johnston 15:12, 5pts, 0.26ppg, -4, 40.9fo%
Seguin 13:40, 4pts, 0.21ppg, -8, 53.5fo%
Dellandrea 12:56,3pts, 0.20ppg, -4, 46.7fo%
Glendening 9:18, 3pts, 0.18ppg, -5, 60.0fo%
Faksa 11:40, 3pts, 0.16ppg, 60.6fo%

 

[zeke]

Wanted to look at how Hakanpaa fit into the Stars' defense last 2yrs

Reg Season 5v5

1. Heiskanen 150gms, 19:16 (-5.3dzs%), 56.8xgf% (+2.4rel), 0.92ap/60
2. Harley 85gms, 17:53 (-1.8dzs%), 57.1xgf% (+1.9rel), 1.05ap/60 / Miller 79gms, 15:42 (-3.9dzs%), 53.1xgf% (-0.7rel), 0.73ap/60

3. Suter 164gms, 16:54 (+0.3dzs%), 53.7xgf% (-0.8rel), 0.59ap/60
(X. Tanev 19gms, 16:33 (+9.5dzs%), 61.4xgf% (+4.6rel), 0.76ap/60
4. Lindell 164gms, 15:55 (+7.0dzs%), 54.5xgf% (+0.8rel), 0.73ap/60

5. Hakanpaa 146gms, 15:19 (+7.8dzs%), 50.7xgf% (-3.3rel), 0.54ap/60
6. Lundkvist 119gms, 13:40 (-4.0dzs%), 52.7xgf% (-1.5rel), 0.85ap/60
7. Hanley 58gms, 12:29 (+2.0dzs%), 53.1xgf% (-1.5rel), 0.33ap/60


Playoffs

1. Heiskanen 38gms, 22:45 (-6.1dzs%), 50.8xgf% (-3.6rel), 0.62ap/60
2. Tanev 19gms, 19:42 (+13.2dzs%), 54.8xgf% (+1.1rel), 0.08ap/60

3. Lindell 38gms, 19:06 (+9.7dzs%), 49.1xgf% (-4.9rel), 0.33ap/60
4. Suter 38gms, 18:29 (+2.0dzs%), 53.0xgf% (+1.1rel), 0.51ap/60

5. Harley 38gms, 18:09 (-4.8dzs%), 60.0xgf% (+5.8rel), 0.82ap/60
6. Hakanpaa 15gms, 16:04 (+10.5dzs%), 53.9xgf% (+1.4rel), 0.50ap/60

7. Miller 10gms, 14:31 (-1.5dzs%), 58.3xgf% (+4.7rel), 0.41ap/60
8. Hanley 13gms, 12:09 (+0.8dzs%), 67.4xgf% (+10.3rel), 0.38ap/60
9. Lundkvist 12gms, 4:21 (-16.3dzs%), 52.4xgf% (-1.2rel), 1.15ap/60



2022-23 Pairings

Heiskanen-Miller 724min, 54.1xgf%, 61.7gf%
Heiskanen-Suter 386min, 53.1xgf%, 45.6gf%
Heiskanen-Lundkvist 260min, 49.8xgf%, 40.6gf%

Lindell-Hakanpaa 987min, 50.3xgf%, 52.6gf%
Suter-Hakanpaa 143min, 52.3xgf%, 30.4gf%

Suter-Lundkvist 447min, 53.1xgf%, 45.6gf%
Suter-Miller 229min, 51.8xgf%, 53.1gf%
Suter-Hanley 126min, 61.6xgf%, 72.2gf%


Playoffs

Heiskanen-Suter 324min, 50.0xgf%, 43.7gf%
Heiskanen-Harley 44min, 59.1xgf%, 73.9gf%

Lindell-Hakanpaa 193min, 50.5xgf%, 33.0gf%
Lindell-Miller 63min, 55.1xgf%, 41.7gf%

Hanley-Harley 128min, 69.3xgf%, 69.1gf%
Miller-Harley 60min, 58.0xgf%, 33.0gf%

2023-24

Heiskanen-Harley 605min, 62.4xgf%, 62.6gf%
Heiskanen-Suter 575min, 56.5xgf%, 43.9gf%

Lindell-Hakanpaa 598min, 53.2xgf%, 49.0gf%
Lindell-Tanev 208min, 65.3xgf%, 57.1gf%
Harley-Hakanpaa 190min, 44.8xgf%, 54.5gf%
Lindell-Lundqvist 185min, 48.6xgf%, 61.2gf%
Suter-Hakanpaa 132min, 45.8xgf%, 48.4gf%
Lindell-Suter 131min, 50.0xgf%, 58.3gf%

Lundkvist-Suter 306min, 56.5xgf%, 67.4gf%
Hanley-Harley 218min, 52.9xgf%, 49.7gf%
Lundkvist-Harley 183min, 49.6xgf%, 63.0gf%


Playoffs

Heiskanen-Harley 213min, 55.5xgf%, 63.6gf%
Heiskanen-Lindell 103min, 51.3xgf%, 41.0gf%
Heiskanen-Suter 93min, 50.7xgf%, 51.1gf%
Heiskanen-Tanev 33min, 61.2xgf%, 50.0gf%

Lindell-Tanev 188min, 53.4xgf%, 44.8gf%
Harley-Tanev 87min, 61.2xgf%, 81.2gf%
Suter-Tanev 67min, 51.4xgf%, 61.6gf%
Lindell-Harley 51min, 41.3xgf%, 30.5gf%
Lindell-Suter 48min, 46.4xgf%, 0.0gf%

Suter-Petrovic 60min, 54.1xgf%, 48.2gf%






I'm actually a bit surprised by how big Hakanpaa's role was - he was on the 2nd pair shutdown pair with Lindell mainly. Suter got slightly more TOI than him but as more of a sheltered swingman between the bottom pair and top pair.


And it looks like Hakanpaa's injury is actually a big reason why they went and got Tanev, who took his spot on that shutdown pair with Lindell....and, to his credit, did much much better than Hakanpaa in that role.



We don't want or need Hak in that kind of role, but he might have a chance to look better in a more sheltered role, whether that's strictly bottom pair, or if it's in sheltered usage beside Mo.

 

[zeke]

Brock Nelson is a great fit on your roster

a great fit on any roster really.

 

[zeke]

oh i meant to see how the stars' D was looking this year without Hak and Tanev.

admittedly not exactly fair given they replaced them both with absolute trash. but still, some of that trash was on our roster quite recently and we're hoping that Hak is an upgrade on that at least.


1. Heiskanen 9gms, 18:55 (+3.3dzs%), 51.7xgf% (+4.0rel), 0.35ap/60
2. Harley 9gms, 17:12 (-6.1dzs%), 51.4xgf% (+0.9rel), 0.78ap/60

3. Lindell 9gms, 16:24 (+3.3dzs%), 49.5xgf% (+2.9rel), 0.41ap/60
4. Lyubushkin 9gms, 14:01 (+2.2dzs%), 42.2xgf% (-5.8rel), 0.00ap/60

5. Lundkvist 9gms, 13:50 (-4.4dzs%), 55.0xgf% (+5.9rel), 0.00ap/60
6. Dumba 5gms, 13:58 (+4.7dzs%), 42.5xgf% (-5.5rel), 0.00ap/60
7. Smith 4gms, 10:32 (+1.8dzs%), 31.6xgf% (-19.2rel), 0.00ap/60



Heiskanen-Harley 64min, 51.4xgf%, 43.6gf%
Heiskanen-Dumba 54min, 46.2xgf%, 68.3gf%
Lindell-Heiskanen 21min, 47.0xgf%, 50.0gf%

Harley-Lyubushkin 54min, 41.2xgf%, 34.5gf%

Lindell-Lundkvist 73min, 56.5xgf%, 50.0gf%
Lindell-Lyubushkin 33min, 50.9xgf%, 100.0gf%

Smith-Lyubushkin 27min, 40.6xgf%, 50.0gf%


Looks like Boosh is getting somewhat similar role as Hakanpaa had.....except not nearly as harsh zone deployment...and he's doing much worse.

good sign for what Hak might be able to bring (if healthy).

 

[Leafin']

Could use another top 4 dman AND a 3rd line C to really solidify the roster.

I don’t think Reilly - OEL is going to work for long. Ideally we see something like :

Reilly - xxx
McCabe - Tanev
OEL - Hakanpaa
Benoit - Timmins

That’s a solid group heading into the playoffs assuming XXX is a solid partner for Reilly. Can we figure out a way to get Weegar or Anderson from the Flames? Is Parayko a guy that Berube liked?

Move that Kampf and Jarnkrok money.

 

[leafman101]

Hakanpaa was a really good top 4 D before the injury.