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OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread

A quick Raptors analytic update, with a quick refresher. On box plus minus style stats, 0.0 is considered a low end starter or high rotation bench player type guy, for example, at the moment 0.0 would be a 75th percentile player in the NBA, and there are 154 players with a 0.0 or better. The biggest difference between EPM and BPM is that BPM only takes this season into account and is telling you how impactful that player has been this season, just this season. EPM takes past performance into account along with current performance to predict how the player is going to play in the near future. So BPM is more volatile, but can help identify breakouts much easier than EPM, which needs a long stretch of play to make a significant impact upward or downward on their number

BPM/EPM

Scottie: 5.4/2.2
- BPM has loved Scottie long time in the past, and thinks he's in the early stages of an 3rd team All NBA type season. He's 13th in the league right now, ahead of Harden, Ant, Cade. He's 6th in DPM and 26th in OPM. EPM has him 50th at 2.2, but he's been moving up pretty quick for the past few weeks.

Quickley: 1.5/1.9
- EPM has always liked him. It has him as a 92nd percentile offensive player and his defensive metrics have gone back to 0.0ish on both metrics now which is a big improvement since he got here. Team D plays a big role in the defensive side of the metric imo. This is ~90th percentile NBA player range in both. I don't know how much more room there is for him to grow from here, but he's pretty good.

RJ: 0.9/-0.1
- Offensively both think fairly similarly of him, BPM likes him a bit better and have him around 90th percentile, EPM 85th percentile. Neither think much of his defensive work though BPM is suggesting that his defensive work this season is a bump up from previous. Similar to Quick, I think we're pretty close to maxing out his abilities here if this year's more efficient RJ is the real RJ. He works hard on D, he's just not very good at it, and he's not athletic enough to take advantage of how good he is at getting into the lane. He shoots a surprisingly meh shooting percentage around the rim despite seeming to get there whenever he wants.

Ingram: -0.5/+0.5
- Eye test looks sexy sometimes and he definitely brings the effortless half court shot making we've been missing but the metrics are a bit cranky with him for his shit outside shooting this season and below average defence. Coming back off of missing so much time, I'm fine with putting a pin in judging him as he works his way back in. He's not going to shoot 25% from 3 forever.

Jake: -0.1/+1.1
- Sucked to start the year so BPM is cranky with him, but EPM hasn't noticed it much yet. Classic Jake heater seems to be here as well. Not worried. He's always efficient offensively (if limited AF) and good if unspectacular defensively.

Mamu: 3.7/+0.3
- The type of analytics driven swing at a cheap bench player I've been dying for us to make year over year. He's not this good. I think he's good, but he's not super elite microwave off of the bench good. I'm excited about the positive dBPM this year though, his defence has always been the biggest thing keeping him off of the floor and it's been solidly above average this year. If this is him maturing into a more complete player, he could stick around for a while as a 7-9 guy on an ECF contender version of the Raptors.

Shead: -0.4/-04

CMB: -1.1/-2.0

Dick: -2.3/-1.8
 
In my mind a 0bpm/epm in fulltime starter's minutes and usage is probably an average starter.

the fact that guys might put up better numbers in lower minutes/usage doesn't make them better.
 
Davis is a guy you need to manage, both physically and emotionally and unless we look like a title contender come the trade i suspect he'll be a moody bitch around us.

I dont think i want to surrender the capital for him
 
axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/AaronBenRose/status/1990425460530933834?s=20
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I don't see us going into the tax for AD to be hurt half of the year. I don't think Bobby is in a rush to try to turn this into a winner at all costs right now, and given his experience with the first "We The North" era where we didn't get over the hump until we had replaced almost everything in the organization between the first year of success and the title, I think he gets that this is now a multi year project that is running in the right direction, but that there will be a lot of changes to go from here to true contending.

AD feels like a Knicks move. The bones for a big ass trade are there with a KAT for AD base. Something like KAT + Robinson for AD + Gafford
 
MindzEye said:
I don't see us going into the tax for AD to be hurt half of the year. I don't think Bobby is in a rush to try to turn this into a winner at all costs right now, and given his experience with the first "We The North" era where we didn't get over the hump until we had replaced almost everything in the organization between the first year of success and the title, I think he gets that this is now a multi year project that is running in the right direction, but that there will be a lot of changes to go from here to true contending.

AD feels like a Knicks move. The bones for a big ass trade are there with a KAT for AD base. Something like KAT + Robinson for AD + Gafford
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Lakers ( familiarity), Knicks, Heat, maybe someone like Detroit if they continue to stand atop the east.

We aren't a half season of Davis away of winning a title, no matter how bad the East is and i'd like our pick even in the late teens for this coming draft.
 
MyNameIsJonas said:
Lakers ( familiarity), Knicks, Heat, maybe someone like Detroit if they continue to stand atop the east.

We aren't a half season of Davis away of winning a title, no matter how bad the East is and i'd like our pick even in the late teens for this coming draft.
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The issue is the salary matching. 54 millie is a big nut to swing, and even harder to do mid season than in the summer.

Lakers could maybe patch together something with Rui-Vandy-Kleber but even that leaves them way short. Miami would struggle to do it now that Rozier is suspended (I don't think his contract can be traded while suspended). That was their salary balast to make a Wiggins-AD swap work. Now their only option is Bam/Herro + Wiggins and that isn't happening. Detroit could do something like 3 of Tobias/Levert/Stewart/Robinson if that can be made to work under the cap requirements. That leaves them thin as fuck on the bench but probably better when everyone's healthy (though they're a mirage right nowthat aren't any better than last year imo, so AD isn't an over the top move for them, but Pistons might Piston)

The only situations that make sense from a cap standpoint imo are:

Win Now

Knicks - KAT
Rockets - FVV + Adams + DFS

Front offices are desperate and does dumb things

Minnesota - Randle + McDaniels/Reid
Philly - Paul George + something valuable and cheap (Grimes, McCain, etc)
Phoenix - Jalen Green + Allen/Dillon
Atlanta - Trae + Kennard
 
LeafOfFaith said:
How are they just letting them get away with it? Nauseating.
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Because we're in the 2nd guilded age and fuck what you want, broke pleb bitch. He should be forced to sell (this is way worse than the previous owners daliance with racism)

1763417468230.png

It is entirely fucking outstanding though that this goofy prick completely wrecked his chances at winning a title through this whole fiasco though. Shai and Williams, the hyper elite backcourt pair that just won a chip were both in that trade (Williams in the form of a 1st rounder) traded for Podcast P. Amazing.
 
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