Sunday before Christmas edition of M.e's early draft ranking and analysis
#1 - Cooper Flagg: He's going to go #1, and I would probably take him #1 if I was running our draft table and the ping pong balls bouced right. But...I don't know if dude is going to be more than a secondary offensive player on a winning team. He's not talentless offensively, but it's very meat and potatoes without freak physical tools. Open 3's, mid range face up to a one dribble pull up type stuff. Will stat stuff though as he's a plus rebounder, average or better passing IQ, defends extremely well. He's not what we need, but he would still make us better. You're buying the very high floor here. He's a NBA starter, maybe immediately.
NBA Comps: A better version of Andrei Kirilenko, Scottie Barnes with better D but less passing vision, 17-20 ppg Draymond.
#2 - Dylan Harper: The only other guy to really consider at the #1 pick. The best offensive player in this draft. Great size for a lead guard, does everything a lead guard is supposed to do and does it pretty well. Good playmaker, rebounds and defends. No real weaknesses. Elite when he gets downhill, my only reservation right now is that I don't see the 3pt shooting bag most elite NBA guards have (step backs, pull ups, etc).
NBA Comps: College/Early career James Harden, 6'6 Jalen Brunson, SGA
#3 - Tre Johnson: Best 3 level scorer in the class. This is a very aggressive ranking of him, but the ceiling is as a legit #1 offensive option. Plus athlete without being elite, great handle, great shot maker. Posted about him a page or two ago with a video.
NBA Comps: Demar with 25+ foot range, a 6'6 version of Cam Thomas
#4 - Egor Demin: Huge euro shooting guard at 6'9. Might have the athleticism to stick at the position and not be moved to SF, at least for a few years. Does everything pretty well but I don't see a standout skill other than his size mismatch potential at SG. Russian but played pro in Spain and has that same kind of thing about his game that we're seeing from most of these long international perimeter players coming over the last few years (Rischarer, Buzelis, Salaun, Giddey, Avdija). Well coached and 'looks' professional, but they tend to struggle with the length and athleticism of NBA defences and become system players. High floor, moderate ceiling.
NBA Comps: Giddey with better dating habits and a jumper.
#5 - Airious 'Ace' Bailey: I'll be at least moderately surprised if he stays this high on my board by the time the draft rolls around. I can't remember being this disappointed in an elite high school prospect. The highlight reels look impressive because he takes and makes really difficult looking shots. Then you watch some more and you realize it's because his shot selection is atrocious and he has the worst tunnel vision I've seen out of a top of the lottery prospect, maybe ever. It's super easy to squint and see a KD clone but it doesn't hold up. The handle is sloppy and most times he touches the ball the possession ends with him tossing up a low % shot, a complete black hole where offensive efficiency goes to die. Now, he makes more of them than he has a right to because there's obvious physical gifts at work here. But he's going to have to be super, super coachable to learn how to play the NBA game if he's not going to be an outright bust imo. Keeping him ranked this high because the physical gifts are so fucking obvious and you can't learn those.
NBA Comps: 5% chance he's a poor man's KD. 15% chance he works hard, listens to his coaches and turns into something like Rashard Lewis or Harrison Barnes. 80% cooked and out of the league after his rookie deal finishes or bounces around for a bit like Cam Reddish.
#6 - Kasparas Jakucionis: High IQ modern Euro combo guard with good size but limited athleticism. Just to keep it lithuanian for a second, what if you gave Domantas Sabonis a deadly jumper but made him 6'6? There's always a question with guards who can do everything at the NCAA level but have limited athleticism. He might, might be able to stick as a big PG though which changes that math a bit. If Bailey doesn't show signs of figuring his shit out in the next month, KJ moves up to the 5.
Edgecombe is currently my #7, but without a jumper I don't care how athletic someone is anymore. Traore is interesting as well at that slot.
The 100 ft view of the draft is this. This is a pretty good but just pretty good draft. Not as good as 2023 at the top (Wemby), not as deep through the lottery as 2022 or 2021 either most likely. Probably something similar to 2020 where there's a few all stars near the top (Ant and Lamelo) and a bag of okay rotation players. I think any of the top 3 have a chance to be perennial fringe all stars or better (and in that order of likelihood), after that it gets a lot dicier. There's always some weirdo surprise all stars sprinkled through out the 1st round, but that doesn't really help us if we're picking top 5.