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OT: American Politics

Yesterday there was reason to cover shorts or hop along for the bear market spike but there’s no reason for institutional shops to put long term money to work at these prices.
 
Does Bill Ackman continue to suck orange cock? Or does he flip flop back to panicking/spiralling?

If he chooses option 1, we know he sold yesterday. Stay tuned!
 
Interesting. Extreme fear dial at CNN is 6. Most of the week it's been at 2 or 3. but market drop is also the highest 5% 7%.

So people are slightly less fearful but market has seen its biggest drop!
 
Interesting. Extreme fear dial at CNN is 6. Most of the week it's been at 2 or 3. but market drop is also the highest 5% 7%.

So people are slightly less fearful but market has seen its biggest drop!
Slightly less fear knowing that trump does have a threshold that will force his hand (I.e. a recession is ok but not a depression!). But no reason to be anything but extremely scared! He can't just pull a lever that says "depression canceled" like he thinks he can.
 


The tariff pause doesn't change anything fundamentally.

- The US remains an unreliable trade partner and former trade allies are working behind the scenes to significantly reduce their reliance on US customers
- US government debt is significantly riskier than it's been in at least our lifetimes
- The markets haven't priced in the new reality of a USA that doesn't respect the rule of law
- The impacts of the China/USA trade war are just, just starting to be felt right now but it's going to take months for the full impacts to show themselves
- Europe hasn't started to really stretch their legs yet, but have made the unified decision to do so

There is going to be capital flight from the US and one of the dirty secrets of the US economy, is that they can't afford it. As I've said a pile of times over the last year, the US economy is as large and powerful as it is because "we" have allowed it to. The more or less unified economies of the world have tacitly agreed that the US was the best steward of the world economy and pumped our investment dollars into it.
 
This guys stupid to smart posting ratio us off the charts. Maybe the dumbest rich person theis side of trump

I saw a ~1 hr talk of his 4-5 years ago, back when people in the VC community spoke of him in hushed tones because of what a visionary genius he was, and it was pretty crystal clear after listening to him that he was just a wealthy moron.
 
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