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OT: American Politics

zeke said:
Fair.

But the markets regularly setting new highs is the normal median expectation, not an outlier in need of correction, no?




Which "rally" exactly?
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QQQ went up like 100% in a year and a half. SPY around 60%. And basically straight up the entire time. A decently sized pullback at this stage is healthy imo. It won't be seen that way by the right, but it's not abnormal.

Eventually bulls get tired, and the chart pattern you see is a "rising wedge" which is code for "bulls have ran out of gas for now." And those can often break bearish. And it's often fueled by some piece of news that may be fairly inconsequential. The headlines make it seem like it was because of that news but it's just as much because of where we were in the cycle and the market is waiting for some excuse to dump it. We go through some pain, we stabilize, the RSI gets "reset" and we go up again. Rinse. Repeat.
 
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Preston said:
QQQ went up like 100% in a year and a half. SPY around 60%. And basically straight up the entire time. A decently sized pullback at this stage is healthy imo. It won't be seen that way by the right, but it's not abnormal.

Eventually bulls get tired, and the chart pattern you see is a "rising wedge" which is code for "bulls have ran out of gas for now." And those can often break bearish. And it's often fueled by some piece of news that may be fairly inconsequential. The headlines make it seem like it was because of that news but it's just as much because of where we were in the cycle and the market is waiting for some excuse to dump it. We go through some pain, we stabilize, the RSI gets "reset" and we go up again. Rinse. Repeat.
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Well put. George Soros’s theory of reflexivity is also helpful.
 
Preston said:
QQQ went up like 100% in a year and a half. SPY around 60%. And basically straight up the entire time.
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Any chance you're using a perhaps irrational trough as a baseline tho?

Is there a reason to think these should be at a similar level now as they were 2.5yrs ago?

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CH1 said:
Well put. George Soros’s theory of reflexivity is also helpful.
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The moment one realizes it's all just a game of flashing numbers based around human psychology is the moment one becomes an astute investor. I let the pundits analyze macroeconomic activity. I only care about sentiment and public perception.
 
zeke said:
Any chance you're using a perhaps irrational trough as a baseline tho?

Is there a reason to think these should be at a similar level now as they were 2.5yrs ago?

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View attachment 21493
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Yes. 2021 was a ridiculous bubble. Every piece of shit stock on earth went to the moon. That was way scarier for me than where we are today. Capital was free, money was flowing, the worse the stock, the harder it blasted. That was fairytale shit.

But beyond that, it's not about that even. I use the 2022 baseline because we've shot straight up from there. A breather isn't a bad thing. The RSI got crazy extended, bulls got tired. A pullback just made sense from a chart perspective.
 
Preston said:
The moment one realizes it's all just a game of flashing numbers based around human psychology is the moment one becomes an astute investor. I let the pundits analyze macroeconomic activity. I only care about sentiment and public perception.
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Exactly, don’t expect the market to be rational
 
Preston said:
Yes. 2021 was a ridiculous bubble. Every piece of shit stock on earth went to the moon. That was way scarier for me than where we are today. Capital was free, money was flowing, the worse the stock, the harder it blasted. That was fairytale shit.

But beyond that, it's not about that even. I use the 2022 baseline because we've shot straight up from there. A breather isn't a bad thing. The RSI got crazy extended, bulls got tired. A pullback just made sense from a chart perspective.
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So you think that the 2023 levels being similar to 2020 levels was rational?
 
zeke said:
So you think that the 2023 levels being similar to 2020 levels was rational?
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We're speaking different languages. I don't think any of this has to be rational nor do I even think about these things because it doesn't typically apply. When the indexes are as extended as they were prior to this dip, they tend to pull back. All throughout history. So yes I felt a pullback was a highly probable outcome. Maybe a correction, maybe a bear market. I don't know that part or the timing.
 
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