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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
The key questions for me going forward, in order of importance are:

1) Is Europe up to the challenge of pulling the rest of the "western" world together in coalition. They also have a far right problem of their own, and I'd argue, politics that are more susceptible to bouts of temporary lunacy than the US system is. Are we going to be holding our breath every French and German election for the next forever? Russia is an animating existential threat now, but what about after it's collapse and defanging?

2) What actually is China, especially post Xi China? He's 71 yrs old, and despite his best efforts will not be here forever. Are they just a regional power whose expansionism is based solely on cultural factors? Or is the social cohesion stuff just cover fire for a military expansionist regime that hasn't stretched it's legs yet?

3) What does a Post Trump America look like? Has Trump let the authoritarian genie out of the bottle that the GOP has no interest in putting back in (I've argued for over a decade now that they've intended to move to a single party system like in China) or will this fuckshow wake enough of the country up that they're able to come back from the brink? Redemption tour America won't be blindly trusted the way Post WW2 America is, but it can still be a functioning western ally in most senses.
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1) Trump unhinged might hurt Euro alt right the way he hurt our PP

2) unknown. But without a strong US, I fear China may be emboldened to flex some muscle

3) I think US electorate bounces back. Trump and his GOP enablers overplayed their hand in a way the non MAGA GOP voter foolishly did not anticipate. The world will be different regardless
 
CH1 said:
1) Trump unhinged might hurt Euro alt right the way he hurt our PP
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This and a Russia collapse are what I think lessens the risk there tbh. A fair amount of the Euro far right is Kremlin funded/aided. When the regime falls, which I think is a when and not an if in the short to mid term, that funding and support goes away. The true euro skeptic anti social cunts won't disappear, but they wont have Kremlin money helping to amplify their efforts.

CH1 said:
2) unknown. But without a strong US, I fear China may be emboldened to flex some muscle
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A weak US is still a strong country, and I think that even these jerk offs seem to grasp that Taiwan is existential for them until further notice. My concern is more medium to long term with Asia in a weak US world, post Xi. I assume that chip production will have developed/diversified enough that one small island off the coast of china won't send us back to the 60's if it's blown up.

There is a natural ring of strong adversaries to hem in China regardless of US intervention in the region though, but things like invading Vietnam or the Philippines is theoretical within the scope of the 2040 CCP. Also kind of lines up with the history of the region. Territorial integrity hasn't exactly been sacrosanct in that hood.

CH1 said:
3) I think US electorate bounces back. Trump and his GOP enablers overplayed their hand in a way the non MAGA GOP voter foolishly did not anticipate. The world will be different regardless
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Yeah, despite my surliness that where my money lies. Sanity will eventually prevail (or at least what passes for sanity in the US) and a diminished USA will start it's redemption tour in a world that has rewired so that it never needs America again. Countries will be happy to trade with them and happy to have America back in various clubs, but it will be a long time before America sits at the head of the table, if ever.
 
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