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OT: American Politics

axlsalinger said:
The connection between education and liberalism in men is also pretty funny. Maybe you guys should read a book
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This whole thing of theirs comes from one poorly designed study last year where a bunch of young men were tested for t levels, then given a survey about political affiliation. After the survey they were given a fucking epic dose of a TRT product (something like 5-10x the clinical daily dosage) and the following day re-surveyed. Among those who were weakly affiliated to democrats, there was some movement towards republicans within the second survey. There was no movements among firmly democrat affiliated, or firmly republican affiliated from the first survey. Of course, this was taken by the right wing muppets as right wing men are giga chads, left wing men are beta cucks.

So, so many problems with the study though

- No other dosages tested, just a two day study with an epic, Ronnie fucking Coleman screaming "LIGHT WEIGHT BABEEEEE" beside god's squat rack level of supplemented testosterone added to already healthy T level young men

- Not a single confounding cause was harmed in this study. Seriously, they didn't even evaluate potential other causes for a small rightward shift.

- Didn't evaluate whether the second day's T levels were possible naturally. So all they might have poorly proven is that someone on way too much test trends conservative. They also trend towards low libido, low sperm count, & heart attacks at 40 yrs old...which I assume is traditional masculinity now or something?
 
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They interviewed the polymarket whale that has bet tens of millions on Trump and moved the market single handedly. He sounds like a very sophisticated shark with inside info! Or probably the opposite of that.


Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the “shy Trump voter effect”—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

Théo admitted feeling nervous. He voiced confidence that Trump would win—assessing his odds of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but fretted that his bets could be thrown off by something unexpected.
 
Preston said:
They interviewed the polymarket whale that has bet tens of millions on Trump and moved the market single handedly. He sounds like a very sophisticated shark with inside info! Or probably the opposite of that.


Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the “shy Trump voter effect”—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

Théo admitted feeling nervous. He voiced confidence that Trump would win—assessing his odds of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but fretted that his bets could be thrown off by something unexpected.
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The blind leading the fucking blind.

icegif-309.gif
 
Preston said:
They interviewed the polymarket whale that has bet tens of millions on Trump and moved the market single handedly. He sounds like a very sophisticated shark with inside info! Or probably the opposite of that.


Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the “shy Trump voter effect”—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

Théo admitted feeling nervous. He voiced confidence that Trump would win—assessing his odds of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but fretted that his bets could be thrown off by something unexpected.
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thing is it sure looks like most of the smart whales have already cashed out.




View: https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1852083429665325277
 
Preston said:
Yup smart money rides the uptrend, no matter how inexplicable it may be. Like those who rode the djt stock after it moved 300+% from lows. Smart money rides it up and cashes out. Down 25+% since. Same idea.
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Gordo loaded the **** up on blue positions before the rug pull. Not betting a lot on the overall winner but got huge discounts on NH, VA, MN, ME, pop vote, some Senate races, etc.
 
axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1852421106155540596
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I mean, this is a hell of an indictment of their methods.

This is what weighting is for. Your survey comes in a bit goofy looking, as long as you're using consistent weighting methodology, you're good. Do you have your demos right? How do your results look when you do RV + Recall weighting vs LV + demo weighting? Where are your goofy cross tabs, has there maybe been a shift in public sentiment you weren't expecting?

Nah...we'll just switch methodologies until we find one that provides the results we think are less risky.

And these are the "real" pollsters doing it. 70% of the industry are GOP bullshit factories.
 
MindzEye said:
I mean, this is a hell of an indictment of their methods.

This is what weighting is for. Your survey comes in a bit goofy looking, as long as you're using consistent weighting methodology, you're good. Do you have your demos right? How do your results look when you do RV + Recall weighting vs LV + demo weighting? Where are your goofy cross tabs, has their maybe been a shift in public sentiment you weren't expecting?

Nah...we'll just switch methodologies until we find one that provides the results we think are less risky.

And these are the "real" pollsters doing it. 70% of the industry are GOP bullshit factories.
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well.....no matter what "method" they choose, they're forced to make assumptions somewhere.

it's just that there's way fewer "safe" assumptions demographically than there used to be.
 
MindzEye said:
This whole thing of theirs comes from one poorly designed study last year where a bunch of young men were tested for t levels, then given a survey about political affiliation. After the survey they were given a fucking epic dose of a TRT product (something like 5-10x the clinical daily dosage) and the following day re-surveyed. Among those who were weakly affiliated to democrats, there was some movement towards republicans within the second survey. There was no movements among firmly democrat affiliated, or firmly republican affiliated from the first survey. Of course, this was taken by the right wing muppets as right wing men are giga chads, left wing men are beta cucks.

So, so many problems with the study though

- No other dosages tested, just a two day study with an epic, Ronnie fucking Coleman screaming "LIGHT WEIGHT BABEEEEE" beside god's squat rack level of supplemented testosterone added to already healthy T level young men

- Not a single confounding cause was harmed in this study. Seriously, they didn't even evaluate potential other causes for a small rightward shift.

- Didn't evaluate whether the second day's T levels were possible naturally. So all they might have poorly proven is that someone on way too much test trends conservative. They also trend towards low libido, low sperm count, & heart attacks at 40 yrs old...which I assume is traditional masculinity now or something?
Click to expand...
A study like that, where one attempts to guage political affiliation by the amount of jizz in your balls or the like, is flawed from the get go. JD Vance is MAGA, and his balls are in a jar on Peter Theil's nightstand.

The best way to measure the liklihood of a guy being a Trumper is pretty simple. Just see how many boxes get checked:

White
Entitled
High school dropout
History of family inbreeding
Lives in a double wide
Lives in mom's basement.
Listens to Rogan and/or Tate
UFC fan
Has neck tattoos
Single shooter video game enthusiast
Incel/virgin
Porn addict, especially violent porn
Underemployed or unemployed
No critical thinking acumen

Any, all.or a combination of these indicate the strong possibility that the subject is 2 things:

1) a fucking imbecile, and
2) a Trump/MAGA choade
 
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zeke said:
well.....no matter what "method" they choose, they're forced to make assumptions somewhere.

it's just that there's way fewer "safe" assumptions demographically than there used to be.
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Sure, but the assumptions are in the sampling models. Similar demos to 2020 or 2022? More or fewer black voters in Georgia than 2020? First time voter turnout consistent with recent elections or no?

Cohn isn't talking about them doing that though. They're talking about getting unexpected results after they've applied their LV formulas to the survey responses and then start reverse engineering samples to make it make sense to their biases. For everything bad I've said about the polling industry over the last 4 months, this is actually worse. They're not even making bad sampling assumptions (which is the drum I've been beating). They're massaging the sampling assumptions after the fact for fuck sakes. Pure manipulation.

*edit* the data scientists don't seem to be having the same fear and ego driven issues right now, just the "professional" pollsters.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
A study like that, where one attempts to guage political affiliation by the amount of jazz in your balls or the like, is flawed from the get go. JD Vance is MAGA, and his balls are in a jar on Peter Theil's nightstand.

The best way to measure the liklihood of a guy being a Trumper is pretty simple. Just see how many boxes get checked:

White
Entitled
High school dropout
History of family inbreeding
Lives in a double wide
Lives in mom's basement.
Listens to Rogan and/or Tate
UFC fan
Has neck tattoos
Single shooter video game enthusiast
Incel/virgin
Porn addict, specially violent porn
Underemployed or unemployed
No critical thinking acumen

Any, all.or a combination of these indicate the strong possibility that the subject is 2 things:

1) a fucking imbecile, and
2) a Trump/MAGA choade
Click to expand...
Wait until they find out that MAGA wants to get rid of pornography.
 
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