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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

MyNameIsJonas said:
Is Tyler Heinemann having like the best backup C season ever or something? Dude is hitting 400 with a 1000+ OPS and throwing out runners at an impressive clip.
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Feel like jays history is riddled with these kinds of guys. Like Old man version of randy myers.

I did like Heineman before this year as a guy who probably deserved more chwnces at backup job over the years. Defense was always there.
 
zeke said:
Feel like jays history is riddled with these kinds of guys. Like Old man version of randy myers.

I did like Heineman before this year as a guy who probably deserved more chwnces at backup job over the years. Defense was always there.
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Didnt John Buck ( is that his name) have a weirdo season?

Also isnt Randy Myers the asshole reliever and Greg MYers the 40 year old weirdo C?

Zaun did this too and he fooled himself and the team into thinking he was a starter
 
If we ever get healthy we could finally field an actual young and legit talented full lineup in AAA, without any real AAAA filler, aside from catcher.

CF Clase 23
RF Schreck 24
LF Roden 25
3B Martinez 23
SS Jimenez 24
2B Kasevich 24
1B Nunez 24
DH Wagner 26
C Bethancourt 33

UT Loperfido 26 / Tirotta 26
OF Pinango 23
IF Rivera 24
C Sanchez 28


Pretty much all of those guys are interesting enough to keep tabs on.
 
zeke said:
If we ever get healthy we could finally field an actual young and legit talented full lineup in AAA, without any real AAAA filler, aside from catcher.

CF Clase 23
RF Schreck 24
LF Roden 25
3B Martinez 23
SS Jimenez 24
2B Kasevich 24
1B Nunez 24
DH Wagner 26
C Bethancourt 33

UT Loperfido 26 / Tirotta 26
OF Pinango 23
IF Rivera 24
C Sanchez 28


Pretty much all of those guys are interesting enough to keep tabs on.
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Counterpoint: Roden is the only one on that list that projects as an everyday player. The rest are 40 or 45 FV prospects (ie AAAA or bench players). Is there actually another AAA team with objectively less upside?

But yeah, the Jays have been so starved of prospect depth in the Shatkins era that this collection of castoffs, longshots and low-ceiling prospects seems relatively good.

Also, the org has zero pitching above A-ball.
 
manny said:
Counterpoint: Roden is the only one on that list that projects as an everyday player. The rest are 40 or 45 FV prospects (ie AAAA or bench players). Is there actually another AAA team with objectively less upside?

But yeah, the Jays have been so starved of prospect depth in the Shatkins era that this collection of castoffs, longshots and low-ceiling prospects seems relatively good.

Also, the org has zero pitching above A-ball.
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1. Since there are currently only 68 hitting prospects in all of milb with a 50 grade or higher, that means that most AAA teams don't have more than one 50fv hitting prospects or even any at all.

2. I would guess that there are few AAA teams (if any) who could field almost an entire lineup of 40+fv guys aged 25 or younger.

3. I care more about actual performance by age than i do about prospect ranking. all of the guys i list there have put up legit good lines for their ages and levels. And some guys with good ratings there like Loperfido i actuwlly rate lower than most of the others.

4. By your own argument the Jays have 2 50fv sub-24yr old pitchers who have made AAA in Tiedemann and Bloss, and a 3rd that will be in AA soon in Yesavage.
 
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At minimum Schreck and Pinango should be improving their standing on prospect lists, also most true stud stud prospects are in AA and skip AAA
 
Or to put it a different way, there's at least 4 guys there that i'd have no issue if they were on the mlb roster right now fulltime - Roden Clase Wagner Jimenez - and another 4-5 or so that i wouldn't be surprised in the least if they were deserving of an mlb look within the next year - Orelvis, Schreck, Nunez, Kasevich, Pinango.
 
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zeke said:
1. Since there are currently only 68 hitting prospects in all of milb with a 50 grade or higher, that means that most AAA teams don't have more than one 50fv hitting prospects or even any at all.

2. I would guess that there are few AAA teams (if any) who could field almost an entire lineup of 40+fv guys aged 25 or younger.

3. I care more about actual performance by age than i do about prospect ranking. all of the guys i list there have put up legit good lines for their ages and levels. And some guys with good ratings there like Loperfido i actuwlly rate lower than most of the others.

4. By your own argument the Jays have 2 50fv sub-24yr old pitchers who have made AAA in Tiedemann and Bloss, and a 3rd that will be in AA soon in Yesavage.
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Fair. Bottom line, I see that hypothetical AAA team of 40 FV players you listed as more of a condemnation of this administration’s approach to player development than something to be proud of.

The Jays have 12 in their organization at 40 or above (of which 9 are either 40 or 40+). In comparison, Tampa has 22. Baltimore has 20. NYY 17. All have more high end prospects mixed in. Atkins has clearly prioritized getting guys like Wagner, Schreck, Clase and Loperfido in trades. Low-upside, higher floor players who are likely to end up as AAAA or MLB bench players. There are a couple of prospects with a bit of upside (Kasevich, Roden, Orelvis).

But tbh almost all of those guys will end up as tweeners. They’re 2025 versions of Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher etc and I can’t believe we still have the same guys running this org.
 
manny said:
Fair. Bottom line, I see that hypothetical AAA team of 40 FV players you listed as more of a condemnation of this administration’s approach to player development than something to be proud of.

The Jays have 12 in their organization at 40 or above (of which 9 are either 40 or 40+). In comparison, Tampa has 22. Baltimore has 20. NYY 17. All have more high end prospects mixed in. Atkins has clearly prioritized getting guys like Wagner, Schreck, Clase and Loperfido in trades. Low-upside, higher floor players who are likely to end up as AAAA or MLB bench players. There are a couple of prospects with a bit of upside (Kasevich, Roden, Orelvis).

But tbh almost all of those guys will end up as tweeners. They’re 2025 versions of Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher etc and I can’t believe we still have the same guys running this org.
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Yeah i'm not trying to say anything about the FO tbh. They are what they are. Far from the best but not the worst either.


Just looking at the actual prospects and their performances, and I think we may be in a situation in AAA that I haven't seen maybe ever - we could field nearly a full lineup of guys with age and performance that makes them look like legit prospects to me. I legit have never seen us do anything like that before.

And i'm far less confident in the specificty of the ratings - the ratings would say that a guy like Barger was low upside filler too. I don't find the likes of Clase, Orelvis, Jimenez to be particularly low upside either. And the difference between a 40 and a 45 or a 45 and a 50 can be heavily influenced by an org's reputation, so i'm not surprised that those teams with better recent prospect histories have many more marginally higher grades.

And in general i thought they did a good job getting some undervalued guys at the deadline last year, and most of those guys have continued to show they're undervalued with their performances this year.
 
zeke said:
Yeah i'm not trying to say anything about the FO tbh. They are what they are. Far from the best but not the worst either.


Just looking at the actual prospects and their performances, and I think we may be in a situation in AAA that I haven't seen maybe ever - we could field nearly a full lineup of guys with age and performance that makes them look like legit prospects to me. I legit have never seen us do anything like that before.

And i'm far less confident in the specificty of the ratings - the ratings would say that a guy like Barger was low upside filler too. I don't find the likes of Clase, Orelvis, Jimenez to be particularly low upside either. And the difference between a 40 and a 45 or a 45 and a 50 can be heavily influenced by an org's reputation, so i'm not surprised that those teams with better recent prospect histories have many more marginally higher grades.

And in general i thought they did a good job getting some undervalued guys at the deadline last year, and most of those guys have continued to show they're undervalued with their performances this year.
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And yet also the so worst at the same time
 
take a quick scan of tampa's top 10 prospects, with some jays comps:


SS C.Williams (22, 60fv): AAA 219pa, .260babip, 69wrc+
SS A.Nimmala (19, 50fv): A+ 226pa, .315babip, 138wrc+
or SS L.Jimenez (24, 45fv): out with injury - last year (23): AAA 226pa, .300babip, 135wrc+ --- MLB 210pa, .311babip, 102wrc+

SP Y.Curet (22, 50fv): out all year (shoulder), last year in A+/AA (21): 119ip, 73era-, 94fip-, 96xfip-
SP R.Tiedemann (22, 50fv): out all year (elbow), last year in A/AAA (21): 17ip, 113era-, 147fip-, 103xfip-

OF C.Simpson (24, 50fv): MLB 133pa, .318babip, 84wrc+, 0.0war --- AAA: 87pa, .319babip, 60wrc+
OF J.Clase (23, 40fv): MLB 57pa, .316babip, 83wrc+, 0.1war --------- AAA: 106pa, .438babip, 126wrc+

SP B.Hopkins (23, 50fv): AA 54ip, 95era-, 102fip-, 92xfip-
SP J.Bloss (24, 50fv): AAA 24ip, 143era-, 107fip-, 105xfip- (out for season) --- last year in AA (23): 45ip, 40era-, 80fip-, 96xfip-

1B T.Morgan (22, 50fv): AAA 113pa, .406babip, 115wrc+
OF A.Roden (25, 50fv): AAA 84pa, .371babip, 177wrc+

1B X.Isaac (21, 50fv): AA 110pa, .255babip, 175wrc+
SP T.Yesavage (21, 45+fv): A/A+ 46ip, 50era-, 59ip-, 58xfip-

2B B.Taylor (23, 45+fv): AA 186pa, .234babip, 82wrc+
2B O.Martinez (23, 40+fv): AAA 194pa, .284babip, 104wrc+

SP G.Hill (20, 45+ fv): A+ 50ip, 126era-, 119fip-, 97xfip-
OF V.Arias (21, n/a): A+ 180pa, .366babip, 124wrc+

OF T.Gillen (19, 45+fv): A 126pa, .385babip, 163wrc+
OF S.Shaw (20, 35+fv): A 164pa, .340babip, 150wrc+

OF B.Guerrero (19, 45+fv): A 130pa, .353babip, 119wrc+
C E.Duran (21, 35+fv): A 188pa, .357babip, 136wrc+




And then some other guys in AAA for Tampa

OF T.Peters (25, 40fv): AAA 222pa, .322babip, 121wrc+
OF J.Loperfido (26, 45fv): AAA 212pa, .348babip, 116wrc+

IF T.Murray (25, 40fv): AAA 245pa, .316babip, 85wrc+
OF R.Schreck (24, 40+fv): AAA 9pa, .667babip, 266wrc+ --- AA 169pa, .311babip, 166wrc+


1B B.Seymore (26, n/r): AAA 246pa, .297babip, 100wrc+
1B R.Nunez (24, n/r): AAA 151pa, .308babip, 104wrc+
 
zeke said:
Just looking at the actual prospects and their performances, and I think we may be in a situation in AAA that I haven't seen maybe ever - we could field nearly a full lineup of guys with age and performance that makes them look like legit prospects to me. I legit have never seen us do anything like that before.
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I don’t know, look at the 2023 Buffalo Bisons stats, including guys who were up and down, and the hypothetical AAA team you could have made from that group of players:

Barger (23)
Schneider (24)
Horwitz (25)
Jimenez (22)
Eden (25)
Clement (27)
Orelvis (21)
Lopez (24)
Lukes (28)

All kinds of meh, just as good at the time as this year’s group.

I would bet we will get one everyday player from that group of players you listed above (my money is on Roden, but TBD) and maybe a couple of role players, and the rest AAAA.
 
a) you're including older guys that I'm not

b) including guys like Eden who were both old and never remotely interesting statistically

c) including guys who were needed on the big club even when we were healthy, unlike the roster i put together for this year for whom there wouldn't be any room if we were healthy.

and

d) here's how those guys have done in the majors since then:


Lukes 30: 251pa, 119wrc+, 3.1war650
Horwitz 27: 493pa, 117wrc+, 2.6war650
Schneider 26: 627pa, 104wrc+, 2.5war650
Jimenez 24: 210pa, 102wrc+, 1.6war650
Clement 29: 702pa, 101wrc+, 4.2war650
Barger 25: 366pa, 94wrc+, 2.1war650
Orelvis 23: 3pa, 92wrc+, 0.0war650
Lopez 26: 614pa, 87wrc+, 3.4war650


and this year only:

Barger 25: 141pa, 132wrc+, 6.9war650
Schneider 26: 32pa, 129wrc+, 4.1war650
Lukes 30: 129pa, 123wrc+, 2.5war650
Clement 29: 198pa, 105wrc+, 5.6war650
Lopez 26: 184pa, 82wrc+, 2.8war650
Horwitz 27: 68pa, 69wrc+, 0.0war650

Jimenez 24: injured
Orelvis 23: 0pa
 
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