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OT: World Politics

my gut says he just stays and everyone gives up.

but the fact that he only gave himself 51% of the vote seems pretty weak. any evidence at all of vote shenanigans and that small lead disappears quick.
 
zeke said:
my gut says he just stays and everyone gives up.

but the fact that he only gave himself 51% of the vote seems pretty weak. any evidence at all of vote shenanigans and that small lead disappears quick.
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yah my gut is aligned with yours
 
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid says, “We are not on the brink of the abyss, we are in the abyss,” after ultranationalist protesters today invaded two military bases together with Knesset lawmakers.

“All the red lines were crossed today. MKs and ministers who participated in the invasion of violent militias into military bases constitute a message to the State of Israel: they are done with democracy, they are done with the rule of law,” he says in a statement.

“A dangerous fascist group threatens the existence of the State of Israel. They are the best thing that happened to [Gaza ruler Yahya] Sinwar and [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah. If we don’t stand up to them, the country will fall apart. If Netanyahu does not fire the ministers who participated in these violent raids today, he is not fit to represent the State of Israel,” the statement reads.
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LINK
 
lecoqsportif said:
Maduro and cronies might be seeking a safe haven for exile (with their money and other valuables.)
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Yup.


View: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1818012983194517897

There are two plays for Maduro here


1) If the military is completely on board, violence. Put down the protests with as much violence as is necessary. This will probably require arresting the leaders of the party that just won the election. Which will turn Venezuela's diaspora from a stream into a floor. I've seen projections of as much as 20% of the population fleeing within the next 24-36 months.

2) Negotiate a way out for himself and his inner circle. Exile with as much wealth as they can get (or have already gotten) out of the country.


I'm currently on #2 until the shooting starts. All of the spanish language stuff I'm seeing on Twitter feels like the beginning of a successful revolution.
 
MindzEye said:
Yup.


View: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1818012983194517897

There are two plays for Maduro here


1) If the military is completely on board, violence. Put down the protests with as much violence as is necessary. This will probably require arresting the leaders of the party that just won the election. Which will turn Venezuela's diaspora from a stream into a floor. I've seen projections of as much as 20% of the population fleeing within the next 24-36 months.

2) Negotiate a way out for himself and his inner circle. Exile with as much wealth as they can get (or have already gotten) out of the country.


I'm currently on #2 until the shooting starts. All of the spanish language stuff I'm seeing on Twitter feels like the beginning of a successful revolution.
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lol somehow i don't think the american right will be crying about tearing down THESE historical statues!
 
MindzEye said:
Yup.


View: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1818012983194517897

There are two plays for Maduro here


1) If the military is completely on board, violence. Put down the protests with as much violence as is necessary. This will probably require arresting the leaders of the party that just won the election. Which will turn Venezuela's diaspora from a stream into a floor. I've seen projections of as much as 20% of the population fleeing within the next 24-36 months.

2) Negotiate a way out for himself and his inner circle. Exile with as much wealth as they can get (or have already gotten) out of the country.


I'm currently on #2 until the shooting starts. All of the spanish language stuff I'm seeing on Twitter feels like the beginning of a successful revolution.
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The fear, I guess, is that various special forces, secret police, military and regular police units splinter to support different factions. I’m mindful of younger military officers who aren’t part of Maduro’s inner circle.
 
lecoqsportif said:
The fear, I guess, is that various special forces, secret police, military and regular police units splinter to support different factions. I’m mindful of younger military officer s who aren’t part of Maduro’s inner circle.
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Only really 2 factions though. Maduro and not Maduro. If the security apparatus splinters and even some people with guns trickle over to the other side, this is over quickly imo.
 
MindzEye said:
Only really 2 factions though. Maduro and not Maduro. If the security apparatus splinters and even some people with guns trickle over to the other side, this is over quickly imo.
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There can be a further splintering if Maduro flees and different power centres go for gold.
 
lecoqsportif said:
There can be a further splintering if Maduro flees and different power centres go for gold.
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Sure, but I don't think we're in a sectarian Iraq scenario here. Maybe if the military goes their own way entirely and Junta's. They're the only other group with the ability to force the end of protests, and install administration over the country. But that would be a pretty significant move on their own if Maduro was already on his way out the door.
 
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