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OT: American Politics

LeafGm said:
I feel like hopium about Florida or Texas turning blue is a charliebrownfootball.gif-type situation that comes up every election now.

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it ever happens, but until then I’ll continue to believe there’s no chance in hell it does.
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Florida is more legit to hope for than Texas IMO.

But sadly the reason Texas has no hope is largely due to Abbott, Paxton, and the sheer volume of fuckery.

Florida has gone blue not that long ago... pretty sure Obama won it twice...

and, don't underestimate how hated Tiny D and his pseudo-fascist policies are.
 
My guess, as opposed to prediction, is that one or two red states will flip owing to a recruitment of new voters, and angry women ( and men) voting for women's health care.
 
Wayward DP said:
Florida is more legit to hope for than Texas IMO.

But sadly the reason Texas has no hope is largely due to Abbott, Paxton, and the sheer volume of fuckery.

Florida has gone blue not that long ago... pretty sure Obama won it twice...

and, don't underestimate how hated Tiny D and his pseudo-fascist policies are.
Click to expand...


Yeah, looking back at the history, since 1980, Bill Clinton won Florida once and Obama won it twice.

So Florida turning blue isn’t quite as pie-in-the-sky as Texas. But I still won’t get my hopes up. Especially not when Meatball Ron won his re-election by a 20-point landslide while cosplaying as a hard-MAGA dipshit.
 
LeafGm said:
I feel like hopium about Florida or Texas turning blue is a charliebrownfootball.gif-type situation that comes up every election now.

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it ever happens, but until then I’ll continue to believe there’s no chance in hell it does.
Click to expand...

Obama won Florida by 3 points in 08 though. Its not exactly a permanent republican stronghold like Texas has been for decades.
 
Wayward DP said:
Florida is more legit to hope for than Texas IMO.

But sadly the reason Texas has no hope is largely due to Abbott, Paxton, and the sheer volume of fuckery.

Florida has gone blue not that long ago... pretty sure Obama won it twice...

and, don't underestimate how hated Tiny D and his pseudo-fascist policies are.
Click to expand...
11, 067,456 people voted in Florida in 2020. The difference was 371,686 at the top of the ballot, with 101,000 votes being wasted at the bottom.

This is doable.
 
I think I’m in between this argument.

I think Texas is pie in the sky. I think Florida is not pie in the sky but it’ll end up red still.
 
hockeylover said:
I think I’m in between this argument.

I think Texas is pie in the sky. I think Florida is not pie in the sky but it’ll end up red still.
Click to expand...
I'd probably still campaign hard (Dems) if for nothing else to force the GOP to divert resources here (so they can't be used in other battleground states). Don't do what Hillary did in 2016. Campaign extensively everywhere where you have a reasonable chance.
 
Zeke's Averages of the Averages

I've dropped Virginia, Florida, and Texas off this chart for now because on average they're all just on or outside the margin of error, and also because they all have so few polls that some of the averaging sites don't even have a number for them at this point, and clearly the pollsters don't think they're too worthwhile to poll much.

There's actually been some major movement here at the state level, but i'm not sure that has anything to do with a convention bump - a lot of polls dropping right now are pollsters that haven't done any polling since the Biden/Harris switcheroo, so many of these are first time Harris polls. Also, the polling averages are slowly but finally clearing out all the pre-Biden/Harris switcheroo data, which should mean we're finally getting a clearer picture.

There has been some tightening in the WI/MI/PA firewall towards trump, which is annoying, but not yet worrying. But the bigger changes have been in NV and GA, which have both swung significantly to Harris over the last few days. AZ and NC have both had smaller moves towards dead even, in opposite directions.

Basically the newer polling has reduced some of the safety in the bluer swing states, but has opened up many more paths to victory in the redder swing states. Georgia is the most intriguing one to me because it's big enough to be a realistic alternative to 270 if PA doesn't go blue - because even getting both NV and AZ wouldn't be enough to counteract PA going red.

Note: Nate won't update his with today's new polls until this afternoon, and i'll update this again then. I imagine his new numbers will probably push GA into blue.

And of course, RCP is doing the most shenanigans here, holding onto old trump-favorable data as along as possible. Especially in Pennsylvania as they know how important that state is, and they know as soon as it shows Harris in the lead they have to change all their maps to show Harris winning potus.


Screenshot 2024-08-29 112510.png
 
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