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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

In the end, it doesn’t matter when government leaders decide to “open the economy”. People will only resume their normal activities when they feel safe

 
We're basically doing enough to keep the numbers relatively stable, but not enough to decrease them. More action is needed if we actually want to cut down on cases.. Although it is possible that cutting down cases is not priority, and the priority is only ensure hospitals do not get over-run. If that's the case, the stability possibly accomplishes that.
 
the graph is scary - only Manitoba is really flattening the curve. ON and QC are still going straight up.

Check out the map breakdown on this page - and hover over each province - look at the graph also shown. There is also a nice 'play' option to see how fast this has spread day over day.

 
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the graph is scary - only Manitoba is really flattening the curve. ON and QC are still going straight up.

Check out the map breakdown on this page - and hover over each province - look at the graph also shown. There is also a nice 'play' option to see how fast this has spread day over day.


Total cases is a bad way of depicting the curve though.

This is just my quick and dirty tracking chart. Total cases per day on the left, days since we first hit 5 cases in a day on the bottom. Totals in blue, 7 day simple moving average in orange

1587053806701.png

There was a pretty big inflection point around days 25-27 where it looks like the social distancing measures started having an effect. Our trajectory up until then was a doubling of cases per day roughly ever 5-6 days, which is ugly. Since that inflection, we've had 10-12 days worth of data that shows a doubling period (assuming this trend stayed stable for long enough, it likely won't) of roughly 80 days.

Total cases need to be shown on a logarythmic scale to get a good sense of the curve flattening.
 
the graph is scary - only Manitoba is really flattening the curve. ON and QC are still going straight up.

Check out the map breakdown on this page - and hover over each province - look at the graph also shown. There is also a nice 'play' option to see how fast this has spread day over day.


flattening the curve is more about slowing down the increase

look at slide 15 here
you want a U shape not a V shape
the longer away the peak the better and lower it will be
you want a slow build of cases over a long period of time

alberta is not expecting the flat part until mid may

you can also look at slide 6 to see how canada is doing better than most countries
slide 7 shows the provinces

of course with all of this testing is a big variable

alberta is going to skyrocket soon because we are now testing everybody with symptoms
 
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Total cases is a bad way of depicting the curve though.

This is just my quick and dirty tracking chart. Total cases per day on the left, days since we first hit 5 cases in a day on the bottom. Totals in blue, 7 day simple moving average in orange

View attachment 6131

There was a pretty big inflection point around days 25-27 where it looks like the social distancing measures started having an effect. Our trajectory up until then was a doubling of cases per day roughly ever 5-6 days, which is ugly. Since that inflection, we've had 10-12 days worth of data that shows a doubling period (assuming this trend stayed stable for long enough, it likely won't) of roughly 80 days.

Total cases need to be shown on a logarythmic scale to get a good sense of the curve flattening.

yes
this
 
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