OT: American Politics

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/atrupar/status/1852017841253360125

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1852088063884673519

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1852108853602594894

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/BrentTerhune/status/1851978646115782690


View: https://x.com/MattBinder/status/1852039618033533356

 

[Pwner]

If true, fuck Stein and her Russian Handler!


View: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1852130961774834052?t=CMo1CJVI37lPzh40oaUqqQ&s=19

 

[Pwner]

50/50, but Harris wins the EC.


View: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1852108571095322964?t=LZFU9B9y0afdohdEb_wh2A&s=19

 

[axlsalinger]

View: https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1852126637673861383?t=45QazVMzBJBkQQsqTfE9tw&s=19


View: https://x.com/TheRickWilson/status/1852126156872462446?t=NngLF1I7PixRbDNeiYTUEA&s=19

 

[FlyGuy]

View: https://x.com/kyleclark/status/1852075471254753585?s=46&t=jO26Xs3gATFmVvs8KlHlPg

Unbelievable clusterfuck

 

[Pwner]

Hmmmmm... Nate.... hmmmmm....


View: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1852134609112220056?t=9V1o9tJG5FZHKTPOFcgUpQ&s=19

 

[Wayward DP]

View: https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1852126637673861383?t=45QazVMzBJBkQQsqTfE9tw&s=19


View: https://x.com/TheRickWilson/status/1852126156872462446?t=NngLF1I7PixRbDNeiYTUEA&s=19

Does he own a cat?

 

[Pwner]

View: https://x.com/tbonier/status/1852120348738621653?t=awAHnEDlD7vZi6lyH1GeDg&s=19

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

If true, fuck Stein and her Russian Handler!


View: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1852130961774834052?t=CMo1CJVI37lPzh40oaUqqQ&s=19

You mean her "pimp handler"

 

[Pwner]

View: https://x.com/Inspectah8/status/1852140075456327905?t=VW1UgAPOOcyu4IYCvd9Mjg&s=19

 

[Pwner]

But why? Nate said he has a 60% chance of winning the state?


View: https://x.com/Scaramucci/status/1852137993064079740?t=43rPCvMEK1qmoGq3GUb8WA&s=19

 

[thehabhater]

Unbelievable clusterfuck

Don’t be hard on yourself

 

[zeke]

But why? Nate said he has a 60% chance of winning the state?


View: https://x.com/Scaramucci/status/1852137993064079740?t=43rPCvMEK1qmoGq3GUb8WA&s=19

60/40 odds is pretty much a tossup.

 

[thehabhater]

60/40 odds is pretty much a tossup.

Since the Republicans are paying for bullshit polls, colour this as Harris leads

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/whstancil/status/1852101941393764433

 

[zeke]

View: https://x.com/Trevesand/status/1852126578857091178

 

[MindzEye]

Hmmmmm... Nate.... hmmmmm....


View: https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1852134609112220056?t=9V1o9tJG5FZHKTPOFcgUpQ&s=19

I'm only going to look at PA and the most recent Atlas poll (Trump +2) that has the highest weighting in Nate's math.

But a quick crosstabs dig:

- Yeah, if Kamala only wins black voters 67-24 (92-7 Biden in 2020), and Hispanics 56-42 (69-27 Biden....hey, maybe Puerto Rican's don't actually like Puerto Rico, right?).....then she's in big trouble in PA.

- Has Kamala winning women 50.5-47.5...yeah, huge trouble if this is true. Biden was 55-44 in 2020.

So yeah, if Kamala has lost support among women v Biden 2020, and lost huge support among black and hispanic voters v Biden 2020 then Trump is probably threading the needle and winning.

Brb, I need to figure out how to short that on polymarket.