obama needs to do two things to secure a 2012 victory:
(1) put together a coherent economic policy that results in (near immediate) real job growth. easier said than done but the people need to see some real results. job creation has fared better than the unemployment figure tells us, but that isn't good enough. unemployment has to drop.
(2) start selling americans on the success of his policies. mindzeye, you pointed out earlier in the week that health care reform has already resulted in some spending cuts; the people have to hear about that. he has to highlight the fact that the TARP spending did help to stabilize the economy when it looked to be in peril, that it did preserve (and in fact create some) jobs, that it did prevent catastrophic meltdown. he needs to point out the success in libya: successfully ousting a regime without a single american casualty. he has to highlight successes in afghanistan after his petraeus appointment. he got osama, too.
the truth is that he has had some significant legislative achievements, but hasn't done a good job of selling them to the public. there were, of course, a few big missteps as well, but on those counts obama is going to have to really lay the blame at the feet of congress (mainly on debt ceiling issue). in the next 12 months he needs to show himself as a confident and assertive leader, and demonstrate how he has helped the country and the economy. he has made it really difficult for himself because he has expended practically all of his political capital. but the achievements are there, he just needs to sell them.
of course, none of that might matter in a campaign against romney. imo, he's the only republican candidate with a legitimate shot to beat obama. let's face it -- the economy is still going to be in bad shape come november 2012 -- and romney can very easily sell himself as the sort of wall street type who can rescue the nation from the financial abyss. he can point to the political leadership experience in massachusetts. he also has shown enough centrist tendencies (maybe even if he disavows some) to keep the moderates happy.
really, it should be an easy selection for repubs but unfortunately too many loons are on the saddle. if they push through pArry (i don't think bachmann has a chance) they will get slaughtered. to be honest, i'm not even sure if pArry could hold down 40% of the vote (i know bachmann couldn't). romney, however, is a good candidate on all fronts, and would give them their best shot at victory.