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OT: American Politics

I hope that it is Pete. No one is a better messenger than he is. Republicans aren’t going to vote for any Democrat so the fact that he is married to a man is irrelevant.
 
Tried to look at the most recent polls. These are all the polls i could find that have no data older than a week (i.e. started last friday at the earliest). That's enough time for a full 5 weekdays of news to filter through to voters after Biden stepped down.

Harris +5 (JUL 29-31 RMG)
Trump +1 (JUL 28-30 Big Data)
Harris +2 (JUL 27-30 YouGov)
Harris +4 (JUL 27-30 Civiqs)
Harris +2 (JUL 29-29 Redfield)
Harris +1 (JUL 26-29 American Pulse)
Harris +1 (JUL 26-28 Ipsos)
Trump +4 (JUL 26-28 HarrisX)
Harris +1 (JUL 26-28 M.Consult)
Harris +5 (JUL 26-28 Emerson)
Harris +3 (JUL 26-28 Leger)
EVEN +0 (JUL 26-27 Florida Atlantic)


So that's a +1.6 average for Kamala.
 
thehabhater said:
I hope that it is Pete. No one is a better messenger than he is. Republicans aren’t going to vote for any Democrat so the fact that he is married to a man is irrelevant.
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not republican voters i'm worried about it's the white working class male Biden voters i want to consolidate. I think Walz does that the best.

i don't really see what Pete brings to the ticket tbh.
 
Yeah, Buttigieg is an assassin on Fox and I love him, but unfortunately there are swing voters and others that won’t like him for silly reasons. Also Harris rightly wants someone with high level executive experience and that just points to one of the governors. Walz or Beshear would both broaden the appeal of the ticket, IMO, and both are the “ready one day 1” types

Buttigieg should have a big role in the administration though. Maybe Secretary of State.
 
zeke said:
Tried to look at the most recent polls. These are all the polls i could find that have no data older than a week (i.e. started last friday at the earliest). That's enough time for a full 5 weekdays of news to filter through to voters after Biden stepped down.

Harris +5 (JUL 29-31 RMG) 2.3
Trump +1 (JUL 28-30 Big Data) NR
Harris +2 (JUL 27-30 YouGov) 2.9
Harris +4 (JUL 27-30 Civiqs) 2.5
Harris +2 (JUL 29-29 Redfield) 1.8
Harris +1 (JUL 26-29 American Pulse) NR
Harris +1 (JUL 26-28 Ipsos) 2.8
Trump +4 (JUL 26-28 HarrisX) 1.6
Harris +1 (JUL 26-28 M.Consult) 1.8
Harris +5 (JUL 26-28 Emerson) 2.9
Harris +3 (JUL 26-28 Leger) 2.0
EVEN +0 (JUL 26-27 Florida Atlantic) 2.0


So that's a +1.6 average for Kamala.
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If you throw out anything from a polling firm with lower than a 2.5, that's Kamala +3
 
manny said:
Yeah, Buttigieg is an assassin on Fox and I love him, but unfortunately there are swing voters and others that won’t like him for silly reasons. Also Harris rightly wants someone with high level executive experience and that just points to one of the governors. Walz or Beshear would both broaden the appeal of the ticket, IMO, and both are the “ready one day 1” types

Buttigieg should have a big role in the administration though. Maybe Secretary of State.
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i agree with all of this and i'll say re: shapiro... i think i've heard at least 4 things have come out about shapiro that make me more hesitant to pick him than walshear and none of them are even related to israel at all.
 
zeke said:
not republican voters i'm worried about it's the white working class male Biden voters i want to consolidate. I think Walz does that the best.

i don't really see what Pete brings to the ticket tbh.
Click to expand...
He brings messaging. He goes on Fox and kicks ass. While men who watch Fox won’t give him a vote, women will listen. Current Democratic governors might be better off messaging to their own states.

Men who watch Fox are too busy crashing Grindr servers

Women, the largest voting block, and young kids voting for the first time don’t give a fuck that Pete is happily married to a man. That he He is a proud parent is a bigger deal.

It might be an issue if he was “camp” but he isn’t.
 
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imo it should be a 2 horse race

- Walz has had the best performance among the field....by a lot....and created the single best piece of attack messaging against Trump that any Democrat has yet achieved in almost a decade.

- Shapiro is the popular governor of a state the Dems need to lock down badly, that they're currently a toss up in


That's the calculus imo.
 
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still think it comes down to:

Shapiro (Pennsylvania)
Welz (super likability, progressive)
Kelly (astronaut, centrist, Arizona)

Beshear hanging around because his name keeps coming up, and he'd be a good option, but not as good as the other three.

Penn is so damn important and I do like Shapiro but there is a lot of potential baggage there, and agree with Zeke that he does have that city slicker vibe.

I'm fine with all these guys but have come around to Welz as well. Just checks so many boxes. Also not counting out Kelly but he's been way less visible than the others.
 
thehabhater said:
He brings messaging. He goes on Fox and kicks ass. While men who watch Fox won’t give him a vote, women will listen. Current Democratic governors might be better off messaging to their own states.

Men who watch Fox are too busy crashing Grindr servers

Women, the largest voting block, and young kids voting for the first time don’t give a fuck that Pete is happily married to a man. He a proud parent is a bigger deal.
Click to expand...

yeah he's great at that but he'll be doing that anyways, no?
 
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