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OT: World Politics

View: https://x.com/academic_la/status/1800553681424933176

Sinwar feels he is winning the war, which is why he does not want a ceasefire. In his calculations, the war is being waged primarily on the PR level, and Israel is losing there in a knockout. We already knew that, but the WSJ has brought firm evidence by revealing some of his correspondence.

The WSJ analyzes correctly that "Behind his decision, messages the Hamas military leader in Gaza has sent to mediators show, is a calculation that more fighting—and more Palestinian civilian deaths—work to his advantage."

“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar said in a recent message to Hamas officials seeking to broker an agreement with Qatari and Egyptian officials.

He views the military battle as focused merely on surviving and now winning: “As long as fighters are still standing and we have not lost the war, such contacts should be immediately terminated,” he said. “We have the capabilities to continue fighting for months.”

Israel has meanwhile treated this as a purely military confrontation. Taking almost no notice of the PR element and even firing its most effective communicators like Eylon Levy for no apparent reason. It has also ignored the political aspect in Gaza and refused to create a day-after plan. Other moves like limiting (or talking about limiting) aid have also played into Sinwar's hands by emphasizing Palestinian suffering.

Sinwar has treated this as a three-dimensional conflict: military, political, and public relations. Israel has only tried to win in one dimension. That is why Sinwar gets closer to accomplishing his goals every day while Israel gets further away from victory.
lol. No they won’t.

Israel will still be 100% the bad guy in their eyes. Their only acceptable solution is that all the “white settler colonialists” vacate Israel immediately to “go back where they came from”, and cede the whole area to the glorious Hamas freedom fighters.
I assumed Josh was being sarcastic, but yeah